加息后美国会陷入经济衰退吗(中)

但至少就目前而言，对最坏情况的讨论--美联储难以抑制的通胀失控，或者物价和失业率同步上升的"滞胀"--已经让位于谨慎的乐观。

双语精读

But for now, at least, talk of worst-case scenarios -- runaway inflation that the Fed struggles to tame, or "stagflation" in which prices and unemployment rise in tandem -- has been ceding the conversation to cautious optimism.

但至少就目前而言，对最坏情况的讨论--美联储难以抑制的通胀失控，或者物价和失业率同步上升的"滞胀"--已经让位于谨慎的乐观。

In an interview last week Lael Brainard, a top White House economic adviser, said: "We have seen a huge string of shocks, so I can't predict what the future will hold. But so far, the data is very much consistent with moderating inflation and a still-resilient job market."

白宫高级经济顾问莱尔·布雷纳德上周在接受采访时说："我们已经看到了一系列巨大的冲击，所以我无法预测未来会发生什么。但到目前为止，数据与通胀放缓和就业市场仍具韧性的情况非常一致。"

Economists have become more optimistic for two main reasons. The first is inflation itself, which has cooled rapidly in recent months. The Consumer Price Index in June was up just 3 percent from a year earlier, compared with a peak of 9 percent last summer. That is partly a result of factors that are unlikely to repeat -- no one expects oil prices to keep falling at a rate of 30 percent per year, for example.

经济学家变得更加乐观，主要有两个原因。首先是通胀本身，近几个月来通胀迅速降温。6月份的消费者价格指数与去年同期相比仅上涨了3%，而去年夏天达到了9%的峰值。这在一定程度上是因为一些不太可能重演的因素，例如，没有人预计油价会继续以每年30%的速度下跌。

But measures of underlying inflation have also shown significant progress. And consumers and businesses appear to expect price increases to return to normal over the next few years, which makes it less likely that inflation will become embedded in the economy.

但衡量潜在通胀的指标也显示出重大进展。消费者和企业似乎预计，物价上涨将在未来几年恢复正常，这降低了经济中的通胀变得顽固的可能性。

Cooling inflation could allow the Fed to continue to slow its campaign of interest rate increases, or perhaps even to stop raising rates altogether earlier than planned. That could reduce the chances that policymakers go too far in their effort to control inflation and wind up causing a recession by mistake.

通胀降温可能会让美联储继续放慢加息的步伐，甚至可能比原计划提前停止加息。这会降低政策制定者在控制通胀方面用力过猛，从而最终错误地导致经济衰退的可能性。

"Things have been going in the direction you would want them to go in order for you to get a soft landing," said Louise Sheiner, a former Fed economist who is now at the Brookings Institution. "It doesn't mean you're guaranteed to get it, but certainly it's more likely than if inflation was still at 7 percent," she continued.

"事情在朝着为了实现软着陆而需要的方向发展。"前美联储经济学家、现供职于布鲁金斯学会的路易丝·谢纳表示，"这并不意味着一定会出现软着陆，但肯定比通胀仍然是7%的情况可能性更大。"她补充说。

The second reason for optimism has been the gradual cooling of the labor market from a rolling boil to a strong simmer. The rapid reopening of the economy in 2021 led to a huge imbalance between supply and demand: Restaurants, hotels, airlines and other businesses suddenly had hundreds of thousand of jobs to fill and not enough people to fill them.

乐观的第二个理由是，劳动力市场从沸腾滚烫逐渐降温为强劲的轻微沸腾。2021年经济的迅速重启导致了巨大的供需失衡：餐馆、酒店、航空公司和其他企业突然有数十万个工作岗位空缺，但没有足够的人来填补。

For workers, it was a rare moment of leverage, resulting in the fastest wage growth in decades. But economists worried that those rapid gains could make it hard to get inflation under control.

对于劳动者来说，这是一个难得的杠杆时刻，导致了数十年来最快的工资增长。但经济学家担心，工资快速增长可能会使通胀很难得到控制。

In recent months, however, the frenzy has subsided. Employers are not posting as many job openings. Employees are not hopping from job to job as freely in search of higher pay. At the same time, millions of workers have joined or rejoined the work force, helping to ease the labor shortage.

然而，近几个月来，这种狂热已经平息下来。雇主发布的空缺职位数量没有以前那么多。员工不会为了寻求更高的薪酬而像以前那样自由地跳槽。与此同时，数以百万计的劳动者加入或重新加入劳动力大军，这有助于缓解劳动力短缺。

So far, however, that easing has happened without a significant increase in unemployment. The jobless rate is roughly where it was in the strong labor market that preceded the pandemic.

然而，到目前为止，这种劳动力的宽松并没有导致失业率大幅上升的情况。失业率与疫情爆发前强劲的劳动力市场水平大致相当。

Some industries, such as tech and finance, have laid off employees, but most of those workers have found other jobs relatively quickly. Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman Sachs, told us that labor market overheating is diminishing substantially, to levels where it's no longer so worrisome.

一些行业，如科技和金融，已经开始裁员，但大多数人很快找到了其他工作。高盛首席经济学家简·哈丘斯表示，劳动力市场过热的情况正在大幅缓解，达到了不再那么令人担忧的水平。

词汇预习

economic [高考]
美[ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk] | 英[ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪk]
adj. 经济的，经济学的；有利可图的；节约的
economy [高考]
美[ɪˈkɑːnəmi] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmi]
n. 经济；节约 adj. 经济的；廉价的
significant [高考]
美[sɪɡˈnɪfɪkənt] | 英[sɪɡˈnɪfɪkənt]
adj. 重要的；有意义的；意味深长的；显著的
relatively [高考]
美[ˈrelətɪvli] | 英[ˈrelətɪvli]
adv. 相对地；比较地
roughly [高考]
美[ˈrʌfli] | 英[ˈrʌfli]
adv. 粗略地；大约；粗暴地；粗糙地；粗鲁地
peak [高考]
美[piːk] | 英[piːk]
n. 山顶；顶峰；山峰；尖端；帽檐；极值 v. 达到高峰；达到最高值 adj. 最高的；高峰期的；最大值的【名】（Peak）（英）皮克（人名）
unlikely [高考]
美[ʌnˈlaɪkli] | 英[ʌnˈlaɪkli]
adj. 不太可能的
ease [高考]
美[iːz] | 英[iːz]
n. 容易；悠闲；安逸；自在 v. 减轻；放松；缓和；缓慢移动
adviser [高考]
美[ədˈvaɪzər] | 英[ədˈvaɪzə(r)]
n. 顾问；指导教授；劝告者
optimism [高考]
美[ˈɑːptɪmɪzəm] | 英[ˈɒptɪmɪzəm]
n. 乐观；乐观主义
economist [高考]
美[ɪˈkɑnəmɪst] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmɪst]
n. 经济学家；[古]节俭的人
tame [高考]
美[teɪm] | 英[teɪm]
adj. 驯服的；柔顺的；乏味的 vt. 驯养；使驯服；压制 vi. 变得驯服
demand [高考]
美[dɪˈmænd] | 英[dɪˈmɑːnd]
n. 要求；需求 v. 要求；查问；需要
data [高考]
美[ˈdeɪtə] | 英[ˈdeɪtə]
n. 数据；资料
per [高考]
美[pər] | 英[pə(r)]
prep. 每；每一；经过；按照
growth [高考]
美[ɡroʊθ] | 英[ɡrəʊθ]
n. 【U】增长；生长；发展；种植 n. 【C】生长物；【医】瘤;赘生物
rate [高考]
美[reɪt] | 英[reɪt]
n. 比率；速度；价格；费用；等级 v. 认为；估价；定等级；值得；怒斥；责骂
former [高考]
美[ˈfɔːrmər] | 英[ˈfɔːmə(r)]
adj. 前者的；前任的；以前的 n. 创造者；[英]学校某一年级的学生
rare [高考]
美[rer] | 英[reə(r)]
adj. 罕见的；珍贵的；煎得嫩的
cautious [高考]
美[ˈkɔːʃəs] | 英[ˈkɔːʃəs]
adj. 谨慎的；十分小心的
chief [高考]
美[tʃiːf] | 英[tʃiːf]
adj. 主要的；首要的 n. 首领
altogether [高考]
美[ˌɔːltəˈɡeðər] | 英[ˌɔːltəˈɡeðə(r)]
adv. 总共；完全；总的来说
gradual [高考]
美[ˈɡrædʒuəl] | 英[ˈɡrædʒuəl]
adj. 逐渐的；逐步的；平缓的
unemployment [高考]
美[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt] | 英[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt]
n. 失业；失业人数
finance [高考]
美[ˈfaɪnæns] | 英[ˈfaɪnæns]
n. 金融；财政；资金 vt. 给 ... 提供资金；负担经费
wage [高考]
美[weɪdʒ] | 英[weɪdʒ]
n. 工资；报酬 v. 开展；从事；进行(战争、运动)
consistent [高考]
美[kənˈsɪstənt] | 英[kənˈsɪstənt]
adj. 始终如一的；持续的；一致的
increase in [高考]
美[ɪnˈkris ɪn] | 英[inˈkri:s in]
增加；增大
in order [高考]
美[ɪn 'ɔːrdər] | 英[ɪn 'ɔːdə]
整齐；秩序井然；按顺序
in search of [高考]
美[ɪn sɜːrtʃ əv] | 英[ɪn sɜːtʃ əv]
寻找；寻求
by mistake [高考]
美[baɪ mɪˈsteɪk] | 英[baɪ mɪˈsteɪk]
错误地
under control [高考]
美['ʌndər kən'troʊl] | 英['ʌndə kən'trəʊl]
处于控制之下
where [高考]
美[wer] | 英[weə(r)]
adv. 在哪里；在那个地方 conj. 在 ... 地方
would [高考]
美[wʊd , wəd] | 英[wʊd , wəd]
aux. 将；可能；大概；总会；愿意；will的过去式
worried [高考]
美[ˈwɜːrid] | 英[ˈwʌrid]
adj. 担心的；烦恼的
recession [四级]
美[rɪˈseʃn] | 英[rɪˈseʃn]
n. 后退；（经济）不景气
inflation [四级]
美[ɪnˈfleɪʃn] | 英[ɪnˈfleɪʃn]
n. 通货膨胀；膨胀
tech [四级]
美[tek] | 英[tek]
n. 技术学校；技术；技术人员
make it [四级]
美[mek ɪt] | 英[meik it]
成功达到预定目标,性交易,幸存
rise in [四级]
美 | 英
在……方面的增加；上涨
wind up [四级]
美[ˈwaɪnd ʌp] | 英[ˈwaɪnd ʌp]
v. 以...告终；结束(讲话、会议等)；惹...生气；关闭(公司、企业等)；转动手柄或轮子以提升
imbalance [六级]
美[ɪmˈbæləns] | 英[ɪmˈbæləns]
n. 不平衡；失调
consistent with [六级]
美[kənˈsɪstənt wɪð] | 英[kənˈsistənt wið]
符合；与 ... 一致
landing [专四]
美[ˈlændɪŋ] | 英[ˈlændɪŋ]
n. 着陆；登陆；登陆处；楼梯平台
underlying [专四]
美[ˌʌndərˈlaɪɪŋ] | 英[ˌʌndəˈlaɪɪŋ]
adj. 潜在的；隐含的；在下面的；基本的；[经]优先的
frenzy [专四]
美[ˈfrenzi] | 英[ˈfrenzi]
n. 狂乱；狂暴；狂怒
runaway [专八]
美[ˈrʌnəˌwe] | 英[ˈrʌnəweɪ]
n. 逃跑者；逃亡 adj. 逃跑的；失控的；迅速的
simmer [专八]
美[ˈsɪmɚ] | 英[ˈsɪmə(r)]
v. 炖；煨；即将爆发；内心充满 n. 炖；即将发作
worrisome [考研]
美[ˈwɜrisəm] | 英[ˈwʌrisəm]
adj. 令人忧虑的；令人烦恼的
substantially [考研]
美[səbˈstænʃəli] | 英[səbˈstænʃəli]
adv. 大体上；实质上；非常
talk of [考研]
美[tɔk ʌv] | 英[tɔ:k ɔv]
谈到；说到

重点讲解

But for now, at least, talk of worst-case scenarios -- runaway inflation that the Fed struggles to tame, or "stagflation" in which prices and unemployment rise in tandem -- has been ceding the conversation to cautious optimism.

但至少就目前而言，对最坏情况的讨论--美联储难以抑制的通胀失控，或者物价和失业率同步上升的"滞胀"--已经让位于谨慎的乐观。

scenario n. 设想的情况

【例】The dream scenario is that the weather is sunny and we go to the beach.

最理想的情况是天气晴朗，我们一起去海边。

【辨析】scene/scenery n. 现场；场面/自然风景

cede sth to... 把某物割让/转让给……

【例】The government of the Qing dynasty ceded Hong Kong to Britain after the Opium War.

鸦片战争后清政府割香港岛给英国。

In an interview last week Lael Brainard, a top White House economic adviser, said: "We have seen a huge string of shocks, so I can't predict what the future will hold. But so far, the data is very much consistent with moderating inflation and a still-resilient job market."

白宫高级经济顾问莱尔·布雷纳德上周在接受采访时说："我们已经看到了一系列巨大的冲击，所以我无法预测未来会发生什么。但到目前为止，数据与通胀放缓和就业市场仍具韧性的情况非常一致。"

consistent adj.

1. 水平始终如一的；不变的

【例】an experienced and consistent player/consistent attendance

一位有经验且状态稳定的运动员/稳定的出勤

2. 一致的；相符合的

【例】The two statements are not consistent.

这两份声明不一致。

【搭配】be consistent with 与……一致

【辨析】constant adj. 不间断的；恒定的

【例】a constant noise/at a constant speed of 5 mph.

不停息的噪音/每小时5公里的恒定速度

经济学家变得更加乐观，主要有两个原因。首先是通胀本身，近几个月来通胀迅速降温。6月份的消费者价格指数与去年同期相比仅上涨了3%，而去年夏天达到了9%的峰值。这在一定程度上是因为一些不太可能重演的因素，例如，没有人预计油价会继续以每年30%的速度下跌。

embed v.

1. 嵌入

【例】The glass was embedded in his leg.

玻璃扎进了他的腿里。

2. 使根深蒂固

【例】These attitudes are deeply embedded in our society.

这些看法在我们这个社会中根深蒂固。

但衡量潜在通胀的指标也显示出重大进展。消费者和企业似乎预计，物价上涨将在未来几年恢复正常，这降低了经济中的通胀变得顽固的可能性。

embed v.

1. 嵌入

【例】The glass was embedded in his leg.

玻璃扎进了他的腿里。

2. 使根深蒂固

【例】These attitudes are deeply embedded in our society.

这些看法在我们这个社会中根深蒂固。

Cooling inflation could allow the Fed to continue to slow its campaign of interest rate increases, or perhaps even to stop raising rates altogether earlier than planned. That could reduce the chances that policymakers go too far in their effort to control inflation and wind up causing a recession by mistake.

通胀降温可能会让美联储继续放慢加息的步伐，甚至可能比原计划提前停止加息。这会降低政策制定者在控制通胀方面用力过猛，从而最终错误地导致经济衰退的可能性。

campaign n. （为社会、商业、政治目的进行的）运动

【例】an election campaign/an advertising campaign/an anti-smoking campaign

竞选活动/广告宣传活动/禁烟活动

wind up doing sth 以做某事告终

【例】If you aren’t careful lifting weights, you could wind up hurting yourself.

举重的时候如果不小心，你可能最后会让自己受伤。

【近义词】end up 以……告终

【拓展】wind sth down 使某事逐步结束

【例】The Fed might wind down its campaign of rate increases.

美联储可能会逐步取消加息措施。

"Things have been going in the direction you would want them to go in order for you to get a soft landing," said Louise Sheiner, a former Fed economist who is now at the Brookings Institution. "It doesn't mean you're guaranteed to get it, but certainly it's more likely than if inflation was still at 7 percent," she continued.

"事情在朝着为了实现软着陆而需要的方向发展。"前美联储经济学家、现供职于布鲁金斯学会的路易丝·谢纳表示，"这并不意味着一定会出现软着陆，但肯定比通胀仍然是7%的情况可能性更大。"她补充说。

guarantee v.

1. 肯定会；保证

【例】These days getting a degree doesn't guarantee you a job.

如今获得学位并不能保证你有工作。

2. （产品）保修或保换

【例】The fridge is guaranteed against failure for a year.

冰箱一年内出现故障可保修或保换。

The second reason for optimism has been the gradual cooling of the labor market from a rolling boil to a strong simmer. The rapid reopening of the economy in 2021 led to a huge imbalance between supply and demand: Restaurants, hotels, airlines and other businesses suddenly had hundreds of thousand of jobs to fill and not enough people to fill them.

乐观的第二个理由是，劳动力市场从沸腾滚烫逐渐降温为强劲的轻微沸腾。2021年经济的迅速重启导致了巨大的供需失衡：餐馆、酒店、航空公司和其他企业突然有数十万个工作岗位空缺，但没有足够的人来填补。

simmer v. & n.

1. 作动词

（1）用文火炖；轻轻地沸腾

【例】Leave the soup to simmer for 30 minutes.

让汤煨个30分钟。

（2）充满（难以控制的强烈感情）

【例】Anger simmered inside him.

他心里郁结着怒火。

2. 作名词：轻微的沸腾

【例】Keep the soup at a simmer.

让汤保持轻微沸腾状态。

leverage n. & v.

1. 作名词：杠杆作用；影响力

【例】Without military leverage, peaceful mediation was not working.

没有军事上的影响力，和平调停就不起作用。

【拓展】lever n. 杠杆

2. 作动词：充分利用

【例】We can gain a market advantage by leveraging our network of partners.

我们可以通过利用我们的商业伙伴关系网，来获得市场优势。

For workers, it was a rare moment of leverage, resulting in the fastest wage growth in decades. But economists worried that those rapid gains could make it hard to get inflation under control.

对于劳动者来说，这是一个难得的杠杆时刻，导致了数十年来最快的工资增长。但经济学家担心，工资快速增长可能会使通胀很难得到控制。

simmer v. & n.

1. 作动词

（1）用文火炖；轻轻地沸腾

【例】Leave the soup to simmer for 30 minutes.

让汤煨个30分钟。

（2）充满（难以控制的强烈感情）

【例】Anger simmered inside him.

他心里郁结着怒火。

2. 作名词：轻微的沸腾

【例】Keep the soup at a simmer.

让汤保持轻微沸腾状态。

leverage n. & v.

1. 作名词：杠杆作用；影响力

【例】Without military leverage, peaceful mediation was not working.

没有军事上的影响力，和平调停就不起作用。

【拓展】lever n. 杠杆

2. 作动词：充分利用

【例】We can gain a market advantage by leveraging our network of partners.

我们可以通过利用我们的商业伙伴关系网，来获得市场优势。

In recent months, however, the frenzy has subsided. Employers are not posting as many job openings. Employees are not hopping from job to job as freely in search of higher pay. At the same time, millions of workers have joined or rejoined the work force, helping to ease the labor shortage.

然而，近几个月来，这种狂热已经平息下来。雇主发布的空缺职位数量没有以前那么多。员工不会为了寻求更高的薪酬而像以前那样自由地跳槽。与此同时，数以百万计的劳动者加入或重新加入劳动力大军，这有助于缓解劳动力短缺。

subside v. 回落；平息；消退

【例】The flood subsided.

洪水逐渐消退。

His anger subsided.

他的怒气平息了。

hop v.

1. （人）单脚跳；（鸟）双脚跳

【例】A robin was hopping around on the path.

一只知更鸟在小路上跳来跳去。

2. 不断更换

【例】I like to hop from channel to channel when I watch TV.

我看电视时喜欢不断地换频道。

So far, however, that easing has happened without a significant increase in unemployment. The jobless rate is roughly where it was in the strong labor market that preceded the pandemic.

然而，到目前为止，这种劳动力的宽松并没有导致失业率大幅上升的情况。失业率与疫情爆发前强劲的劳动力市场水平大致相当。

precede v. 在……之前发生

【例】A precedes B in the alphabet.

在字母表上，A在B之前。

【拓展】precedent n. 前例；先例

一些行业，如科技和金融，已经开始裁员，但大多数人很快找到了其他工作。高盛首席经济学家简·哈丘斯表示，劳动力市场过热的情况正在大幅缓解，达到了不再那么令人担忧的水平。

precede v. 在……之前发生

【例】A precedes B in the alphabet.

在字母表上，A在B之前。

【拓展】precedent n. 前例；先例

课后练习

What is the economists’ opinion about the U.S. economy?
A. The Fed will struggle to control the inflation.
B. Prices and unemployment rates will rise simultaneously.
C. More financial shocks will come in the future.
D. The economy remains resilient at least for now.
Which of the following is true about the inflation?
A. The Consumer Price Index has decreased since last summer.
B. Some unusual factors have contributed to the cooling of inflation.
C. Measures of underlying inflation have increased substantially.
D. The inflation is likely to continue to increase in the long term.
How does the cooling inflation influence the economy?
A. It diminishes the negative effect of rate increases on the economy.
B. It allows policy makers to make correct predictions about the economy.
C. It encourages policy makers to devise plans to prevent a recession.
D. It leads to more rate increases to eliminate inflation ultimately.
What can be learned about the labor market at present?
A. The demand of workers greatly exceeds the supply.
B. The increase of salaries has fueled the inflation.
C. The decline of job openings has caused unemployment.
D. The labor market has cooled but remains strong.