加息后美国会陷入经济衰退吗(上)

去年，美联储政策制定者连续加息以对抗数十年来增长最快的通胀，预测人士于是将衰退视作不是"如果"，而是"何时"的问题来讨论。

双语精读

The recession was supposed to have begun by now. Last year, as Federal Reserve policymakers relentlessly raised interest rates to combat the fastest inflation in decades, forecasters began talking as though a recession was not a question of "if" but "when."

经济衰退现在本应该已经开始了。去年，美联储政策制定者连续加息以对抗数十年来增长最快的通胀，预测人士于是将衰退视作不是"如果"，而是"何时"的问题来讨论。

Possibly in 2022. Probably in the first half of 2023. Surely by the end of the year. And as recently as December, less than a quarter of economists expected the United States to avoid a recession. But the year is more than half over, and the recession is nowhere to be found.

可能是在2022年。可能是在2023年上半年。肯定是在今年年底之前。就在去年12月，不到四分之一的经济学家预计美国将避免经济衰退。但今年已经过去了一大半，经济衰退的迹象依然无处可寻。

Certainly not in the job market, where the unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent, is hovering near a five-decade low. Not in consumer spending, which continues to grow, nor in corporate profits, which remain robust.

就业市场当然没有衰退迹象，3.6%的失业率徘徊在50年来的最低点附近。消费者支出方面也没有衰退迹象，支出还在持续增长，企业利润方面也没有衰退，企业利润依旧强劲。

Not even in the housing market, the industry that is usually most sensitive to rising interest rates, which has shown signs of stabilizing after slumping last year.

即使是通常对利率上升最敏感的房地产市场也没有衰退，在经历了去年的暴跌之后，房地产市场已经显示出企稳的迹象。

At the same time, inflation has slowed significantly, and looks set to keep cooling -- offering hope that interest-rate increases are nearing an end. After a year spent being surprised by the resilience of the recovery, economists are starting to wonder whether a recession is coming at all.

与此同时，通胀已经显著放缓，而且貌似将继续降温，这为加息接近尾声带来了希望。经济学家们在过去一年里都惊讶于经济复苏的韧性，他们开始怀疑衰退是否真的还会到来。

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US, told us that the chances of a soft landing are higher, referring to the possibility of bringing down inflation without causing an economic downturn. "I'm more optimistic than I was six months ago: That's the good news," she added.

毕马威美国的首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克表示，软着陆的可能性更高，她指的是在不导致经济下滑的情况下压低通胀的可能性。"我比六个月前更乐观了：这是个好消息。"她补充说。

The public is feeling sunnier, too, though hardly ebullient. Measures of consumer confidence have picked up recently, although surveys show that most Americans still expect a recession, or believe the country is already in one.

公众情绪也更乐观，尽管还算不上热情洋溢。衡量消费者信心的指标最近有所回升，尽管调查显示，大多数美国人仍然预计会出现衰退，或者认为美国已经身处衰退之中。

There is still plenty that could go wrong, which Ms. Swonk noted. Inflation could, again, prove more stubborn than expected, leading the Fed to press on with interest rate increases to curb it.

斯旺克指出，仍有很多地方可能会出问题。事实可能再次证明，通胀比预期的更顽固，从而导致美联储继续加息以遏制通胀。

Or, on the flip side, the steps the Fed has already taken could hit with a delay, sharply cooling the economy in a way that has not surfaced yet. And even a slowdown short of a recession could be painful, leading to layoffs that are likely to disproportionately hit Black and Hispanic workers.

或者情况相反，美联储已经采取的措施可能会延迟生效，大幅冷却了经济，只是这种影响还未显现。即使不是经济衰退，经济放缓也是痛苦的，由此而来的裁员可能会对黑人和西班牙裔员工造成格外严重的打击。

"Soft is in the eye of the beholder," said Nick Bunker, who is the director of North American economic research at the career site Indeed.

"对何为软着陆的判断因人而异。"求职网站Indeed的北美经济研究主管尼克·邦克说。

Economists are wary of declaring victory prematurely -- burned, perhaps, by past episodes in which they have done just that.

经济学家们对过早宣布胜利持谨慎态度，或许是因为在过去的几次事件中这种做法让他们吃了苦头。

In early 2008, for example, a string of positive economic data led some forecasters to conclude that the United States had managed to navigate the subprime mortgage crisis without falling into a recession; researchers later concluded that one had already begun.

例如，2008年初，一系列积极的经济数据让一些预测人士得出结论，美国已安然度过了次贷危机，没有陷入衰退，但研究人员后来得出结论，衰退已经开始了。

词汇预习

• economic [高考]

  美[ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk] | 英[ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪk]

  adj. 经济的，经济学的；有利可图的；节约的

• site [高考]

  美[saɪt] | 英[saɪt]

  n. 地点；位置；现场 vt. 使 ... 位于

• economy [高考]

  美[ɪˈkɑːnəmi] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmi]

  n. 经济；节约 adj. 经济的；廉价的

• recovery [高考]

  美[rɪˈkʌvəri] | 英[rɪˈkʌvəri]

  n. 恢复；痊愈；复原；重获

• sharply [高考]

  美[ˈʃɑrpli] | 英[ˈʃɑ:pli]

  adv. 锐利地；严厉地；厉害地；轮廓清晰、线条分明地

• corporate [高考]

  美[ˈkɔːrpərət] | 英[ˈkɔːpərət]

  adj. 法人的；公司的；社团的；共同的；全体的

• significantly [高考]

  美[sɪɡˈnɪfɪkəntli] | 英[sɪɡˈnɪfɪkəntli]

  adv. 意味深长地；意义深远地；重要地；较大地

• economist [高考]

  美[ɪˈkɑnəmɪst] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmɪst]

  n. 经济学家；[古]节俭的人

• navigate [高考]

  美[ˈnævɪɡeɪt] | 英[ˈnævɪɡeɪt]

  vi. 航行；驾驶；操纵 vt. 航行；驾驶；横渡；[口]设法穿过，走过，经过

• flip [高考]

  美[flɪp] | 英[flɪp]

  vt. 掷；轻击；弹 vi. 翻转 n. （跳水或体操动作中的）空翻；轻弹；浏览 adj. 无礼的；冒失的；轻率的

• data [高考]

  美[ˈdeɪtə] | 英[ˈdeɪtə]

  n. 数据；资料

• rate [高考]

  美[reɪt] | 英[reɪt]

  n. 比率；速度；价格；费用；等级 v. 认为；估价；定等级；值得；怒斥；责骂

• decade [高考]

  美[ˈdekeɪd] | 英[ˈdekeɪd]

  n. 十年，十年间，十年期（尤指一个年代)

• conclude [高考]

  美[kənˈkluːd] | 英[kənˈkluːd]

  vt. 推断出；缔结；使结束 vi. 结束；总结；作决定；作协议

• possibility [高考]

  美[ˌpɑːsəˈbɪləti] | 英[ˌpɒsəˈbɪləti]

  n. 可能；可能性；可能的事情；潜在的价值

• delay [高考]

  美[dɪˈleɪ] | 英[dɪˈleɪ]

  v. 耽搁；推迟；延误 n. 耽搁；延期；推迟

• sensitive [高考]

  美[ˈsensətɪv] | 英[ˈsensətɪv]

  adj. 灵敏的；敏感的；感光的；易受伤害的；善解人意的 n. 敏感的人

• Ms. [高考]

  美[mɪz] | 英[mɪz]

  n. 女士，小姐

• chief [高考]

  美[tʃiːf] | 英[tʃiːf]

  adj. 主要的；首要的 n. 首领

• unemployment [高考]

  美[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt] | 英[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt]

  n. 失业；失业人数

• stubborn [高考]

  美[ˈstʌbərn] | 英[ˈstʌbən]

  adj. 顽固的；倔强的；难对付的

• by the end of [高考]

  美[baɪ ði ɛnd ʌv] | 英[bai ðə end ɔv]

  到 ... 时为止； 在 ... 之前

• as though [高考]

  美[æz ðoʊ] | 英[æz ðəʊ]

  conj. 仿佛；好像

• in a way [高考]

  美[ɪn ə weɪ] | 英[ɪn ə weɪ]

  在某种程度上； 从某一点上看

• sensitive to [高考]

  美[ˈsɛnsɪtɪv tu] | 英[ˈsensitiv tu:]

  对 ... 敏感

• go wrong [高考]

  美[ɡo rɔŋ] | 英[ɡəu rɔŋ]

  出错； 发生故障

• housing [高考]

  美[ˈhaʊzɪŋ] | 英[ˈhaʊzɪŋ]

  n. 房屋；外壳；外套；外罩；住宅；卡箍；遮盖物；(芯片的)封装

• beholder [高考]

  美[bɪˈhoʊldər] | 英[bɪˈhəʊldə(r)]

  n. 旁观者

• combat [高考]

  美[ˈkɑːmbæt] | 英[ˈkɒmbæt]

  n. 战斗；试图解决 v. 战斗；与 ... 斗争；试图解决 adj. 战斗的

• where [高考]

  美[wer] | 英[weə(r)]

  adv. 在哪里；在那个地方 conj. 在 ... 地方

• recession [四级]

  美[rɪˈseʃn] | 英[rɪˈseʃn]

  n. 后退；（经济）不景气

• inflation [四级]

  美[ɪnˈfleɪʃn] | 英[ɪnˈfleɪʃn]

  n. 通货膨胀；膨胀

• curb [四级]

  美[kɜːrb] | 英[kɜːb]

  v. 控制，抑制; 约束，限定 n. 起控制（或限制）作用的事物

• downturn [四级]

  美[ˈdaʊntɜːrn] | 英[ˈdaʊntɜːn]

  n. 低迷时期

• mortgage [四级]

  美[ˈmɔːrɡɪdʒ] | 英[ˈmɔːɡɪdʒ]

  n. 按揭；抵押；抵押贷款 vt. 抵押

• slowdown [四级]

  美[ˈsloʊdaʊn] | 英[ˈsləʊdaʊn]

  n. 降低速度；减速

• short of [四级]

  美[ʃɔrt ʌv] | 英[ʃɔ:t ɔv]

  缺少； 达不到； 除 ... 以外

• leading [四级]

  美[ˈliːdɪŋ , ˈledɪŋ] | 英[ˈliːdɪŋ , ˈledɪŋ]

  adj. 领导的；指导的；主要的；在前的

• offering [四级]

  美[ˈɔːfərɪŋ] | 英[ˈɒfərɪŋ]

  n. 供品；作品；出售物

• robust [六级]

  美[roʊˈbʌst] | 英[rəʊˈbʌst]

  adj. 强健的；稳固的；耐用的；粗野的；浓的

• set to [六级]

  美[sɛt tu] | 英[set tu:]

  动手干； 认真开始干； 争论； 拳赛； 殴斗

• wary [六级]

  美[ˈweri] | 英[ˈweəri]

  adj. 小心的；机警的

• prematurely [专四]

  美[ˌpriməˈtjʊrlɪ] | 英['premətʃə(r)lɪ]

  adv. 过早地；早熟地

• landing [专四]

  美[ˈlændɪŋ] | 英[ˈlændɪŋ]

  n. 着陆；登陆；登陆处；楼梯平台

• resilience [专八]

  美[rɪˈzɪliəns] | 英[rɪˈzɪliəns]

  n. 适应力；弹性

• Hispanic [考研]

  美[hɪˈspænɪk] | 英[hɪˈspænɪk]

  adj. 西班牙的；西班牙语的 n. 讲西班牙语的人；美籍西班牙人

• disproportionately [考研]

  美[ˌdɪsprə'pɔʃənətlɪ] | 英[ˌdɪsprə'pɔ:ʃənətlɪ]

  adv. 不成比例地

• Federal [考研]

  美[ˈfedərəl] | 英[ˈfedərəl]

  adj. 联邦制的；联邦政府的；同盟的 n. 联邦主义者；同盟盟友

• noted [托福]

  美[ˈnoʊtɪd] | 英[ˈnəʊtɪd]

  adj. 著名的；有声望的

• less than [雅思]

  美[les ðən] | 英[les ðən]

  不到； 少于

重点讲解

The recession was supposed to have begun by now. Last year, as Federal Reserve policymakers relentlessly raised interest rates to combat the fastest inflation in decades, forecasters began talking as though a recession was not a question of "if" but "when."

经济衰退现在本应该已经开始了。去年，美联储政策制定者连续加息以对抗数十年来增长最快的通胀，预测人士于是将衰退视作不是"如果"，而是"何时"的问题来讨论。

relentlessly   adv. 不间断地；持续地（以强烈或极端的方式）

【例】She has campaigned relentlessly for her husband's release from prison.

她坚持不懈地开展运动，要求将她的丈夫从监狱释放。

He questioned her relentlessly.

他不停地逼问她。

【拓展】relentless  adj. 持续的；无情的

combat   n. & v.

1. 作名词：战斗；战役

【例】He was killed in combat. 

他在战斗中阵亡。

【辨析】battle/war  n. 战役/战争

2. 作动词：与……斗争

【例】to combat air pollution  与空气污染作斗争

【近义词】fight against  与……作斗争

Possibly in 2022. Probably in the first half of 2023. Surely by the end of the year. And as recently as December, less than a quarter of economists expected the United States to avoid a recession. But the year is more than half over, and the recession is nowhere to be found.

可能是在2022年。可能是在2023年上半年。肯定是在今年年底之前。就在去年12月，不到四分之一的经济学家预计美国将避免经济衰退。但今年已经过去了一大半，经济衰退的迹象依然无处可寻。

nowhere to be found/seen   不可能找到/看见

【例】The key was nowhere to be found. 

哪儿也找不到钥匙。

Certainly not in the job market, where the unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent, is hovering near a five-decade low. Not in consumer spending, which continues to grow, nor in corporate profits, which remain robust.

就业市场当然没有衰退迹象，3.6%的失业率徘徊在50年来的最低点附近。消费者支出方面也没有衰退迹象，支出还在持续增长，企业利润方面也没有衰退，企业利润依旧强劲。

hover   v. 

1. 悬停

【例】The hummingbird is the only bird that can truly hover.  

蜂鸟是唯一一种可以在空中真正悬停的鸟类。

2. 逗留在附近；徘徊

【例】He hovered nervously in the doorway. 

他在门口紧张地来回踱步。

3. 靠近（某事物）；处于不稳定状态

【例】Unemployment still hovers around 11 percent. 

失业率仍在11%上下波动。

slump   n. & v.

1. 作名词：（数量）骤降；萧条

【例】a slump in profits/a slump in the tourism industry 利润锐减/旅游业不景气

2. 作动词：重重倒下；骤降

【例】slump on the bed/slump by 50%  猛地倒在床上/暴跌50%

【近义词】plummet/plunge  v./n. 暴跌；骤降

Not even in the housing market, the industry that is usually most sensitive to rising interest rates, which has shown signs of stabilizing after slumping last year.

即使是通常对利率上升最敏感的房地产市场也没有衰退，在经历了去年的暴跌之后，房地产市场已经显示出企稳的迹象。

hover   v. 

1. 悬停

【例】The hummingbird is the only bird that can truly hover.  

蜂鸟是唯一一种可以在空中真正悬停的鸟类。

2. 逗留在附近；徘徊

【例】He hovered nervously in the doorway. 

他在门口紧张地来回踱步。

3. 靠近（某事物）；处于不稳定状态

【例】Unemployment still hovers around 11 percent. 

失业率仍在11%上下波动。

slump   n. & v.

1. 作名词：（数量）骤降；萧条

【例】a slump in profits/a slump in the tourism industry 利润锐减/旅游业不景气

2. 作动词：重重倒下；骤降

【例】slump on the bed/slump by 50%  猛地倒在床上/暴跌50%

【近义词】plummet/plunge  v./n. 暴跌；骤降

At the same time, inflation has slowed significantly, and looks set to keep cooling -- offering hope that interest-rate increases are nearing an end. After a year spent being surprised by the resilience of the recovery, economists are starting to wonder whether a recession is coming at all.

与此同时，通胀已经显著放缓，而且貌似将继续降温，这为加息接近尾声带来了希望。经济学家们在过去一年里都惊讶于经济复苏的韧性，他们开始怀疑衰退是否真的还会到来。

resilience   n. 快速恢复的能力

【例】the resilience of rubber/human body  橡胶的弹性/人体的复原力

【拓展】resilient  adj. 能够快速恢复

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US, told us that the chances of a soft landing are higher, referring to the possibility of bringing down inflation without causing an economic downturn. "I'm more optimistic than I was six months ago: That's the good news," she added.

毕马威美国的首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克表示，软着陆的可能性更高，她指的是在不导致经济下滑的情况下压低通胀的可能性。"我比六个月前更乐观了：这是个好消息。"她补充说。

downturn   n. （商业经济的）衰退，下降

【例】a downturn in sales 销量下跌

【近义词】downswing  n. 恶化趋势；向下走势

【反义词】upturn/upswing  n. 回升；好转

The public is feeling sunnier, too, though hardly ebullient. Measures of consumer confidence have picked up recently, although surveys show that most Americans still expect a recession, or believe the country is already in one.

公众情绪也更乐观，尽管还算不上热情洋溢。衡量消费者信心的指标最近有所回升，尽管调查显示，大多数美国人仍然预计会出现衰退，或者认为美国已经身处衰退之中。

downturn   n. （商业经济的）衰退，下降

【例】a downturn in sales 销量下跌

【近义词】downswing  n. 恶化趋势；向下走势

【反义词】upturn/upswing  n. 回升；好转

There is still plenty that could go wrong, which Ms. Swonk noted. Inflation could, again, prove more stubborn than expected, leading the Fed to press on with interest rate increases to curb it.

斯旺克指出，仍有很多地方可能会出问题。事实可能再次证明，通胀比预期的更顽固，从而导致美联储继续加息以遏制通胀。

press on with sth  坚决推进

【例】The company pressed on with plans to build the skyscraper.

公司继续推进建摩天大楼的计划。

【拓展】press sth on sb   非让某人接受某物

【例】The mother pressed some cabbage on the kid.

妈妈勉强着小孩吃了一些卷心菜。

flip side  （想法、论点或行动的）反面，不太好的一面

【例】The flip side of the treatment is that it can make patients feel very tired.

这种疗法的反面影响是病人会感觉非常疲倦。

short of   

1. 少于；没达到

【例】She was just three days short of her 90th birthday when she died. 

她去世时离90岁生日就差三天。

2. 如果不；除非

【例】Short of a miracle, we're certain to lose. 

除非发生奇迹，否则我们输定了。

disproportionately   adv. 不成比例地；格外地

【例】Their insurance is disproportionately expensive.

他们的保险格外贵。

【拓展】proportion  n. 比例

Or, on the flip side, the steps the Fed has already taken could hit with a delay, sharply cooling the economy in a way that has not surfaced yet. And even a slowdown short of a recession could be painful, leading to layoffs that are likely to disproportionately hit Black and Hispanic workers.

或者情况相反，美联储已经采取的措施可能会延迟生效，大幅冷却了经济，只是这种影响还未显现。即使不是经济衰退，经济放缓也是痛苦的，由此而来的裁员可能会对黑人和西班牙裔员工造成格外严重的打击。

press on with sth  坚决推进

【例】The company pressed on with plans to build the skyscraper.

公司继续推进建摩天大楼的计划。

【拓展】press sth on sb   非让某人接受某物

【例】The mother pressed some cabbage on the kid.

妈妈勉强着小孩吃了一些卷心菜。

flip side  （想法、论点或行动的）反面，不太好的一面

【例】The flip side of the treatment is that it can make patients feel very tired.

这种疗法的反面影响是病人会感觉非常疲倦。

short of   

1. 少于；没达到

【例】She was just three days short of her 90th birthday when she died. 

她去世时离90岁生日就差三天。

2. 如果不；除非

【例】Short of a miracle, we're certain to lose. 

除非发生奇迹，否则我们输定了。

disproportionately   adv. 不成比例地；格外地

【例】Their insurance is disproportionately expensive.

他们的保险格外贵。

【拓展】proportion  n. 比例

"Soft is in the eye of the beholder," said Nick Bunker, who is the director of North American economic research at the career site Indeed.

"对何为软着陆的判断因人而异。"求职网站Indeed的北美经济研究主管尼克·邦克说。

beauty is in the eye of the beholder  对美的判别因人而异

【例】He should not be afraid to say that he likes the painting, because beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

他不应该不敢说自己喜欢那幅画，因为不同人眼中的美是不一样的

Economists are wary of declaring victory prematurely -- burned, perhaps, by past episodes in which they have done just that.

经济学家们对过早宣布胜利持谨慎态度，或许是因为在过去的几次事件中这种做法让他们吃了苦头。

prematurely   adv. 过早地

【例】The child was born prematurely. 

这孩子是早产的。

【反义词】belatedly  adv. 迟来的；晚来的

navigate   v. 

1. 导航；确定位置和方向

【例】How do you navigate your way through a forest? 

你怎么才能找到路走出森林？

2. 找到正确应对方法（对付困难复杂的情况）

【例】We help new home-buyers navigate the complex and often confusing process of purchasing a property.

我们帮助首次购房的人顺利完成购买房产这一复杂且令人疑惑的过程。

In early 2008, for example, a string of positive economic data led some forecasters to conclude that the United States had managed to navigate the subprime mortgage crisis without falling into a recession; researchers later concluded that one had already begun.

例如，2008年初，一系列积极的经济数据让一些预测人士得出结论，美国已安然度过了次贷危机，没有陷入衰退，但研究人员后来得出结论，衰退已经开始了。

prematurely   adv. 过早地

【例】The child was born prematurely. 

这孩子是早产的。

【反义词】belatedly  adv. 迟来的；晚来的

navigate   v. 

1. 导航；确定位置和方向

【例】How do you navigate your way through a forest? 

你怎么才能找到路走出森林？

2. 找到正确应对方法（对付困难复杂的情况）

【例】We help new home-buyers navigate the complex and often confusing process of purchasing a property.

我们帮助首次购房的人顺利完成购买房产这一复杂且令人疑惑的过程。

课后练习

• What did the economists forecast last year?

  A. The Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates.

  B. An economic recession would be unavoidable.

  C. An economic downturn could be prevented.

  D. The inflation rate would remain high in 2023.

• There is no sign of recession because ____.

  A. the unemployment rate remains low

  B. consumer prices continue to increase

  C. corporate taxes are in a decline

  D. the housing prices are dropping

• Diane Swonk warned about the potential problem that ____.

  A. people were over-confident of the economy

  B. inflation might cool down very quickly

  C. the rate increases had shrunk the economy

  D. companies might cut salaries to avoid layoffs

• Economists are cautious about declaring victory because ____.

  A. the current economic data are negative

  B. they don’t want to repeat the mistake in 2008

  C. the impact of the financial crisis in 2008 lasts till now

  D. they believe the recession has already begun