猜疑正在削弱美国经济(上)

制造商库存，耐用品订单，非农就业人数，通胀调整后的国内生产总值——这些沉闷的报道告诉了我们经济状况如何。

双语精读

Manufacturer inventories. Durable-goods orders. Nonfarm payrolls. Inflation-adjusted GDP. These are the dreary reportables that tell us how our economy is doing. And many of them look a whole lot better now than they did at their early-pandemic depths.

制造商库存，耐用品订单，非农就业人数，通胀调整后的国内生产总值——这些沉闷的报道告诉了我们经济状况如何，其中许多数据在现在看来比大流行初期（的惨淡情形）好多了。

But what if there's another factor we're missing? What if the data points are obscuring a deepening recession in a commodity that underpins them all?

但是，如果我们忽略了另一个因素呢？如果这些数据点掩盖了支撑它们的大宗商品日益加深的衰退，那又会怎样呢？

Trust. Without it, Adam Smith's invisible hand stays in its pocket; Keynes's "animal spirits" are muted.

信任。没有它，亚当·斯密的“看不见的手”就会留在口袋里；凯恩斯的“动物精神”就会被压制。

"Virtually every commercial transaction has within itself an element of trust," the Nobel Prize-winning economist Kenneth Arrow wrote in 1972. But trust is less quantifiable than other forms of capital. Its decline is vaguely felt before it's plainly seen.

诺贝尔经济学奖得主肯尼斯·阿罗在1972年写道：“几乎每一笔商业交易本身都有信任的成分。”但是与其他形式的资本相比，“信任”更难量化。信任衰退在被明显看到之前就已经能被隐约感知了。

As companies have gone virtual during the coronavirus pandemic, supervisors wonder whether their remote workers are in fact working. New colleagues arrive and leave without ever having met.

由于在冠状病毒大流行期间公司都实现了虚拟化办公，管理者对他们的远程员工是否真的在工作心存疑虑。新同事来来去去，大家却未曾谋面。

Direct reports ask if they could have that casual understanding put down in writing. No one knows whether the boss's cryptic closing remark was ironic or hostile.

直接下属询问他们是否可以将这种非正式的理解写下来。没人知道老板隐晦的结束语是讽刺还是敌意。

Sadly, those suspicions may have some basis in fact. The longer employees were apart from one another during the pandemic, a recent study of more than 5,400 Finnish workers found, the more their faith in colleagues fell.

可悲的是，这些怀疑可能有一些事实依据。最近一项针对5400多名芬兰员工的研究发现，疫情期间员工彼此分开的时间越长，他们对同事的信心就越低。

Ward van Zoonen of Erasmus University, in the Netherlands, began measuring trust among those office workers early in 2020. He asked them: How much did they trust their peers? How much did they trust their supervisors? And how much did they believe that those people trusted them?

荷兰伊拉斯谟大学的沃德·范·佐宁从2020年初开始评测这些办公室职员的信任度。他询问这些员工：他们有多信任自己的同事？有多信任自己的管理者？在多大程度上相信那些人也同样信赖他们?

What he found was unsettling. In March 2020, trust levels were fairly high. By May, they had slipped. By October-about seven months into the pandemic-the employees' degree of confidence in one another was down substantially.

他的发现令人不安。2020年3月，信任度还相当高。到了5月，信任度就已经下滑了。到了10月，大约在疫情大流行的七个月后，员工之间的信任度大幅下降。

Another survey, by the Centre for Transformative Work Design in Australia, found bosses having trust issues too. About 60 percent of supervisors doubted or were unsure that remote workers performed as well or were as motivated as those in the office.

澳大利亚变革工作设计中心的另一项调查发现，老板们也存在信任问题。大约60%的管理者怀疑或不确定远程员工的表现是否和办公室里的员工一样出色或者动力十足。

Meanwhile, demand for employee-surveillance software has skyrocketed more than 50 percent since before the pandemic. And this spring, American employees were leaving their jobs at the highest rate since at least 2000.

与此同时，与疫情之前相比，对员工监控软件的需求飙升了50%以上。今年春天，美国员工的离职率达到了至少2000年以来的最高水平。

词汇预习

• economy [高考]

  美[ɪˈkɑːnəmi] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmi]

  n. 经济；节约 adj. 经济的；廉价的

• virtual [高考]

  美[ˈvɜːrtʃuəl] | 英[ˈvɜːtʃuəl]

  adj. 实质的；【计】虚拟的

• fairly [高考]

  美[ˈferli] | 英[ˈfeəli]

  adv. 公正地；相当地

• element [高考]

  美[ˈelɪmənt] | 英[ˈelɪmənt]

  n. 要素；元素；（学科的）基本原则；(复数)恶劣天气；元件

• invisible [高考]

  美[ɪnˈvɪzəbl] | 英[ɪnˈvɪzəbl]

  adj. 看不见的；无形的 n. 隐形人(或物)

• transaction [高考]

  美[trænˈzækʃn] | 英[trænˈzækʃn]

  n. 交易；办理；处理；事务

• economist [高考]

  美[ɪˈkɑnəmɪst] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmɪst]

  n. 经济学家；[古]节俭的人

• within [高考]

  美[wɪˈðɪn] | 英[wɪˈðɪn]

  prep. 在(某段时间、距离或范围)内；在…里面 adv. 在…里面 n. 内部

• demand [高考]

  美[dɪˈmænd] | 英[dɪˈmɑːnd]

  n. 要求；需求 v. 要求；查问；需要

• data [高考]

  美[ˈdeɪtə] | 英[ˈdeɪtə]

  n. 数据；资料

• rate [高考]

  美[reɪt] | 英[reɪt]

  n. 比率；速度；价格；费用；等级 v. 认为；估价；定等级；值得；怒斥；责骂

• decline [高考]

  美[dɪˈklaɪn] | 英[dɪˈklaɪn]

  v. 下降；减少；变弱；拒绝；倾斜 n. 减少，衰退

• commercial [高考]

  美[kəˈmɜːrʃl] | 英[kəˈmɜːʃl]

  adj. 商业的 n. 商业广告

• remote [高考]

  美[rɪˈmoʊt] | 英[rɪˈməʊt]

  adj. 遥远的；偏僻的；远程的；(感情等)距离很大 n. 远程操作

• faith [高考]

  美[feɪθ] | 英[feɪθ]

  n. 信仰；信念；信任

• software [高考]

  美[ˈsɔːftwer] | 英[ˈsɒftweə(r)]

  n. 软件

• casual [高考]

  美[ˈkæʒuəl] | 英[ˈkæʒuəl]

  adj. 非正式的；漫不经心的；偶然的；临时的；休闲的 n. 便装；临时工

• remark [高考]

  美[rɪˈmɑːrk] | 英[rɪˈmɑːk]

  n. 评论；备注；注意 v. 评论；注意到

• demand for [高考]

  美[dɪˈmænd fɔr] | 英[diˈmɑ:nd fɔ:]

  对 ... 的要求； 对 ... 的需求

• apart from [高考]

  美[əˈpɑːrt frəm] | 英[əˈpɑːt frəm]

  缺少；除 ... 以外；且不说

• what if [高考]

  美[hwɑt ɪf] | 英[hwɔt if]

  如果 ... 将会怎么样

• basis [高考]

  美[ˈbeɪsɪs] | 英[ˈbeɪsɪs]

  n. 基础；根据；基底

• hostile [高考]

  美[ˈhɑːstl] | 英[ˈhɒstaɪl]

  adj. 敌对的；怀敌意的

• van [高考]

  美[væn] | 英[væn]

  n. 客货车；厢式送货车；面包车（通常为 12 座左右） v. 用车搬运(货物)

• recession [四级]

  美[rɪˈseʃn] | 英[rɪˈseʃn]

  n. 后退；（经济）不景气

• unsure [四级]

  美[ˌʌnˈʃʊr] | 英[ˌʌnˈʃʊə(r)]

  adj. 不肯定的；不确定的；没有自信的

• commodity [四级]

  美[kəˈmɑːdəti] | 英[kəˈmɒdəti]

  n. 商品；日用品；有价值之物

• quantifiable [六级]

  美[kwɑntɪ'faɪəbl] | 英['kwɒntɪfaɪəbl]

  adj. 可以计量的；可量化的

• faith in [六级]

  美[feθ ɪn] | 英[feiθ in]

  对 ... 的信心

• surveillance [六级]

  美[sɜːrˈveɪləns] | 英[sɜːˈveɪləns]

  n. 监视；监督

• fell [专四]

  美[fel] | 英[fel]

  vt. 砍伐；击倒 n. 丘原；沼泽地 adj. 凶残的；毁灭性的

• dreary [专四]

  美[ˈdrɪri] | 英[ˈdrɪəri]

  adj. 沉闷的；令人沮丧的；情绪低落的

• felt [专八]

  美[fɛlt] | 英[felt]

  n. 毛毡；毡制品 vt. 制毡；使粘结 vi. 毡合

• cryptic [专八]

  美[ˈkrɪptɪk] | 英[ˈkrɪptɪk]

  adj. 隐秘的；秘密的；用密码的；隐晦的

• ironic [考研]

  美[aɪˈrɑnɪk] | 英[aɪˈrɒnɪk]

  adj. 说反话的；讽刺的

• substantially [考研]

  美[səbˈstænʃəli] | 英[səbˈstænʃəli]

  adv. 大体上；实质上；非常

重点讲解

Manufacturer inventories. Durable-goods orders. Nonfarm payrolls. Inflation-adjusted GDP. These are the dreary reportables that tell us how our economy is doing. And many of them look a whole lot better now than they did at their early-pandemic depths.

制造商库存，耐用品订单，非农就业人数，通胀调整后的国内生产总值——这些沉闷的报道告诉了我们经济状况如何，其中许多数据在现在看来比大流行初期（的惨淡情形）好多了。

payroll   n. （公司员工的）工资名单；（公司的）发放工资总额；受聘职员总数

【例】They had 87,000 employees on the payroll.

他们有87000人在在职人员工薪名册上。

【拓展】roll   v. & n.

1. 作动词，翻转，滚动

【例】The ball rolled down the hill.

球滚下了山。

2. 作名词，卷轴；花名册

【例】a roll of film 一卷胶卷

call the roll/ take the roll 点名（v.）／roll call 点名（n.）

electoral roll 选民名册

depth   n.

1. 深度

【例】The smaller lake ranges from five to fourteen feet in depth.

这个较小的湖的深度在5至14英尺之间。

2. 强烈程度

（英文释义：the quality of being intense or extreme.）

【例】The country's leadership had underestimated the depth of the crisis.

这个国家的领导层低估了这次危机的严重程度。

But what if there's another factor we're missing? What if the data points are obscuring a deepening recession in a commodity that underpins them all?

但是，如果我们忽略了另一个因素呢？如果这些数据点掩盖了支撑它们的大宗商品日益加深的衰退，那又会怎样呢？

underpin   v. 加强，巩固，构成（…的基础等）

【例】The report is underpinned by extensive research.

这份报告以广泛的研究为基础。

Trust. Without it, Adam Smith's invisible hand stays in its pocket; Keynes's "animal spirits" are muted.

信任。没有它，亚当·斯密的“看不见的手”就会留在口袋里；凯恩斯的“动物精神”就会被压制。

in the pocket of sb/ be in sb’s pocket

（英文释义：to be controlled or strongly influenced by someone in authority, and willing to do whatever they want）

【例】The judge was in the defense lawyer’s pocket.

法官被辩护律师收买了。

"Virtually**** every commercial**** transaction has within**** itself**** an**** element of**** trust," the Nobel Prize-winning economist Kenneth Arrow wrote in**** 1972****.**** But trust is**** less**** quantifiable**** than**** other forms of**** capital.**** Its decline is**** vaguely felt**** before**** it****'s plainly seen****.****

诺贝尔经济学奖得主肯尼斯·阿罗在1972年写道：“几乎每一笔商业交易本身都有信任的成分。”但是与其他形式的资本相比，“信任”更难量化。信任衰退在被明显看到之前就已经能被隐约感知了。

As**** companies have**** gone**** virtual during**** the coronavirus pandemic****,**** supervisors wonder**** whether their remote**** workers are in**** fact**** working.**** New colleagues**** arrive**** and leave without ever**** having**** met.****

由于在冠状病毒大流行期间公司都实现了虚拟化办公，管理者对他们的远程员工是否真的在工作心存疑虑。新同事来来去去，大家却未曾谋面。

Direct reports ask if they could have that casual understanding put down in writing. No one knows whether the boss's cryptic closing remark was ironic or hostile.

直接下属询问他们是否可以将这种非正式的理解写下来。没人知道老板隐晦的结束语是讽刺还是敌意。

put down

1. 写下

【例】The journalists simply put down what they thought they heard.

记者们只是记下他们认为自己听到的东西。

2. 镇压 (暴动、叛乱)

【例】Soldiers went in to put down a rebellion.

士兵们攻进去镇压了一场叛乱。

3. 杀死 (危险或病重的动物)

【例】We had to have our cat put down.

我们只得用药结束了猫的生命。

hostile   adj.

1. 敌意的，敌对的；

（英文释义：very unfriendly or aggressive and ready to argue or fight）

【例】Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.

许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

2. （环境和条件等）不利的

（英文释义：Hostile situations and conditions make it difficult for you to achieve something.）

【例】hostile conditions for plants to grow in 不利于植物生长的环境

Sadly, those suspicions may have some basis in fact. The longer employees were apart from one another during the pandemic, a recent study of more than 5,400 Finnish workers found, the more their faith in colleagues fell.

可悲的是，这些怀疑可能有一些事实依据。最近一项针对5400多名芬兰员工的研究发现，疫情期间员工彼此分开的时间越长，他们对同事的信心就越低。

faith   n.

1. 宗教信仰

【例】to lose your faith 失去信仰

2. 信任；相信；信心

【搭配】have faith in sb/ sth   对...有信心

lose faith in sth   不再相信...

【例】Her friend's kindness has restored her faith in human nature.

她朋友的善意使她恢复了对人性的信心。

Ward van Zoonen of Erasmus University, in the Netherlands, began measuring trust among those office workers early in 2020. He asked them: How much did they trust their peers? How much did they trust their supervisors? And how much did they believe that those people trusted them?

荷兰伊拉斯谟大学的沃德·范·佐宁从2020年初开始评测这些办公室职员的信任度。他询问这些员工：他们有多信任自己的同事？有多信任自己的管理者？在多大程度上相信那些人也同样信赖他们?

unsettling   adj. 令人担忧的; 令人不安的

（英文释义：If you describe something as unsettling, you mean that it makes you feel worried or uncertain.）

【例】Phil had several unsettling dreams every night.

菲尔每晚都做好几个令他不安的梦。

【拓展】unsettle   v. 使心神不宁；扰乱；使担忧

【例】Changing schools might unsettle the kids.

转学会让孩子心情不能安稳。

substantially   adv. 大量地；大体上；很大程度地

【例】The percentage of girls in engineering has increased substantially.

工科女生的比例已经大大增长了。

【拓展】近义词：considerably   adv. 非常，相当多地

【例】The need for sleep varies considerably from person to person.

不同的人对睡眠的需要差异相当大。

What he found was unsettling. In March 2020, trust levels were fairly high. By May, they had slipped. By October—about seven months into the pandemic—the employees' degree of confidence in one another was down substantially.

他的发现令人不安。2020年3月，信任度还相当高。到了5月，信任度就已经下滑了。到了10月，大约在疫情大流行的七个月后，员工之间的信任度大幅下降。

unsettling   adj. 令人担忧的; 令人不安的

（英文释义：If you describe something as unsettling, you mean that it makes you feel worried or uncertain.）

【例】Phil had several unsettling dreams every night.

菲尔每晚都做好几个令他不安的梦。

【拓展】unsettle   v. 使心神不宁；扰乱；使担忧

【例】Changing schools might unsettle the kids.

转学会让孩子心情不能安稳。

substantially   adv. 大量地；大体上；很大程度地

【例】The percentage of girls in engineering has increased substantially.

工科女生的比例已经大大增长了。

【拓展】近义词：considerably   adv. 非常，相当多地

【例】The need for sleep varies considerably from person to person.

不同的人对睡眠的需要差异相当大。

Another survey, by the Centre for Transformative Work Design in Australia, found bosses having trust issues too. About 60 percent of supervisors doubted or were unsure that remote workers performed as well or were as motivated as those in the office.

澳大利亚变革工作设计中心的另一项调查发现，老板们也存在信任问题。大约60%的管理者怀疑或不确定远程员工的表现是否和办公室里的员工一样出色或者动力十足。

surveillance   n. 监视

（英文释义：Surveillance is the careful watching of someone, especially by an organization such as the police or the army.）

【搭配】under surveillance   在监视之下

【例】The police are keeping the suspects under constant surveillance.

警方正对嫌疑人实施不间断监视。

skyrocket   n. & v.

1. 作名词，流星烟火；冲天火箭

2. 作动词，剧增，猛涨

（英文释义：(of prices, etc.) to rise quickly to a very high level

【例】Production has dropped while prices and unemployment have skyrocketed.

在物价和失业人数猛增的同时，生产却下降了。

【拓展】skyscraper 摩天大楼

Meanwhile, demand for employee-surveillance software has skyrocketed more than 50 percent since before the pandemic. And this spring, American employees were leaving their jobs at the highest rate since at least 2000.

与此同时，与疫情之前相比，对员工监控软件的需求飙升了50%以上。今年春天，美国员工的离职率达到了至少2000年以来的最高水平。

surveillance   n. 监视

（英文释义：Surveillance is the careful watching of someone, especially by an organization such as the police or the army.）

【搭配】under surveillance   在监视之下

【例】The police are keeping the suspects under constant surveillance.

警方正对嫌疑人实施不间断监视。

skyrocket   n. & v.

1. 作名词，流星烟火；冲天火箭

2. 作动词，剧增，猛涨

（英文释义：(of prices, etc.) to rise quickly to a very high level

【例】Production has dropped while prices and unemployment have skyrocketed.

在物价和失业人数猛增的同时，生产却下降了。

【拓展】skyscraper 摩天大楼

课后练习

• What can be learned about current economy?

  A. Economic data are more disappointing than before.

  B. The facts of recession are ignored by news reports.

  C. The economy may be adversely affected by mistrust.

  D. The invisible-hand theory is likely to stimulate the market.

• According to Kenneth Arrow, one of the characteristics of trust is that ____.

  A. it remains an obscure problem for economists

  B. it plays an important role in economic activities

  C. it has a greater value than other forms of capital

  D. it has been in a slow decline since the 1970s

• What problem do companies face during the pandemic?

  A. The inefficiency of remote working.

  B. The high rate of resignation.

  C. The disorganization of documents.

  D. The feeling of suspicion among workers.

• What did Ward van Zoonen find?

  A. Faith in colleagues is connected with face-to-face interaction.

  B. Office workers trust their peers more than their supervisors.

  C. Trust levels in workplaces are declining due to the pandemic.

  D. Employees have less and less confidence in their job prospect.

• Which of the following statements is true about bosses?

  A. They have doubt about remote workers’ performance.

  B. They encourage employees to work in the office.

  C. They are trying to monitor employees’ private life.

  D. They have provoked protests from American employees.