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可以帮助谈判的AI工具
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可以帮助谈判的AI工具
混乱局面让经验丰富的谈判人员也难以跟上国内上级的步伐。人工智能模型或能助其一臂之力。 
双语精读
AI and the art of negotiations
人工智能和谈判艺术
In a messy age of grinding wars and multiplying tariffs, negotiators are as busy as the stakes are high. Alliances are shifting and political leaders are adjusting-if not reversing-positions.
在这个战事无休止、关税激增的混乱时代，谈判人员忙碌异常，利害关系也极其重大。联盟不断变化，政治领导人也在调整，甚至逆转立场。
The resulting tumult is giving even seasoned negotiators trouble keeping up with their superiors back home. Artificial-intelligence (AI) models may be able to lend a hand. Some such models are already under development.
由此引发的混乱局面让经验丰富的谈判人员也难以跟上国内上级的步伐。人工智能模型或能助其一臂之力，一些此类模型已在开发中。
One of the most advanced projects, dubbed Strategic Headwinds, aims to help Western diplomats in talks on Ukraine. Work began during the Biden administration in America, with officials on the White House's National Security Council (NSC) offering guidance to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think-tank in Washington that runs the project.
其中一个最先进的项目名为“战略逆风”，旨在帮助西方外交官就乌克兰问题进行谈判。该项目始于美国拜登政府时期，当时白宫的国家安全委员会(NSC)官员为负责该项目的华盛顿智库——国际战略研究中心(CSIS)——提供指导。
With peace talks under way, CSIS has speeded up its effort. Other outfits are doing similar work. The CSIS programme is led by a unit called the Futures Lab. This team developed an AI language model using software from Scale AI, a firm based in San Francisco, and unique training data.
随着和平谈判的进行，CSIS加快了工作进度。其他机构也在开展类似的工作。CSIS项目由一个名为“未来实验室”的小组牵头。该团队利用旧金山公司Scale AI的软件和独特的训练数据开发了一个AI语言模型。
The lab designed a tabletop strategy game called "Hetman's Shadow" in which Russia, Ukraine and their allies hammer out deals. Data from 45 experts who played the game were fed into the model.
未来实验室设计了一个名为“长官的影子”的桌面策略游戏，游戏中俄罗斯、乌克兰及其盟友会讨论制定协议。参与游戏的45位专家提供的数据被输入到该模型中。
So were media analyses of issues at stake in the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as answers provided by specialists to a questionnaire about the relative values of potential negotiation trade-offs.
媒体对俄乌战争关键问题的分析也被输入到模型中，此外还有专家对一份关于谈判中各种权衡的相对价值的问卷答复。
A database of 374 peace agreements and ceasefires was also poured in. Thus was born, in late February, the first iteration of the Ukraine-Russia Peace Agreement Simulator.
一个包含374份和平协议和停战协议的数据库也输入了进去。就这样，在二月底，诞生了俄乌和平协议模拟器的第一代版本。
Users enter preferences for outcomes grouped under four rubrics: territory and sovereignty; security arrangements; justice and accountability; and economic conditions. The AI model then cranks out a draft agreement. The software also scores, on a scale of one to ten, the likelihood that each of its components would be satisfactory, negotiable or unacceptable to Russia, Ukraine, America and Europe.
用户可输入四类结果偏好：领土和主权，安全安排，正义和问责，经济条件。然后，AI模型就会快速生成一份协议草案。该软件还会以1至10的评分，评估草案的各个部分对俄罗斯、乌克兰、美国、欧洲而言有多大可能性是令人满意的、可谈判的或不可接受的。
词汇预习
- economic [高考]
美[ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk] | 英[ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪk]
adj. 经济的，经济学的；有利可图的；节约的 - satisfactory [高考]
美[ˌsætɪsˈfæktəri] | 英[ˌsætɪsˈfæktəri]
adj. 令人满意的；够好的；可以的 - scale [高考]
美[skeɪl] | 英[skeɪl]
n. 等级，规模；刻度；音阶；量程；天枰
v. 攀登；到达…顶点；去鳞 - negotiation [高考]
美[nɪˌgoʊʃiˈeɪʃn] | 英[nɪˌgəʊʃiˈeɪʃn]
n. 谈判；协商 - data [高考]
美[ˈdeɪtə] | 英[ˈdeɪtə]
n. 数据；资料 - unique [高考]
美[juˈniːk] | 英[juˈniːk]
adj. 独特的；独一无二的；稀罕的 - media [高考]
美[ˈmiːdiə] | 英[ˈmiːdiə]
n. 传播媒介；(medium的复数)媒体；新闻媒介 - potential [高考]
美[pəˈtenʃl] | 英[pəˈtenʃl]
adj. 潜在的；可能的
n. 潜力；潜能
n. 电位；电势 - security [高考]
美[sɪˈkjʊrəti] | 英[sɪˈkjʊərəti]
n. 安全；保证；证券；债券；抵押；防护措施 - intelligence [高考]
美[ɪnˈtelɪdʒəns] | 英[ɪnˈtelɪdʒəns]
n. 智力；智慧；才智；（尤指关于敌国的）情报 - political [高考]
美[pəˈlɪtɪkl] | 英[pəˈlɪtɪkl]
adj. 政治的；政治上的；政党的；人事的；争权夺利的 - guidance [高考]
美[ˈɡaɪdns] | 英[ˈɡaɪdns]
n. 指导；引导；导航 - draft [高考]
美[dræft] | 英[drɑːft]
n. 草稿；草图；汇票；征兵
vt. 起草；征兵；选秀
adj. 酝酿中的 - software [高考]
美[ˈsɔːftwer] | 英[ˈsɒftweə(r)]
n. 软件 - justice [高考]
美[ˈdʒʌstɪs] | 英[ˈdʒʌstɪs]
n. 公平；公正；正义；司法；法官；法律制裁 - administration [高考]
美[ədˌmɪnɪˈstreɪʃn] | 英[ədˌmɪnɪˈstreɪʃn]
n. 实施；管理；行政；行政部门；任期 - tank [高考]
美[tæŋk] | 英[tæŋk]
n. 箱；罐；槽；贮水池；坦克
vt. 把 ... 储于槽中 - database [高考]
美[ˈdeɪtəbeɪs] | 英[ˈdeɪtəbeɪs]
n. 数据库 - questionnaire [高考]
美[ˌkwestʃəˈner] | 英[ˌkwestʃəˈneə(r)]
n. 调查表；问卷 - hammer [高考]
美[ˈhæmər] | 英[ˈhæmə(r)]
n. 锤；榔头
vi. 锤击；反复敲打
vt. 锤打；严厉批评 - territory [高考]
美[ˈterətɔːri] | 英[ˈterətri]
n. 领土；领域；版图；范围 - would [高考]
美[wʊd , wəd] | 英[wʊd , wəd]
aux. 将；可能；大概；总会；愿意；will的过去式 - messy [高考]
美[ˈmesi] | 英[ˈmesi]
adj. 散乱的；污秽的；麻烦的 - stake [四级]
美[steɪk] | 英[steɪk]
n. 桩；赌注；利害关系
v. 用桩支撑；下注 - unacceptable [四级]
美[ˌʌnɪkˈsɛptəbəl, -æk-] | 英[ˌʌnəkˈseptəbl]
adj. 不能接受的；不受欢迎的 - likelihood [四级]
美[ˈlaɪklihʊd] | 英[ˈlaɪklihʊd]
n. 可能性 - accountability [四级]
美[əˌkaʊntəˈbɪləti] | 英[əˌkaʊntəˈbɪləti]
n. 有责任；有义务 - under way [四级]
美['ʌndər weɪ] | 英['ʌndə weɪ]
在进行中 - advanced [四级]
美[ədˈvænst] | 英[ədˈvɑːnst]
adj. 先进的；高级的 - offering [四级]
美[ˈɔːfərɪŋ] | 英[ˈɒfərɪŋ]
n. 供品；作品；出售物 - provided [专四]
美[prəˈvaɪdɪd] | 英[prəˈvaɪdɪd]
conj. 假如；若是
adj. 预备好的；提供的 - tumult [专八]
美[ˈtuːmʌlt] | 英[ˈtjuːmʌlt]
n. 骚乱；嘈杂声；烦乱 - negotiable [专八]
美[nɪˈgoʊʃiəbl] | 英[nɪˈgəʊʃiəbl]
adj. 可协商的；可转让的；可通行的 - sovereignty [考研]
美[ˈsɑːvrənti] | 英[ˈsɒvrənti]
n. 主权；独立国 - at stake [考研]
美[æt steɪk] | 英[æt steɪk]
adj. 在危险中；处于成败关头
重点讲解
AI and the art of negotiations
人工智能和谈判艺术
multiply v. 做乘法；成倍增加
【例】Cigarette smoking multiplies the risk of cancer.
抽烟会大大增加得癌症的风险。
【拓展】multiple adj. 数量多的；多个的
【例】his multiple achievements 他的多项成就
In a messy age of grinding wars and multiplying tariffs, negotiators are as busy as the stakes are high. Alliances are shifting and political leaders are adjusting—if not reversing—positions.
在这个战事无休止、关税激增的混乱时代，谈判人员忙碌异常，利害关系也极其重大。联盟不断变化，政治领导人也在调整，甚至逆转立场。
multiply v. 做乘法；成倍增加
【例】Cigarette smoking multiplies the risk of cancer.
抽烟会大大增加得癌症的风险。
【拓展】multiple adj. 数量多的；多个的
【例】his multiple achievements 他的多项成就
The resulting tumult is giving even seasoned negotiators trouble keeping up with their superiors back home. Artificial-intelligence (AI) models may be able to lend a hand. Some such models are already under development.
由此引发的混乱局面让经验丰富的谈判人员也难以跟上国内上级的步伐。人工智能模型或能助其一臂之力，一些此类模型已在开发中。
lend a hand 提供帮助
【例】I went over to see if I could lend a hand.
我走过去看我能不能帮上忙。
【搭配】lend an ear to sb 倾听某人的话
lend support to sth 证明某事；提供证据
One of the most advanced projects, dubbed Strategic Headwinds, aims to help Western diplomats in talks on Ukraine. Work began during the Biden administration in America, with officials on the White House's National Security Council (NSC) offering guidance to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think-tank in Washington that runs the project.
其中一个最先进的项目名为“战略逆风”，旨在帮助西方外交官就乌克兰问题进行谈判。该项目始于美国拜登政府时期，当时白宫的国家安全委员会(NSC)官员为负责该项目的华盛顿智库——国际战略研究中心(CSIS)——提供指导。
With peace talks under way, CSIS has speeded up its effort. Other outfits are doing similar work. The CSIS programme is led by a unit called the Futures Lab. This team developed an AI language model using software from Scale AI, a firm based in San Francisco, and unique training data.
随着和平谈判的进行，CSIS加快了工作进度。其他机构也在开展类似的工作。CSIS项目由一个名为“未来实验室”的小组牵头。该团队利用旧金山公司Scale AI的软件和独特的训练数据开发了一个AI语言模型。
under way 正在进行中
【例】Preparations are well under way for a week of special events.
特别活动周的准备工作已经顺利开展。
【近义词】ongoing adj. 正在进行的
【搭配】under construction 正在修建中
under discussion 正在讨论中
under investigation 正在调查中
The lab designed a tabletop strategy game called "Hetman's Shadow" in which Russia, Ukraine and their allies hammer out deals. Data from 45 experts who played the game were fed into the model.
未来实验室设计了一个名为“长官的影子”的桌面策略游戏，游戏中俄罗斯、乌克兰及其盟友会讨论制定协议。参与游戏的45位专家提供的数据被输入到该模型中。
hammer out sth
1. 锻造出
【例】He hammer out beautiful dishes in silver.
他锻造出漂亮的银碟子。
2. 反复讨论出；充分研讨出
【例】They hammered out a compromise.
他们反复讨论，达成妥协。
【拓展】hammer n. 锤子
be at stake 有风险的；得失难料的
【例】I have to be careful. My whole career is at stake.
我必须小心行事，这事关我的整个职业生涯。
【拓展】high stakes 风险很高；利害攸关
trade-off n. 权衡；协调
【例】a trade-off between increased production and a reduction in quality
对产量增加和质量下降的权衡
【拓展】trade off A against B 权衡A和B
【拓展】trade A for B 用A交换B
【例】It’s a very good experience. I wouldn’t trade it for anything.
这是非常好的体验，拿什么我也不换。
So were media analyses of issues at stake in the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as answers provided by specialists to a questionnaire about the relative values of potential negotiation trade-offs.
媒体对俄乌战争关键问题的分析也被输入到模型中，此外还有专家对一份关于谈判中各种权衡的相对价值的问卷答复。
hammer out sth
1. 锻造出
【例】He hammer out beautiful dishes in silver.
他锻造出漂亮的银碟子。
2. 反复讨论出；充分研讨出
【例】They hammered out a compromise.
他们反复讨论，达成妥协。
【拓展】hammer n. 锤子
be at stake 有风险的；得失难料的
【例】I have to be careful. My whole career is at stake.
我必须小心行事，这事关我的整个职业生涯。
【拓展】high stakes 风险很高；利害攸关
trade-off n. 权衡；协调
【例】a trade-off between increased production and a reduction in quality
对产量增加和质量下降的权衡
【拓展】trade off A against B 权衡A和B
【拓展】trade A for B 用A交换B
【例】It’s a very good experience. I wouldn’t trade it for anything.
这是非常好的体验，拿什么我也不换。
A database of 374 peace agreements and ceasefires was also poured in. Thus was born, in late February, the first iteration of the Ukraine-Russia Peace Agreement Simulator.
一个包含374份和平协议和停战协议的数据库也输入了进去。就这样，在二月底，诞生了俄乌和平协议模拟器的第一代版本。
Users enter preferences for outcomes grouped under four rubrics: territory and sovereignty; security arrangements; justice and accountability; and economic conditions. The AI model then cranks out a draft agreement. The software also scores, on a scale of one to ten, the likelihood that each of its components would be satisfactory, negotiable or unacceptable to Russia, Ukraine, America and Europe.
用户可输入四类结果偏好：领土和主权，安全安排，正义和问责，经济条件。然后，AI模型就会快速生成一份协议草案。该软件还会以1至10的评分，评估草案的各个部分对俄罗斯、乌克兰、美国、欧洲而言有多大可能性是令人满意的、可谈判的或不可接受的。
group v. 分组；分类
【例】Contestants were grouped according to age.
参赛者按年龄分组。
【近义词】be divided into 分组；分类
be classified into 分组；分类
component n. 组成部分
【例】the components of a machine 机器的零部件
the key components of the policy 政策的关键组成部分
【拓展】compose v. 组成；构成
【例】Ten people compose a group.
十人组成一个小组。
课后练习
The Strategic Headwinds project is designed to ____.
A. predict global political trends
B. resolve trade conflicts caused by tariffs
C. strengthen military alliances in times of war
D. assist diplomats in Ukraine-related negotiationsWhat has the Futures Lab done in the CSIS programme?
A. It has provided guidance to the White House.
B. It has speeded up peace talks in Ukraine.
C. It has developed an AI language model.
D. It has collected massive unique data.How did the first iteration of the Ukraine-Russia Peace Agreement Simulator come into being?
A. By analyzing historical trade data between Russia and Ukraine.
B. By inputting relevant and specialized data into the AI model.
C. By upgrading a powerful algorithm and using special chips.
D. By applying accurate theories to the analysis of the issues.What can the AI model produce for users?
A. A detailed military strategy for winning the war.
B. Real-time updates on battlefield developments.
C. A financial analysis of post-war economic conditions.
D. A draft agreement with evaluations of different aspects.
