加息后美国会陷入经济衰退吗(下)

尽管到目前为止控制通胀可能相对来说没有带来很多痛苦，但不能保证这种情况会持续下去。

双语精读

Still, many economists are less sanguine. Inflation, at least excluding volatile food and energy prices, remains well above the Fed's 2 percent annual target, at 4.8 percent in June.

尽管如此，许多经济学家并不那么乐观。通货膨胀率，至少在除去波动较大的食品和能源价格之后，仍远高于美联储2%的年度目标，6月份的通胀率为4.8%。

And although the progress on inflation so far may have been relatively painless, there is no guarantee that will continue -- employers that initially responded to higher interest rates by hiring fewer workers may soon begin cutting jobs outright.

尽管到目前为止控制通胀可能相对来说没有带来很多痛苦，但不能保证这种情况会持续下去，最初通过减少雇佣员工来应对利率上升的雇主，可能很快就会开始直接裁员。

"People taking victory laps declaring a soft landing I think are premature," said Laurence M. Ball. He is a Johns Hopkins economist who wrote an influential paper last year concluding that it would be difficult for the Fed to get inflation back to 2 percent without a significant increase in unemployment.

"人们绕场一周庆祝胜利，宣布软着陆，我认为这还为时过早。"劳伦斯·M·鲍尔说。鲍尔是约翰·霍普金斯大学的经济学家，去年写了一篇有影响力的论文，结论是美联储很难在将通货膨胀率恢复到2%的同时，避免失业率的大幅上涨。

Part of the problem is that the Fed has little margin for error. Act too aggressively to tame inflation, and the central bank could push the economy into a recession. Do too little, and inflation could pick back up -- forcing policymakers to clamp back down.

部分问题在于，美联储几乎没有犯错的余地。如果采取过于激进的行动来抑制通胀，央行可能会将经济推入衰退。如果行动力度不够，通胀可能会回升，从而迫使政策制定者再次抑制通胀。

Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, says he worries the strong labor market would fuel a new acceleration in the economy, leading to a resumption of rapid price increases -- an "inflationary boom" that reverses much of the recent progress.

复兴宏观公司的经济研究主管尼尔·杜塔表示，他担心强劲的劳动力市场将推动经济的新一轮加速，从而导致物价再次快速上涨，这种"通胀繁荣"将逆转最近的大部分进展。

"The next three to six months, the inflation dynamics will look pretty good -- it will feel like a soft landing," he said, "The question is, what comes after?" Then there are the factors outside policymakers' control.

"未来三到六个月，通胀动态看起来相当不错，感觉就像是软着陆，"他补充道，"问题是，之后会发生什么？"然后还有一些政策制定者无法控制的因素。

Oil prices, which soared last year when Russia invaded Ukraine, could do so again. Food prices could start rising again, too -- a possibility that became more real this week when Russia canceled a deal to allow Ukraine to export grain on the Black Sea.

去年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，石油价格飙升，现在可能会再次出现这种情况。食品价格可能也会再次上涨，本周俄罗斯取消了一项允许乌克兰从黑海港口出口粮食的协议，此事件将食品价格上涨的可能性变得更加现实。

With the economy already slowing, even relatively small developments could be enough to knock the recovery off course, said Jay Bryson, chief economist for Wells Fargo.

富国银行的首席经济学家杰伊·布赖森表示，在经济已经放缓的情况下，即使是相对较小的事态发展也可能足以让复苏偏离轨道。

For example, the looming resumption of student loan payments will strain the finances of many younger adults in particular. "The student loan thing is not, in and of itself, enough to cause a recession, but if you do have a downturn, it could be a kind of death by a thousand paper cuts," he said.

比如即将恢复偿还学生贷款，这将给许多年轻人的财务状况带来压力。他说："学生贷款本身并不足以导致经济衰退，但如果真的出现经济衰退，那可能就像是被纸划伤了一千次后导致的死亡。"

Mr. Bryson still expects a recession to start this year. But he has become less certain in recent months. He recently asked the nearly 20 people on his team to write down how likely they thought a recession was in the next year.

布赖森依然预计经济衰退将在今年开始。但近几个月来，他变得不那么确定了。他最近要求团队中的近20人写下，他们认为明年经济衰退的可能性有多大。

Answers ranged from 30 percent to 65 percent, with an average of exactly 50 percent -- coin-flip odds for a soft landing that many people once thought impossible. "Keep the Champagne on ice," Mr. Bryson said. "Hopefully early next year we can start popping it."

答案从30%到65%不等，平均数正好是50%，相当于抛硬币得出的概率，而许多人曾经认为软着陆是不可能的。"先把香槟放在冰块上，"布赖森说，"希望明年年初我们能打开它。"

词汇预习

• economic [高考]

  美[ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk] | 英[ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪk]

  adj. 经济的，经济学的；有利可图的；节约的

• economy [高考]

  美[ɪˈkɑːnəmi] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmi]

  n. 经济；节约 adj. 经济的；廉价的

• significant [高考]

  美[sɪɡˈnɪfɪkənt] | 英[sɪɡˈnɪfɪkənt]

  adj. 重要的；有意义的；意味深长的；显著的

• relatively [高考]

  美[ˈrelətɪvli] | 英[ˈrelətɪvli]

  adv. 相对地；比较地

• recovery [高考]

  美[rɪˈkʌvəri] | 英[rɪˈkʌvəri]

  n. 恢复；痊愈；复原；重获

• loan [高考]

  美[loʊn] | 英[ləʊn]

  n. 贷款；借出 v. 借；供应货款

• influential [高考]

  美[ˌɪnfluˈenʃl] | 英[ˌɪnfluˈenʃl]

  adj. 有权势的；有影响的 n. 有影响力的人物

• initially [高考]

  美[ɪˈnɪʃəli] | 英[ɪˈnɪʃəli]

  adv. 最初

• economist [高考]

  美[ɪˈkɑnəmɪst] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmɪst]

  n. 经济学家；[古]节俭的人

• flip [高考]

  美[flɪp] | 英[flɪp]

  vt. 掷；轻击；弹 vi. 翻转 n. （跳水或体操动作中的）空翻；轻弹；浏览 adj. 无礼的；冒失的；轻率的

• tame [高考]

  美[teɪm] | 英[teɪm]

  adj. 驯服的；柔顺的；乏味的 vt. 驯养；使驯服；压制 vi. 变得驯服

• possibility [高考]

  美[ˌpɑːsəˈbɪləti] | 英[ˌpɒsəˈbɪləti]

  n. 可能；可能性；可能的事情；潜在的价值

• target [高考]

  美[ˈtɑːrɡɪt] | 英[ˈtɑːɡɪt]

  n. 目标；对象；靶 vt. 把 ... 作为目标；瞄准

• guarantee [高考]

  美[ˌɡærənˈtiː] | 英[ˌɡærənˈtiː]

  n. 保证；保证书；担保；担保人；抵押品 vt. 保证；担保

• annual [高考]

  美[ˈænjuəl] | 英[ˈænjuəl]

  adj. 每年的；年度的；一年生的 n. 年刊；一年生植物

• chief [高考]

  美[tʃiːf] | 英[tʃiːf]

  adj. 主要的；首要的 n. 首领

• boom [高考]

  美[buːm] | 英[buːm]

  n. 繁荣；兴旺；激增；低沉声 n. 帆杠；吊杆；支臂；尾桁；水栅 vi. 急速增长；发出低沉声 vt. 使兴旺；促进

• error [高考]

  美[ˈerər] | 英[ˈerə(r)]

  n. 错误；过失；误差；谬误

• export [高考]

  美[ɪkˈspɔːrt , ˈekspɔːrt] | 英[ɪkˈspɔːt , ˈekspɔːt]

  n. 输出，出口；出口商品 v. 输出物资，输出，出口 adj.输出的

• unemployment [高考]

  美[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt] | 英[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt]

  n. 失业；失业人数

• increase in [高考]

  美[ɪnˈkris ɪn] | 英[inˈkri:s in]

  增加； 增大

• in particular [高考]

  美[ɪn pər'tɪkjələr] | 英[ɪn pə'tɪkjələ(r)]

  特别； 尤其

• margin [高考]

  美[ˈmɑːrdʒɪn] | 英[ˈmɑːdʒɪn]

  n. 边缘；余地；幅度；利润；差额；页边空白；定金；【商】原价和卖价之差 vt. 加边于；为…付保证金

• remains [高考]

  美[rɪˈmeɪnz] | 英[rɪˈmeɪnz]

  n. 剩余物；遗迹；遗体

• strain [高考]

  美[streɪn] | 英[streɪn]

  n. 拉紧；紧张；血统；笔调；（动植物或疾病的）品种 v. 拉紧；劳累；过分使用

• would [高考]

  美[wʊd , wəd] | 英[wʊd , wəd]

  aux. 将；可能；大概；总会；愿意；will的过去式

• acceleration [四级]

  美[əkˌseləˈreɪʃn] | 英[əkˌseləˈreɪʃn]

  n. 加速；促进；加速度

• recession [四级]

  美[rɪˈseʃn] | 英[rɪˈseʃn]

  n. 后退；（经济）不景气

• inflation [四级]

  美[ɪnˈfleɪʃn] | 英[ɪnˈfleɪʃn]

  n. 通货膨胀；膨胀

• downturn [四级]

  美[ˈdaʊntɜːrn] | 英[ˈdaʊntɜːn]

  n. 低迷时期

• premature [四级]

  美[ˌpriːməˈtʃʊr , ˌpriːməˈtʊr] | 英[ˈpremətʃə(r)]

  adj. 提前的；过早的；早产的 n. 早产儿；早熟

• back up [四级]

  美[bæk ʌp] | 英[bæk ʌp]

  vi. (因积聚而)拥堵；堵塞 vt. 支持；援助；倒退；（资料）备份

• of itself [四级]

  美[ʌv ɪtˈsɛlf] | 英[ɔv itˈself]

  adv. 自行地；自然地

• leading [四级]

  美[ˈliːdɪŋ , ˈledɪŋ] | 英[ˈliːdɪŋ , ˈledɪŋ]

  adj. 领导的；指导的；主要的；在前的

• odds [四级]

  美[ɑːdz] | 英[ɒdz]

  n. 机率；可能性；差别；投注赔率；让步；优势

• aggressively [六级]

  美[əˈɡrɛsɪvlɪ] | 英[ə'ɡresɪvlɪ]

  adv. 侵略地；攻击地；有干劲地

• clamp [六级]

  美[klæmp] | 英[klæmp]

  n. 夹子；螺丝钳 vt. 夹住；强加；压制

• kind of [六级]

  美[kaɪnd ʌv] | 英[kaind ɔv]

  adv. 有点儿

• back down [六级]

  美[bæk daʊn] | 英[bæk daun]

  放弃； 让步

• landing [专四]

  美[ˈlændɪŋ] | 英[ˈlændɪŋ]

  n. 着陆；登陆；登陆处；楼梯平台

• sanguine [专八]

  美[ˈsæŋɡwɪn] | 英[ˈsæŋgwɪn]

  adj. 乐天的；自信的；红润的 n. 血红色

• resumption [专八]

  美[rɪˈzʌmpʃn] | 英[rɪˈzʌmpʃn]

  n. 恢复

• outright [专八]

  美[ˈaʊtraɪt] | 英[ˈaʊtraɪt]

  adj. 直率的；完全的；彻底的 adv. 率直地；立刻地；彻底地

• volatile [专八]

  美[ˈvɑːlətl] | 英[ˈvɒlətaɪl]

  adj. 不稳定的；反复无常的；易挥发的 n. 挥发物

• looming [雅思]

  美['lumɪŋ] | 英['lu:mɪŋ]

  adj. （不希望或不愉快的事情）迫近的，逼近的

重点讲解

Still, many economists are less sanguine. Inflation, at least excluding volatile food and energy prices, remains well above the Fed's 2 percent annual target, at 4.8 percent in June.

尽管如此，许多经济学家并不那么乐观。通货膨胀率，至少在除去波动较大的食品和能源价格之后，仍远高于美联储2%的年度目标，6月份的通胀率为4.8%。

volatile   adj. 

1. （人或情绪）易变的；无定性的

【例】a volatile personality 反覆无常的个性

2. （事物）不稳定的；波动的

【例】a volatile exchange rate 波动的汇率

【近义词】fluctuating  adj. 波动的；变化的

And although the progress on inflation so far may have been relatively painless, there is no guarantee that will continue -- employers that initially responded to higher interest rates by hiring fewer workers may soon begin cutting jobs outright.

尽管到目前为止控制通胀可能相对来说没有带来很多痛苦，但不能保证这种情况会持续下去，最初通过减少雇佣员工来应对利率上升的雇主，可能很快就会开始直接裁员。

painless   adj.

1. 无痛的；没有痛苦的

【例】a painless surgery  无痛手术

2. 轻松的；不费力的

【例】The interview was relatively painless. 

这次面试相对轻松。

victory lap  绕场一周庆祝胜利

【例】She celebrated her gold medal by doing a victory lap.

她绕场一周，庆祝自己赢得金牌。

"People taking victory laps declaring a soft landing I think are premature," said Laurence M. Ball. He is a Johns Hopkins economist who wrote an influential paper last year concluding that it would be difficult for the Fed to get inflation back to 2 percent without a significant increase in unemployment.

"人们绕场一周庆祝胜利，宣布软着陆，我认为这还为时过早。"劳伦斯·M·鲍尔说。鲍尔是约翰·霍普金斯大学的经济学家，去年写了一篇有影响力的论文，结论是美联储很难在将通货膨胀率恢复到2%的同时，避免失业率的大幅上涨。

painless   adj.

1. 无痛的；没有痛苦的

【例】a painless surgery  无痛手术

2. 轻松的；不费力的

【例】The interview was relatively painless. 

这次面试相对轻松。

victory lap  绕场一周庆祝胜利

【例】She celebrated her gold medal by doing a victory lap.

她绕场一周，庆祝自己赢得金牌。

Part of the problem is that the Fed has little margin for error. Act too aggressively to tame inflation, and the central bank could push the economy into a recession. Do too little, and inflation could pick back up -- forcing policymakers to clamp back down.

部分问题在于，美联储几乎没有犯错的余地。如果采取过于激进的行动来抑制通胀，央行可能会将经济推入衰退。如果行动力度不够，通胀可能会回升，从而迫使政策制定者再次抑制通胀。

margin  n. 余地；备用的时间（空间、金钱等）

【例】a safety margin/margin for creativity/margin of error  

安全距离/发挥创意的空间/误差幅度

clamp down (on sth)   严厉打击（某事）；（对某事）进行限制

【例】a campaign by police to clamp down on street crime 

警方严厉打击街头犯罪的运动

Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, says he worries the strong labor market would fuel a new acceleration in the economy, leading to a resumption of rapid price increases -- an "inflationary boom" that reverses much of the recent progress.

复兴宏观公司的经济研究主管尼尔·杜塔表示，他担心强劲的劳动力市场将推动经济的新一轮加速，从而导致物价再次快速上涨，这种"通胀繁荣"将逆转最近的大部分进展。

fuel   v. 提供燃料；加强；刺激

【例】to fuel one’s fears/the inflation/the rumors

加剧某人的恐惧/加剧通胀/引起谣传

【反义词】ease  v. 减轻；使缓和；降低

resumption   n. 重新开始；继续进行

【例】a resumption of peace talks 恢复和谈

【拓展】resume  v. （中断后）继续；重新开始

【例】She resumed her career after an interval of two years. 

经过两年的空窗期后，她又重新开始工作

"The**** next**** three to**** six months****,**** the inflation dynamics**** will**** look**** pretty**** good**** --**** it**** will**** feel**** like**** a soft**** landing," he**** said****,**** "The**** question**** is****,**** what**** comes after?" Then**** there are the factors outside policymakers****'**** control.****

"未来三到六个月，通胀动态看起来相当不错，感觉就像是软着陆，"他补充道，"问题是，之后会发生什么？"然后还有一些政策制定者无法控制的因素。

Oil prices****,**** which soared**** last**** year**** when**** Russia**** invaded Ukraine,**** could do**** so**** again.**** Food**** prices**** could start rising**** again,**** too --**** a possibility that**** became**** more**** real**** this**** week**** when**** Russia**** canceled**** a deal**** to**** allow Ukraine to**** export**** grain on**** the Black Sea.****

去年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，石油价格飙升，现在可能会再次出现这种情况。食品价格可能也会再次上涨，本周俄罗斯取消了一项允许乌克兰从黑海港口出口粮食的协议，此事件将食品价格上涨的可能性变得更加现实。

With the economy already slowing, even relatively small developments could be enough to knock the recovery off course, said Jay Bryson, chief economist for Wells Fargo.

富国银行的首席经济学家杰伊·布赖森表示，在经济已经放缓的情况下，即使是相对较小的事态发展也可能足以让复苏偏离轨道。

off course   偏离航线/方向

【例】The ship was 25 miles off course. 

船偏离航向25英里。

【反义词】on course  在正确方向上

【例】put the economy on course  使经济走上正轨

loom  v. 

1. （令人惊恐地）隐约出现

【例】A dark shape loomed up ahead of us. 

一个黑影子隐隐出现在我们前面。

2. 阴森地逼近

【例】The prospect of war is looming.

战争的阴影逐渐逼近。

strain  n. & v.

1. 作名词：压力；重负；紧张局面

【例】The transport service cannot cope with the strain of so many passengers. 

交通运输部门无法应对大量乘客带来的压力。

2. 作动词：过度使用；使紧张

【例】You'll strain your eyes by reading in such a poor light. 

你在这样微弱的光线下看书会弄坏眼睛的。

For example, the looming resumption of student loan payments will strain the finances of many younger adults in particular. "The student loan thing is not, in and of itself, enough to cause a recession, but if you do have a downturn, it could be a kind of death by a thousand paper cuts," he said.

比如即将恢复偿还学生贷款，这将给许多年轻人的财务状况带来压力。他说："学生贷款本身并不足以导致经济衰退，但如果真的出现经济衰退，那可能就像是被纸划伤了一千次后导致的死亡。"

off course   偏离航线/方向

【例】The ship was 25 miles off course. 

船偏离航向25英里。

【反义词】on course  在正确方向上

【例】put the economy on course  使经济走上正轨

loom  v. 

1. （令人惊恐地）隐约出现

【例】A dark shape loomed up ahead of us. 

一个黑影子隐隐出现在我们前面。

2. 阴森地逼近

【例】The prospect of war is looming.

战争的阴影逐渐逼近。

strain  n. & v.

1. 作名词：压力；重负；紧张局面

【例】The transport service cannot cope with the strain of so many passengers. 

交通运输部门无法应对大量乘客带来的压力。

2. 作动词：过度使用；使紧张

【例】You'll strain your eyes by reading in such a poor light. 

你在这样微弱的光线下看书会弄坏眼睛的。

Mr. Bryson still expects a recession to start this year. But he has become less certain in recent months. He recently asked the nearly 20 people on his team to write down how likely they thought a recession was in the next year.

布赖森依然预计经济衰退将在今年开始。但近几个月来，他变得不那么确定了。他最近要求团队中的近20人写下，他们认为明年经济衰退的可能性有多大。

range from A to B

1. 在A到B之间的范围变动；包括从A到B的各类事物

【例】The tiger-sharks range in length from nine to fourteen feet. 

虎鲨体长从9至14英尺不等。

odds  n. 概率；可能性

【例】The odds are that she'll win. 

她有可能会赢。

【辨析】odd  adj. 奇怪的；怪异的

Answers ranged from 30 percent to 65 percent, with an average of exactly 50 percent -- coin-flip odds for a soft landing that many people once thought impossible. "Keep the Champagne on ice," Mr. Bryson said. "Hopefully early next year we can start popping it."

答案从30%到65%不等，平均数正好是50%，相当于抛硬币得出的概率，而许多人曾经认为软着陆是不可能的。"先把香槟放在冰块上，"布赖森说，"希望明年年初我们能打开它。"

range from A to B

1. 在A到B之间的范围变动；包括从A到B的各类事物

【例】The tiger-sharks range in length from nine to fourteen feet. 

虎鲨体长从9至14英尺不等。

odds  n. 概率；可能性

【例】The odds are that she'll win. 

她有可能会赢。

【辨析】odd  adj. 奇怪的；怪异的

课后练习

• Many economists are less optimistic because ____.

  A. food and energy prices are very unstable

  B. the inflation rate is higher than the target

  C. corporate profits have been on a decline

  D. the unemployment rate remains high

• The challenge faced by the Fed is ____.

  A. to reduce the inflation as soon as possible

  B. to find alternatives to rate increases

  C. to strike a balance between inflation and recession

  D. to maintain its policy of increasing interest rates

• The cancellation of a deal between Russia and Ukraine suggests that ____.

  A. another financial crisis may happen in the future

  B. the world economy is influenced by the U.S. economy

  C. food prices may increase and push up inflation

  D. the international trade barrier may cause a recession

• What does Jay Bryson think about the economy?

  A. Small events could have a great impact on the economy.

  B. Student loan repayments should be postponed.

  C. The economy is strong enough to face minor difficulties.

  D. A soft landing may arrive sooner than expected.