美联储十次加息后或暂停加息(下)

自3月初以来，已有三家大型银行倒闭，需要政府出面。

双语精读

Since early March, three large banks have collapsed and required government intervention.

自3月初以来，已有三家大型银行倒闭，需要政府出面。

Mr. Powell suggested that trouble in the sector was causing at least some banks to pull back on extending credit, but was clear that the extent of the impact was uncertain.

鲍威尔暗示，银行业的问题导致至少部分银行减少了信贷发放，但他明确表示，这种影响的程度尚不确定。

If consumer spending continues to chug along in spite of the banking upheaval and higher interest rates, it could allow companies to continue raising prices. In that case, the Fed may need to do more to make sure that inflation comes back under control.

如果消费者支出在银行业动荡和利率上升的情况下仍勉力增长，这可能会让企业继续提价。在这种情况下，美联储可能需要采取更多措施，以确保通胀得到控制。

But if the economy is barreling toward a recession in light of recent developments, the Fed might instead strike a more cautious stance.

但是，如果根据最近的事态发展，经济朝衰退的方向猛冲，那么美联储可能会采取更谨慎的立场。

Julia Coronado, the president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, thought Fed officials were likely to pause.

宏观政策展望的总裁兼创始人朱莉娅·科罗纳多认为，美联储官员可能会暂停加息。

She said that although she thought inflation could remain high in the next few months, she expected to see a more substantial moderation in the second half of the year as price increases for rent and used and new cars slowed.

她说，尽管她认为通胀可能在未来几个月保持在高位，但她预计随着租金、二手车和新车价格上涨放缓，下半年的通胀率将出现更大幅度的缓和。

"It's not like inflation is going to suddenly start cooling," she said. "But the economy will be cooling and the banking distress will remain front and center, and that will add to the credit tightening the economy has to absorb."

"通胀不会突然开始降温，"她说。"但经济会降温，银行业的困境仍将是首要问题，这将加剧信贷紧缩问题，而这是经济将必须承担的。"

When the Fed raises interest rates, it makes it more expensive, and often more difficult, for families to take out loans to buy houses or cars, or for businesses to raise money for expansions. That slows both consumer spending and hiring.

当美联储加息时，家庭贷款购房或购车、企业融资扩张的成本就更高也更难。这既减缓了消费者支出，也减缓了招聘。

As wage growth sags and unemployment rises, people become more cautious and the economy decelerates further. That chain reaction can be painful.

随着工资增长放缓，失业率上升，人们将变得更加谨慎，而经济发展将进一步减速。这种连锁反应是很痛苦的。

When Paul Volcker's Fed raised interest rates to nearly 20 percent in the early 1980s, it helped to push joblessness above 10 percent.

当保罗·沃尔克时代的美联储在20世纪80年代初将利率提高到近20%时，利率也将失业率推高至10%以上。

But today's Fed does not expect to raise interest rates nearly that high, and officials have been hoping they can engineer a "soft landing": a situation in which the economy pulls back enough to return inflation to normal, but not so much that lots of people lose their jobs.

但现在的美联储不会将利率提高到这么高的水平，官员们也一直希望他们能够策划一场"软着陆"：经济回落到足以让通胀恢复正常的程度，但又不至于回落太多而让很多人失去工作。

Mr. Powell has maintained that a positive outcome like that might still be possible. Fed staff members, by contrast, think a mild recession is likely this year, Mr. Powell said.

鲍威尔坚持认为，像这样的积极结果仍有可能出现。鲍威尔说，与他形成对比，美联储工作人员则认为今年可能出现温和衰退。

词汇预习

• economy [高考]

  美[ɪˈkɑːnəmi] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmi]

  n. 经济；节约 adj. 经济的；廉价的

• impact [高考]

  美[ˈɪmpækt , ɪmˈpækt] | 英[ˈɪmpækt , ɪmˈpækt]

  n. 影响；冲击力；撞击 vt. 挤入；压紧；撞击；对 ... 发生影响 vi. 冲击；撞击；产生影响

• reaction [高考]

  美[riˈækʃn] | 英[riˈækʃn]

  n. 反应；生理反应；反应能力；复旧；反动；化学反应

• contrast [高考]

  美[ˈkɑːntræst , kənˈtræst] | 英[ˈkɒntrɑːst , kənˈtrɑːst]

  n. 对比；差别；对照物 v. 对比；成对照 n. [计算机] 反差

• founder [高考]

  美[ˈfaʊndɚ] | 英[ˈfaʊndə(r)]

  n. 创立者 v. 摔倒；失败；沉没；弄跛

• spite [高考]

  美[spaɪt] | 英[spaɪt]

  n. 恶意；怨恨 v. 刁难；惹怒；冒犯

• sector [高考]

  美[ˈsektər] | 英[ˈsektə(r)]

  n. 部门；部分；区域 n. [计]扇形；扇区 vt. 使分成部分

• extent [高考]

  美[ɪkˈstent] | 英[ɪkˈstent]

  n. 广度； 宽度； 长度； 大小； 范围； 程度 n. [律][英]扣押； [美]临时所有权令

• growth [高考]

  美[ɡroʊθ] | 英[ɡrəʊθ]

  n. 【U】增长；生长；发展；种植 n. 【C】生长物；【医】瘤;赘生物

• absorb [高考]

  美[əbˈzɔːrb] | 英[əbˈzɔːb]

  vt. 吸收；吸引 ... 的注意；吞并；承受

• cautious [高考]

  美[ˈkɔːʃəs] | 英[ˈkɔːʃəs]

  adj. 谨慎的；十分小心的

• outcome [高考]

  美[ˈaʊtkʌm] | 英[ˈaʊtkʌm]

  n. 结果，成果，效果，结局

• pause [高考]

  美[pɔːz] | 英[pɔːz]

  n. 暂停；中止；犹豫不决 vi. 停顿；中止

• uncertain [高考]

  美[ʌnˈsɜːrtn] | 英[ʌnˈsɜːtn]

  adj. 不确定的；不稳定的；易变的

• mild [高考]

  美[maɪld] | 英[maɪld]

  adj. 温和的；柔和的；宽大的；清淡的

• unemployment [高考]

  美[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt] | 英[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt]

  n. 失业；失业人数

• wage [高考]

  美[weɪdʒ] | 英[weɪdʒ]

  n. 工资；报酬 v. 开展；从事；进行(战争、运动)

• in spite of [高考]

  美[ɪn spaɪt əv] | 英[ɪn spaɪt əv]

  不顾；不管；尽管

• under control [高考]

  美['ʌndər kən'troʊl] | 英['ʌndə kən'trəʊl]

  处于控制之下

• further [高考]

  美[ˈfɜːrðər] | 英[ˈfɜːðə(r)]

  adv. 更远地，再往前地；进一步；此外，而且 adj. 更多的，进一步的；（距离上）更远的，较远的 v. 促进，推进

• intervention [高考]

  美[ˌɪntərˈvenʃn] | 英[ˌɪntəˈvenʃn]

  n. 介入；干预；调停

• substantial [高考]

  美[səbˈstænʃl] | 英[səbˈstænʃl]

  adj. 大量的；坚固的；实质的；可观的 n. 本质；重要部份

• distress [四级]

  美[dɪˈstres] | 英[dɪˈstres]

  n. 不幸；危难；苦恼；痛苦 vt. 使苦恼；使痛苦

• recession [四级]

  美[rɪˈseʃn] | 英[rɪˈseʃn]

  n. 后退；（经济）不景气

• inflation [四级]

  美[ɪnˈfleɪʃn] | 英[ɪnˈfleɪʃn]

  n. 通货膨胀；膨胀

• in light of [四级]

  美[ɪn laɪt əv] | 英[ɪn laɪt əv]

  adj. 考虑到(从 ... 观点； 由于 ... 结果)

• stance [六级]

  美[stæns] | 英[stæns]

  n. 立场；态度；站立姿势

• tightening [专四]

  美['taɪtnɪŋ] | 英['taɪtnɪŋ]

  n. 上紧；固定；紧密

• landing [专四]

  美[ˈlændɪŋ] | 英[ˈlændɪŋ]

  n. 着陆；登陆；登陆处；楼梯平台

• moderation [雅思]

  美[ˌmɑdəˈreɪʃn] | 英[ˌmɒdəˈreɪʃn]

  n. 缓和；适度；节制；计分审核制

重点讲解

Since early March, three large banks have collapsed and required government intervention.

自3月初以来，已有三家大型银行倒闭，需要政府出面。

intervention   n. 介入；干预；干涉

【例】military intervention  军事干涉

【拓展】circumvention  n. 绕道；设法规避

Mr. Powell suggested that trouble in the sector was causing at least some banks to pull back on extending credit, but was clear that the extent of the impact was uncertain.

鲍威尔暗示，银行业的问题导致至少部分银行减少了信贷发放，但他明确表示，这种影响的程度尚不确定。

pull back on sth   减少某事

【例】Businesses have already pulled back on corporate travel.

企业已经减少了派人出差。

If consumer spending continues to chug along in spite of the banking upheaval and higher interest rates, it could allow companies to continue raising prices. In that case, the Fed may need to do more to make sure that inflation comes back under control.

如果消费者支出在银行业动荡和利率上升的情况下仍勉力增长，这可能会让企业继续提价。在这种情况下，美联储可能需要采取更多措施，以确保通胀得到控制。

upheaval   n. 剧变；动乱

【例】the upheaval of war/the pandemic  战争/疫情引起的剧变

But if the economy is barreling toward a recession in light of recent developments, the Fed might instead strike a more cautious stance.

但是，如果根据最近的事态发展，经济朝衰退的方向猛冲，那么美联储可能会采取更谨慎的立场。

strike  v. 采取（某种姿态）

【例】strike a pose/a certain attitude   摆姿势/采取某种态度

【拓展】take/assume/adopt a stance  采取某种立场

Julia Coronado, the president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, thought Fed officials were likely to pause.

宏观政策展望的总裁兼创始人朱莉娅·科罗纳多认为，美联储官员可能会暂停加息。

moderation   n. 

1. 缓和；减轻

【例】the moderation of the hot weather 炎热天气的消退

2. 适度；节制

【例】Alcohol should only be taken in moderation.

饮酒一定要适量。

【拓展】moderate  adj./v. 适度的；温和的/缓和；使适中

【例】moderate policies/to moderate one’s tone  温和的政策/使语气变温和

She said that although she thought inflation could remain high in the next few months, she expected to see a more substantial moderation in the second half of the year as price increases for rent and used and new cars slowed.

她说，尽管她认为通胀可能在未来几个月保持在高位，但她预计随着租金、二手车和新车价格上涨放缓，下半年的通胀率将出现更大幅度的缓和。

moderation   n. 

1. 缓和；减轻

【例】the moderation of the hot weather 炎热天气的消退

2. 适度；节制

【例】Alcohol should only be taken in moderation.

饮酒一定要适量。

【拓展】moderate  adj./v. 适度的；温和的/缓和；使适中

【例】moderate policies/to moderate one’s tone  温和的政策/使语气变温和

"It’s not like inflation is going to suddenly start cooling," she said. "But the economy will be cooling and the banking distress will remain front and center, and that will add to the credit tightening the economy has to absorb."

"通胀不会突然开始降温，"她说。"但经济会降温，银行业的困境仍将是首要问题，这将加剧信贷紧缩问题，而这是经济将必须承担的。"

front and center   位于首要位置的；处于第一位的

【例】For now, her career is front and center.

目前，她的事业排在第一位。

absorb   v. 

1. 承担；经受

【例】The company was able to absorb the huge losses. 

公司承受住了这一巨大损失。

2. 耗费，耗去（大量金钱、时间等）

【例】The new proposals would absorb $80 billion of the federal budget. 

这些新提案将耗费800亿元联邦政府预算。

When the Fed raises interest rates, it makes it more expensive, and often more difficult, for families to take out loans to buy houses or cars, or for businesses to raise money for expansions. That slows both consumer spending and hiring.

当美联储加息时，家庭贷款购房或购车、企业融资扩张的成本就更高也更难。这既减缓了消费者支出，也减缓了招聘。

sag   v. 

1. （由于重量而）下垂

【例】Your skin starts to sag as you get older. 

人老了，皮肤就会慢慢松弛。

2. 减少；下降

【例】The volume of goods sold in stores sagged.

商店的销售量下降。

3. 变得乏味；拉胯

【例】The movie was arresting at first, but then it sagged halfway through.

电影刚开始很吸引人，但到了中间部分就开始无聊了。

As wage growth sags and unemployment rises, people become more cautious and the economy decelerates further. That chain reaction can be painful.

随着工资增长放缓，失业率上升，人们将变得更加谨慎，而经济发展将进一步减速。这种连锁反应是很痛苦的。

sag   v. 

1. （由于重量而）下垂

【例】Your skin starts to sag as you get older. 

人老了，皮肤就会慢慢松弛。

2. 减少；下降

【例】The volume of goods sold in stores sagged.

商店的销售量下降。

3. 变得乏味；拉胯

【例】The movie was arresting at first, but then it sagged halfway through.

电影刚开始很吸引人，但到了中间部分就开始无聊了。

When Paul Volcker’s Fed raised interest rates to nearly 20 percent in the early 1980s, it helped to push joblessness above 10 percent.

当保罗·沃尔克时代的美联储在20世纪80年代初将利率提高到近20%时，利率也将失业率推高至10%以上。

engineer   v. 巧妙地策划；安排

【例】The administration engineered a compromise.

政府策划了折衷妥协。

【拓展】genetically engineered  转基因的

not so much that...   没有到……的地步

【例】I like the band’s music, but not so much that I would like to go to their concert.

我挺喜欢那个乐队的歌，但没喜欢到想去听他们的演唱会的程度。

But today’s Fed does not expect to raise interest rates nearly that high, and officials have been hoping they can engineer a "soft landing": a situation in which the economy pulls back enough to return inflation to normal, but not so much that lots of people lose their jobs.

但现在的美联储不会将利率提高到这么高的水平，官员们也一直希望他们能够策划一场"软着陆"：经济回落到足以让通胀恢复正常的程度，但又不至于回落太多而让很多人失去工作。

engineer   v. 巧妙地策划；安排

【例】The administration engineered a compromise.

政府策划了折衷妥协。

【拓展】genetically engineered  转基因的

not so much that...   没有到……的地步

【例】I like the band’s music, but not so much that I would like to go to their concert.

我挺喜欢那个乐队的歌，但没喜欢到想去听他们的演唱会的程度。

Mr. Powell has maintained that a positive outcome like that might still be possible. Fed staff members, by contrast, think a mild recession is likely this year, Mr. Powell said.

鲍威尔坚持认为，像这样的积极结果仍有可能出现。鲍威尔说，与他形成对比，美联储工作人员则认为今年可能出现温和衰退。

mild   adj. 温和的；轻微的

【例】a mild disease/climate   病势轻微/温和的气候

【拓展】mild, moderate and severe pain  轻度、中度、重度疼痛 

课后练习

• The Federal Reserve might pause rate increases if ____.

  A. banks start to increase lending

  B. consumer spending remains strong

  C. companies continue to raise prices

  D. the economy threatens to weaken

• Julia Coronado believed that the Fed might pause because ____.

  A. rate increases were ineffective for inflation

  B. prices would fall back to the normal level

  C. the economy might cool down faster than inflation

  D. the impact of banking problems might be offset

• When the Fed raises interest rates, ____.

  A. the price of houses might increase

  B. business competition might be fiercer

  C. unemployment rate would soar

  D. household savings would shrink

• What do Fed officials hope to achieve?

  A. A target of lower interest rates.

  B. A harmless economic slowdown.

  C. A preventive plan for unemployment.

  D. A mild recession as early as this year.