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佛蒙特州成为美国老龄化社会前兆(上)
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佛蒙特州劳动年龄人口所占的比例比其他各州都小。它为美国其他地区的发展前景提供了前车之鉴。
双语精读
At Lake Champlain Chocolates, the owners take shifts stacking boxes in the warehouse. At Burlington Bagel Bakery, a sign in the window advertises wages starting at $25 an hour.
在尚普兰湖巧克力工厂，工厂老板们轮换班地在仓库码箱子。在伯灵顿的贝果面包店，橱窗里的一块牌子上写着招工广告，工资每小时25美元起步。
Central Vermont Medical Center is training administrative employees to become nurses. Cabot Creamery is bringing workers from out of state to package its signature blocks of Cheddar cheese.
佛蒙特中部医疗中心正在培训行政人员成为护士。卡博特乳品公司正从其他州招募工人，来为其招牌产品切达奶酪打包装盒。
The root of the staffing challenge is simple: Vermont's population is rapidly aging. More than a fifth of Vermonters are 65 or older, and more than 35 percent are over 54, the age at which Americans typically begin to exit the work force.
人员短缺问题的根源很简单：佛蒙特州的人口正在迅速老龄化。佛蒙特州超过五分之一的人年龄在65岁或以上，超过35%的人在54岁以上，这是美国人通常开始退休的年龄。
No state has a smaller share of its residents in their prime working years. Vermont offers an early look at where the rest of the country could be headed. The baby boom population is aging out of the work force, and subsequent generations aren't large enough to replace it.
佛蒙特州劳动年龄人口所占的比例比其他各州都小。它为美国其他地区的发展前景提供了前车之鉴。婴儿潮一代正在变老并退出劳动力大军，而随后几代人的数量还不足以完全替代婴儿潮一代。
Immigration slumped during the pandemic, and though it has since rebounded, it is unclear how long that will last, given a lack of broad political support for higher immigration.
疫情期间移民人数大幅下降，尽管之后有所反弹，但鉴于缺乏对增加移民的广泛政治支持，目前还不清楚移民人数会持续增长多久。
Birthrates are falling. "All of these things point in the direction of prolonged labor scarcity," said David Autor, an economist who has studied long-term work force trends.
人口出生率也正在下降。“所有这些因素都指向劳动力长期短缺。”研究长期劳动力趋势的经济学家大卫·奥托尔说。
Employers are fighting over scarce workers, offering wage increases, signing bonuses and child care subsidies, alongside enticements such as free ski passes. When those tactics fail, many are limiting operating hours and scaling back product offerings.
雇主们正在争夺稀缺的工人，提供加薪、签约奖金和育儿补贴，以及免费滑雪通行证等诱人福利。当这些策略未能起效时，许多公司会缩短营业时间，减少产品供应。
A rural state - Burlington, with a population under 45,000, is the smallest "biggest city" in the country - Vermont has for decades seen young people leave for better opportunities.
佛蒙特州是以农村为主的州，其最大城市伯灵顿的人口不到4.5万，是美国规模最小的“最大城市”。几十年来，佛蒙特州的年轻人为了寻求更好的机会而纷纷离开家乡。
And while other states have helped buttress their work forces through immigration, Vermont's foreign-born population has remained small. But demographics are at the root of the problem.
其他州通过移民而补充了劳动力，但佛蒙特州的外国出生人口仍然很少。但问题的根源还是人口结构。
There were similar shortages across the country in 2021 and 2022, as demand - for both goods and workers - surged after pandemic lockdowns. The overall labor market has become more balanced as demand has cooled and Americans have returned to the work force.
2021年和2022年，全国各地都出现了类似的短缺，因为在疫情封控结束后，对商品和工人的需求都迅速增长。随着需求降温和美国人重返劳动力大军，整体劳动力市场的供需变得更加平衡。
But economists and demographers say shortages will re-emerge as the population ages. Long-run labor scarcity will look different from the acute shortages of the pandemic era.
但经济学家和人口学家表示，随着人口衰老，短缺将重新出现。长期的劳动力短缺与疫情期间的严重暂时短缺将有不同的表现。
Businesses will find ways to adapt, either by paying workers more or by adapting their operations to require fewer of them. Those that can't adapt will lose ground to those that can.
企业要找到适应这种情况的方法，要么支付更高的工资，要么调整运营，减少对工人的需求。那些无法适应的企业将输给那些能适应的企业。
"It's just going to be a new equilibrium," said Jacob Vigdor, an economist at the University of Washington, adding that businesses that built their operations on the availability of relatively cheap labor may struggle.
“一种新的均衡会出现，”华盛顿大学的经济学家雅各布·维格多说。他还表示，那些依靠相对廉价的劳动力而运营的企业可能会遇到困难。
"You may discover that that business model doesn't work for you anymore," he said. "There are going to be disruptions. There are going to be winners and losers."
“你可能会发现，这种商业模式不再适合你了，”他说。“原有的模式会被打乱，会产生赢家和输家。”
词汇预习
relatively [高考]
美[ˈrelətɪvli] | 英[ˈrelətɪvli]
adv. 相对地；比较地
overall [高考]
美[ˌoʊvərˈɔːl , ˈoʊvərɔːl] | 英[ˌəʊvərˈɔːl , ˈəʊvərɔːl]
adj. 全部的；总体的；全面考虑的 adv. 总的来说；总共 n. 罩衫；工作服
typically [高考]
美[ˈtɪpɪkli] | 英[ˈtɪpɪkli]
adv. 典型地；代表性地；通常，一般；不出所料地
emerge [高考]
美[iˈmɜːrdʒ] | 英[iˈmɜːdʒ]
vi. 浮现；(由某种状态)脱出；(事实)显现出来
scarce [高考]
美[skers] | 英[skeəs]
adj. 缺乏的；不足的；稀少的；罕见的 adv. 勉强
unclear [高考]
美[ˌʌnˈklɪr] | 英[ˌʌnˈklɪə(r)]
adj. 不清楚的；含混的
prime [高考]
美[praɪm] | 英[praɪm]
adj. 主要的; 基本的; 最好的; 首选的 n. 鼎盛时期 v. 事先指点; 事先准备
economist [高考]
美[ɪˈkɑnəmɪst] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmɪst]
n. 经济学家；[古]节俭的人
availability [高考]
美[əˌveɪlə'bɪləti] | 英[əˌveɪlə'bɪləti]
n. 有效；有用；有益；可得到的人(或物)；可用性
demand [高考]
美[dɪˈmænd] | 英[dɪˈmɑːnd]
n. 要求；需求 v. 要求；查问；需要
lack [高考]
美[læk] | 英[læk]
n. 缺乏；无 v. 缺乏；不足
struggle [高考]
美[ˈstrʌɡl] | 英[ˈstrʌɡl]
vi. 努力；奋斗；斗争；挣扎 n. 斗争；竞争；奋斗
adapt [高考]
美[əˈdæpt] | 英[əˈdæpt]
vt. 改编；使适应 vi. 适应；适合
political [高考]
美[pəˈlɪtɪkl] | 英[pəˈlɪtɪkl]
adj. 政治的；政治上的；政党的；人事的；争权夺利的
exit [高考]
美[ˈeksɪt] | 英[ˈeksɪt]
n. 出口；退场 v. 离去；退出
boom [高考]
美[buːm] | 英[buːm]
n. 繁荣；兴旺；激增；低沉声 n. 帆杠；吊杆；支臂；尾桁；水栅 vi. 急速增长；发出低沉声 vt. 使兴旺；促进
signature [高考]
美[ˈsɪɡnətʃər] | 英[ˈsɪɡnətʃə(r)]
n. 签署；书帖；有特征的符号；【计】签名
broad [高考]
美[brɔːd] | 英[brɔːd]
adj. 宽广的；清楚无误的；明显的；胸怀开阔的；粗俗的 n. [俚]女子
alongside [高考]
美[əˌlɔːŋˈsaɪd] | 英[əˌlɒŋˈsaɪd]
adv. 在旁边 prep. 在 ... 旁边
wage [高考]
美[weɪdʒ] | 英[weɪdʒ]
n. 工资；报酬 v. 开展；从事；进行(战争、运动)
immigration [高考]
美[ˌɪmɪˈɡreɪʃn] | 英[ˌɪmɪˈɡreɪʃn]
n. 移居；移民
warehouse [高考]
美[ˈwerhaʊs] | 英[ˈweəhaʊs]
n. 仓库 vt. 存入仓库
acute [高考]
美[əˈkjuːt] | 英[əˈkjuːt]
adj. 严重的; （疾病）急性的; 灵敏的; 敏锐的; 锐角的
lack of [高考]
美[læk ʌv] | 英[læk ɔv]
缺乏
era [高考]
美[ˈɪrə] | 英[ˈɪərə]
n. 纪元；时代；年代
subsequent [高考]
美[ˈsʌbsɪkwənt] | 英[ˈsʌbsɪkwənt]
adj. 随后的；后来的
where [高考]
美[wer] | 英[weə(r)]
adv. 在哪里；在那个地方 conj. 在 ... 地方
administrative [四级]
美[ədˈmɪnɪstreɪtɪv] | 英[ədˈmɪnɪstrətɪv]
adj. 行政的；管理的
long-term [四级]
美[ˌlɔːŋ ˈtɜːrm] | 英[ˌlɒŋ ˈtɜːm]
adj. 长期的
scarcity [四级]
美[ˈskersəti] | 英[ˈskeəsəti]
n. 缺乏；不足；缺少
look at [四级]
美[lʊk æt] | 英[lʊk æt]
（仔细地）看；着眼，考虑
sign in [四级]
美[saɪn ɪn] | 英[sain in]
(使)签到； (使)登记
offering [四级]
美[ˈɔːfərɪŋ] | 英[ˈɒfərɪŋ]
n. 供品；作品；出售物
equilibrium [六级]
美[ˌiːkwɪˈlɪbriəm] | 英[ˌiːkwɪˈlɪbriəm]
n. 平衡；均衡；平静
out of [六级]
美[aʊt ʌv] | 英[aut ɔv]
prep. 离…一段距离；从…里；离开 ...；出于
tactics [专四]
美[ˈtæktɪks] | 英[ˈtæktɪks]
n. 策略；战术
in the direction of [考研]
美[ɪn ði dɪˈrɛkʃən ʌv] | 英[in ðə diˈrekʃən ɔv]
adj. 朝 ... 方向(沿 ... 方向)
prolonged [托福]
美[prəˈlɔːŋd] | 英[prəˈlɒŋd]
adj. 持续很久的
重点讲解
At Lake Champlain Chocolates, the owners take shifts stacking boxes in the warehouse. At Burlington Bagel Bakery, a sign in the window advertises wages starting at $25 an hour.
在尚普兰湖巧克力工厂，工厂老板们轮换班地在仓库码箱子。在伯灵顿的贝果面包店，橱窗里的一块牌子上写着招工广告，工资每小时25美元起步。
shift n.
1. 转移；转变
【例】a shift of emphasis 重点的转移
2. 轮班制
【例】to work on the night shift/to run three shifts a day
上夜班/一天三班倒
signature n. & adj.
1. 作名词：签名
【例】to forge one’s signature 伪造某人的签名
The poster bears the movie star’s signature.
海报上有电影明星的签名。
2. 作形容词：标志性的；代表性的
【例】the signature dish/the signature look/a signature song
招牌菜/标志性造型/个人金曲
Central Vermont Medical Center is training administrative employees to become nurses. Cabot Creamery is bringing workers from out of state to package its signature blocks of Cheddar cheese.
佛蒙特中部医疗中心正在培训行政人员成为护士。卡博特乳品公司正从其他州招募工人，来为其招牌产品切达奶酪打包装盒。
shift n.
1. 转移；转变
【例】a shift of emphasis 重点的转移
2. 轮班制
【例】to work on the night shift/to run three shifts a day
上夜班/一天三班倒
signature n. & adj.
1. 作名词：签名
【例】to forge one’s signature 伪造某人的签名
The poster bears the movie star’s signature.
海报上有电影明星的签名。
2. 作形容词：标志性的；代表性的
【例】the signature dish/the signature look/a signature song
招牌菜/标志性造型/个人金曲
The root of the staffing challenge is simple: Vermont’s population is rapidly aging. More than a fifth of Vermonters are 65 or older, and more than 35 percent are over 54, the age at which Americans typically begin to exit the work force.
人员短缺问题的根源很简单：佛蒙特州的人口正在迅速老龄化。佛蒙特州超过五分之一的人年龄在65岁或以上，超过35%的人在54岁以上，这是美国人通常开始退休的年龄。
replace v. 代替；取代
【例】Teachers will never be replaced by computers in the classroom.
课堂上电脑永远不会取代老师。
【近义词】displace v. 取代
【辨析】substitute/supersede v. 用……代替/（用更好的东西）取代
No state has a smaller share of its residents in their prime working years. Vermont offers an early look at where the rest of the country could be headed. The baby boom population is aging out of the work force, and subsequent generations aren’t large enough to replace it.
佛蒙特州劳动年龄人口所占的比例比其他各州都小。它为美国其他地区的发展前景提供了前车之鉴。婴儿潮一代正在变老并退出劳动力大军，而随后几代人的数量还不足以完全替代婴儿潮一代。
replace v. 代替；取代
【例】Teachers will never be replaced by computers in the classroom.
课堂上电脑永远不会取代老师。
【近义词】displace v. 取代
【辨析】substitute/supersede v. 用……代替/（用更好的东西）取代
Immigration slumped during the pandemic, and though it has since rebounded, it is unclear how long that will last, given a lack of broad political support for higher immigration.
疫情期间移民人数大幅下降，尽管之后有所反弹，但鉴于缺乏对增加移民的广泛政治支持，目前还不清楚移民人数会持续增长多久。
rebound v.
1. （球）反弹；（数量等）回升
【例】Government securities rebounded after a week of declines.
公债下跌一周后又回升了。
【近义词】bounce back 回升；上扬
2. 起反作用；自食其果
【例】Bad deeds may rebound on the doer.
作恶的人会自食其果/恶有恶报。
【近义词】backfire v. 产生适得其反的效果
prolonged adj. 长期的；延续的
【例】a prolonged period of dry weather 长期的干旱天气
【近义词】extended adj. 延长的
【拓展】prolong v. 延长；延期
Birthrates are falling. “All of these things point in the direction of prolonged labor scarcity,” said David Autor, an economist who has studied long-term work force trends.
人口出生率也正在下降。“所有这些因素都指向劳动力长期短缺。”研究长期劳动力趋势的经济学家大卫·奥托尔说。
rebound v.
1. （球）反弹；（数量等）回升
【例】Government securities rebounded after a week of declines.
公债下跌一周后又回升了。
【近义词】bounce back 回升；上扬
2. 起反作用；自食其果
【例】Bad deeds may rebound on the doer.
作恶的人会自食其果/恶有恶报。
【近义词】backfire v. 产生适得其反的效果
prolonged adj. 长期的；延续的
【例】a prolonged period of dry weather 长期的干旱天气
【近义词】extended adj. 延长的
【拓展】prolong v. 延长；延期
Employers are fighting over scarce workers, offering wage increases, signing bonuses and child care subsidies, alongside enticements such as free ski passes. When those tactics fail, many are limiting operating hours and scaling back product offerings.
雇主们正在争夺稀缺的工人，提供加薪、签约奖金和育儿补贴，以及免费滑雪通行证等诱人福利。当这些策略未能起效时，许多公司会缩短营业时间，减少产品供应。
enticement n. 诱人的东西
【例】One of the enticements of the job is the company car.
这份工作的一个吸引人的地方就是可以用公司的车。
【拓展】entice v. 引诱
【近义词】lure/temptation/seduction n. 诱惑；诱人的东西
tactic n. 手段；战术；招数
【例】a delaying tactic 缓兵之计
【辨析】strategy/trick/game n. 战略；策略/花招；诡计
A rural state — Burlington, with a population under 45,000, is the smallest “biggest city” in the country — Vermont has for decades seen young people leave for better opportunities.
佛蒙特州是以农村为主的州，其最大城市伯灵顿的人口不到4.5万，是美国规模最小的“最大城市”。几十年来，佛蒙特州的年轻人为了寻求更好的机会而纷纷离开家乡。
immigration n. （入境的）移民
【例】to restrict immigration into the country 限制移民入境
【辨析】emigration/migration n. （出境的）移民；（国内的）移民
And while other states have helped buttress their work forces through immigration, Vermont’s foreign-born population has remained small. But demographics are at the root of the problem.
其他州通过移民而补充了劳动力，但佛蒙特州的外国出生人口仍然很少。但问题的根源还是人口结构。
immigration n. （入境的）移民
【例】to restrict immigration into the country 限制移民入境
【辨析】emigration/migration n. （出境的）移民；（国内的）移民
There were similar shortages across the country in 2021 and 2022, as demand — for both goods and workers — surged after pandemic lockdowns. The overall labor market has become more balanced as demand has cooled and Americans have returned to the work force.
2021年和2022年，全国各地都出现了类似的短缺，因为在疫情封控结束后，对商品和工人的需求都迅速增长。随着需求降温和美国人重返劳动力大军，整体劳动力市场的供需变得更加平衡。
acute adj.
1. 严重的
【例】acute environmental problems 严重的环境问题
【近义词】severe/serious adj. 严重的
2. 急性的
【例】acute pneumonia 急性肺炎
【反义词】chronic adj. 慢性的
But economists and demographers say shortages will re-emerge as the population ages. Long-run labor scarcity will look different from the acute shortages of the pandemic era.
但经济学家和人口学家表示，随着人口衰老，短缺将重新出现。长期的劳动力短缺与疫情期间的严重暂时短缺将有不同的表现。
acute adj.
1. 严重的
【例】acute environmental problems 严重的环境问题
【近义词】severe/serious adj. 严重的
2. 急性的
【例】acute pneumonia 急性肺炎
【反义词】chronic adj. 慢性的
Businesses will find ways to adapt, either by paying workers more or by adapting their operations to require fewer of them. Those that can’t adapt will lose ground to those that can.
企业要找到适应这种情况的方法，要么支付更高的工资，要么调整运营，减少对工人的需求。那些无法适应的企业将输给那些能适应的企业。
lose ground to 失利；败下阵来
【例】The Conservatives lost a lot of ground to the Liberal Democrats at the election.
在选举中，保守党大大失利于自由民主党。
【反义词】gain ground 越来越被接受；占上风
【例】The Republicans are gaining ground in the southern states.
共和党在南方各州逐渐占上风。
equilibrium n. 平衡；均势
【例】the equilibrium between opposing influences/the three kingdoms
敌对势力之间的均势/三足鼎立的局面
“It’s just going to be a new equilibrium,” said Jacob Vigdor, an economist at the University of Washington, adding that businesses that built their operations on the availability of relatively cheap labor may struggle.
“一种新的均衡会出现，”华盛顿大学的经济学家雅各布·维格多说。他还表示，那些依靠相对廉价的劳动力而运营的企业可能会遇到困难。
lose ground to 失利；败下阵来
【例】The Conservatives lost a lot of ground to the Liberal Democrats at the election.
在选举中，保守党大大失利于自由民主党。
【反义词】gain ground 越来越被接受；占上风
【例】The Republicans are gaining ground in the southern states.
共和党在南方各州逐渐占上风。
equilibrium n. 平衡；均势
【例】the equilibrium between opposing influences/the three kingdoms
敌对势力之间的均势/三足鼎立的局面
“You may discover that that business model doesn’t work for you anymore,” he said. “There are going to be disruptions. There are going to be winners and losers.”
“你可能会发现，这种商业模式不再适合你了，”他说。“原有的模式会被打乱，会产生赢家和输家。”
lose ground to 失利；败下阵来
【例】The Conservatives lost a lot of ground to the Liberal Democrats at the election.
在选举中，保守党大大失利于自由民主党。
【反义词】gain ground 越来越被接受；占上风
【例】The Republicans are gaining ground in the southern states.
共和党在南方各州逐渐占上风。
equilibrium n. 平衡；均势
【例】the equilibrium between opposing influences/the three kingdoms
敌对势力之间的均势/三足鼎立的局面
课后练习
What can be learned about Vermont?
A. It has enjoyed a booming economy.
B. The need for medicare is increasing.
C. It faces a severe shortage of labor.
D. The aging population puts a strain on finance.
One of the contributors to Vermont’s labor trend is ____.
A. the high demand for goods
B. the shrinkage of working population
C. the increase of immigration
D. the unpredictable birthrates
What do researchers think about the long-run labor scarcity?
A. It is mainly caused by the pandemic.
B. It will disappear after the demand cools down.
C. It will occur again due to the aging population.
D. It is more acute than the shortage of the pandemic era.
How will businesses be influenced by the labor scarcity?
A. Many businesses may go bankrupt.
B. They have to expand to make profits.
C. The costs of labor will decrease.
D. They have to adjust their business model.