投资者如何应对反复通胀(上)

俗话说，买股票是为了做个美梦，买债券是为了睡个好觉。

双语精读

How should investors prepare for repeat inflation shocks?

投资者应该如何应对反复出现的通胀冲击?

Buy stocks so you can dream, buy bonds so you can sleep--or so the saying goes.

俗话说，买股票是为了做个美梦，买债券是为了睡个好觉。

A wise investor will aim to maximise their returns relative to risk, defined as volatility in the rate of return, and therefore hold some investments that will do well in good times and some in bad.

明智的投资者会努力将其收益最大化、风险最小化（风险被定义为回报率的波动性），因此他们持有的投资一部分可以在经济景气时表现良好，一部分可以在经济不景气时表现良好。

Stocks surge when the economy soars; bonds climb during a crisis. A mix of the two--often 60% stocks and 40% bonds--should help investors earn a nice return, without too much risk.

经济腾飞时，股票价格会暴涨；而在经济危机期间，债券价格会攀升。如果对这两者进行组合投资，通常来说当投资者持有60%的股票和40%的债券，就能够在不承担太大风险的情况下获得不错的收益。

Such a mix has been a sensible strategy for much of the past two decades. Since 2000 the average correlation between American stocks and Treasuries has been staunchly negative, at -0.5.

在过去20年的绝大多数时间里，这样的投资组合一直是一种明智之举。自2000年以来，美国股市和债市之间一直是负相关的关系，平均值为-0.5。

But the recent rout in both stock and bond prices has wrong-footed investors. In the first half of the year the S&P 500 shed 20.6% and an aggregate measure of the price of Treasuries lost 8.6%.

但最近股票和债券价格的暴跌让投资者措手不及。今年上半年，标准普尔500指数下跌了20.6%，衡量美国国债价格的一个综合指标也下跌了8.6%。

Is this an aberration or the new normal? The answer depends on whether higher inflation is here to stay. When economic growth drives asset prices, stocks and bonds diverge. When inflation drives them, stocks and bonds often move in tandem.

这是一种反常现象还是新常态？答案取决于较高的通胀是否会持续下去。当推动资产价格的是经济增长时，股票和债券就会出现分化。而当推动资产价格的是通胀时，股票和债券往往会同步变动。

On August 10th American inflation data showed prices did not rise in July. Stocks soared--the S&P 500 rose by 2.1%--and short-term Treasury prices climbed, too.

8月10日，美国通胀数据显示，7月份物价并未上涨。股市暴涨了----标准普尔500指数上涨了2.1%----与此同时，短期国债价格也有所上涨。

For as long as central bankers kept a lid on inflation, investors were protected. Yet look back before 2000, to a period when inflation was more common, and you see that stocks and bonds frequently moved in the same direction.

只要央行官员控制住了通胀，投资者就有保障。不过，回顾2000年前通胀发生频率更高的时期，你会发现股票和债券的走势经常是一致的。

AQR Capital Management, an investment firm, notes that in the 20th century the correlation between stocks and bonds was more often positive than negative.

投资公司AQR资本管理公司指出，在20世纪，股票和债券之间往往呈现为正相关关系。

Lots of hedge-fund types, pension-fund managers and private-equity barons are therefore worrying about the potential for repeat inflation shocks.

因此，许多对冲基金公司、养老基金经理和私募股权大亨都在担心可能会反复发生通胀冲击。

Last year the debate in the halls of finance was about whether inflation would be "transitory" or "persistent"; this year it is about whether it is "cyclical" or "structural".

去年，金融大厅里的人都在辩论通胀是"暂时性的"还是"持续性的"；今年人们辩论的话题则变成了通胀究竟是"周期性的"还是"结构性的"。

At the heart of this is not whether central bankers can bring down prices, but whether the underlying inflation dynamic has changed.

问题的核心不是央行官员能否压低价格，而是潜在的通胀动态是否发生了变化。

Those in the "structural" camp argue that the recent period of low inflation was an accident of history--helped by relatively calm energy markets, globalisation and Chinese demographics, which pushed down goods prices by lowering the cost of labour.

"结构性"阵营的人辩称，近期的低通胀是历史的意外----这得益于较为平静的能源市场、全球化和中国的人口结构，后者通过降低劳动力成本压低了商品价格。

词汇预习

• economic [高考]

  美[ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk] | 英[ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪk]

  adj. 经济的，经济学的；有利可图的；节约的

• frequently [高考]

  美[ˈfriːkwəntli] | 英[ˈfriːkwəntli]

  adv. 频繁地；经常地

• economy [高考]

  美[ɪˈkɑːnəmi] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmi]

  n. 经济；节约 adj. 经济的；廉价的

• relatively [高考]

  美[ˈrelətɪvli] | 英[ˈrelətɪvli]

  adv. 相对地；比较地

• investment [高考]

  美[ɪnˈvestmənt] | 英[ɪnˈvestmənt]

  n. 投资；投资额；投入

• asset [高考]

  美[ˈæset] | 英[ˈæset]

  n. 资产；优点；有用的东西

• sensible [高考]

  美[ˈsensəbl] | 英[ˈsensəbl]

  adj. 明智的；合情理的；可觉察的；实际的 n. 可感知物

• data [高考]

  美[ˈdeɪtə] | 英[ˈdeɪtə]

  n. 数据；资料

• growth [高考]

  美[ɡroʊθ] | 英[ɡrəʊθ]

  n. 【U】增长；生长；发展；种植 n. 【C】生长物；【医】瘤;赘生物

• potential [高考]

  美[pəˈtenʃl] | 英[pəˈtenʃl]

  adj. 潜在的；可能的 n. 潜力；潜能 n. 电位；电势

• rate [高考]

  美[reɪt] | 英[reɪt]

  n. 比率；速度；价格；费用；等级 v. 认为；估价；定等级；值得；怒斥；责骂

• debate [高考]

  美[dɪˈbeɪt] | 英[dɪˈbeɪt]

  n. 辩论；讨论 vt. 争论；思考 vi. 辩论

• bond [高考]

  美[bɑːnd] | 英[bɒnd]

  n. 债券；结合；协定；联系；情谊；黏合剂 vt. 使结合；为 ... 作保 vi. 连结；粘合

• finance [高考]

  美[ˈfaɪnæns] | 英[ˈfaɪnæns]

  n. 金融；财政；资金 vt. 给 ... 提供资金；负担经费

• labour [高考]

  美[ˈleɪbər] | 英[ˈleɪbə(r)]

  n. 劳动；劳工；分娩 v. 努力；干苦力活；困难吃力地行进；反复说明 n. (英国)工党

• dynamic [高考]

  美[daɪˈnæmɪk] | 英[daɪˈnæmɪk]

  adj. 动力的；动态的；有活力的；【音】力度变化的 n. 动力；动力学

• pension [高考]

  美[ˈpenʃn] | 英[ˈpenʃn]

  n. 养老金；退休金；抚恤金；年金；（欧洲等地的）私人小旅店 v. 发退休金

• lid [高考]

  美[lɪd] | 英[lɪd]

  n. 盖子；眼睑；限制 vt. 给…盖盖子

• bring down [高考]

  美[brɪŋ daʊn] | 英[brɪŋ daʊn]

  使倒下； 减少

• hedge [高考]

  美[hedʒ] | 英[hedʒ]

  n. 树篱；篱笆；障碍；防护物；套期保值；推诿 v. 用树篱围；避免直接回答；两面下注

• would [高考]

  美[wʊd , wəd] | 英[wʊd , wəd]

  aux. 将；可能；大概；总会；愿意；will的过去式

• shed [四级]

  美[ʃed] | 英[ʃed]

  vt. 除掉；使脱落；使流出；使清晰 n. 小屋；车棚

• structural [四级]

  美[ˈstrʌktʃərəl] | 英[ˈstrʌktʃərəl]

  adj. 结构的；构造的；建筑的；建筑用的

• inflation [四级]

  美[ɪnˈfleɪʃn] | 英[ɪnˈfleɪʃn]

  n. 通货膨胀；膨胀

• surge [四级]

  美[sɜːrdʒ] | 英[sɜːdʒ]

  n. 汹涌；波涛；猛增 v. 汹涌；涌起；激增；[海]缆绳滑脱

• investor [四级]

  美[ɪnˈvɛstɚ] | 英[ɪnˈvestə(r)]

  n. 投资者

• persistent [四级]

  美[pərˈsɪstənt] | 英[pəˈsɪstənt]

  adj. 坚持的；连续的；固执的

• short-term [四级]

  美[ˌʃɔːrt ˈtɜːrm] | 英[ˌʃɔːt ˈtɜːm]

  adj. 短期的

• see that [四级]

  美[si ðæt] | 英[si: ðæt]

  注意, 务必, 保证

• rise in [四级]

  美 | 英

  在……方面的增加；上涨

• relative to [四级]

  美[ˈrɛlətɪv tu] | 英[ˈrelətiv tu:]

  关于； 相对于

• move in [四级]

  美[muv ɪn] | 英[mu:v in]

  vt. 搬进；迁入

• equity [六级]

  美[ˈekwəti] | 英[ˈekwəti]

  n. 公平；公正 n. 衡平法；权益；产权；(无固定利息的)股票

• aggregate [六级]

  美[ˈæɡrɪɡət , ˈæɡrɪɡeɪt] | 英[ˈæɡrɪɡət , ˈæɡrɪɡeɪt]

  adj. 合计的；总的 n. 总计；进球总数；集料 v. （使）聚集；总计

• correlation [六级]

  美[ˌkɔːrəˈleɪʃn] | 英[ˌkɒrəˈleɪʃn]

  n. 相互关系；相关；关联

• diverge [六级]

  美[daɪˈvɜːrdʒ] | 英[daɪˈvɜːdʒ]

  v. 分歧；分叉；[数]发散

• or so [六级]

  美[ɔːr soʊ] | 英[ɔː(r) səʊ]

  大约;左右;把

• cyclical [专四]

  美[ˈsɪklɪkəl] | 英[ˈsɪklɪkəl]

  adj. 循环的；周期的

• underlying [专四]

  美[ˌʌndərˈlaɪɪŋ] | 英[ˌʌndəˈlaɪɪŋ]

  adj. 潜在的；隐含的；在下面的；基本的；[经]优先的

• volatility [专八]

  美[ˌvɑləˈtɪləti] | 英[ˌvɒləˈtɪlɪti]

  n. 挥发性；挥发度；轻快；(性格)反复无常

• transitory [专八]

  美[ˈtrænzətɔːri] | 英[ˈtrænzətri]

  adj. 暂时的；瞬息的；短暂的；片刻的

• maximise [雅思]

  美['mæksəmaɪz] | 英['mæksɪmaɪz]

  vt. 使（某事物）增至最大限度; 最大限度地利用（某事物）

重点讲解

How should**** investors prepare for repeat**** inflation shocks****?****

投资者应该如何应对反复出现的通胀冲击?

Buy stocks**** so**** you can dream,**** buy bonds so**** you can sleep--or so**** the saying**** goes****.****

俗话说，买股票是为了做个美梦，买债券是为了睡个好觉。

A wise**** investor**** will**** aim to**** maximise**** their returns relative**** to**** risk****,**** defined as**** volatility**** in**** the rate**** of**** return****,**** and therefore hold**** some**** investments that**** will**** do**** well**** in**** good**** times and some**** in**** bad.****

明智的投资者会努力将其收益最大化、风险最小化（风险被定义为回报率的波动性），因此他们持有的投资一部分可以在经济景气时表现良好，一部分可以在经济不景气时表现良好。

Stocks surge when the economy soars; bonds climb during a crisis. A mix of the two--often 60% stocks and 40% bonds--should help investors earn a nice return, without too much risk.

经济腾飞时，股票价格会暴涨；而在经济危机期间，债券价格会攀升。如果对这两者进行组合投资，通常来说当投资者持有60%的股票和40%的债券，就能够在不承担太大风险的情况下获得不错的收益。

surge   n. & v.

1. 作名词

（1）（数量的）急剧上升，激增

【搭配】a surge in/ of sth ...的激增

【例】We are having trouble keeping up with the recent surge in demand. 

对于近来出现的需求猛增，我们难以应对。

（2）（强烈感情的）突发

【例】to feel a surge of panic 感到一阵惊慌

（3）波涛般汹涌的事物

【例】a sudden surge of dense smoke 浓烟突然滚滚冒出

2. 作动词

（1）涌；汹涌；涌动

【例】Flood waters surged into their homes. 

洪水涌进了他们的房子。

（2）使强烈地感到

【例】Anger surged within him. 他怒火中烧。

（3）急剧上升；飞涨；激增

【例】Oil price has surged 40 percent in the past year. 

原油价格一年来猛涨了40%。

soar    v. 

1. 急升；猛增

【例】Unemployment has soared to 18%. 

失业率猛升到了18%。

2. 升空；高飞

【例】The rocket soared into the air. 

火箭升空。

3. （情绪）高涨

【例】His hopes soared. 

他的期望高涨.

Such a mix has been a sensible strategy for much of the past two decades. Since 2000 the average correlation between American stocks and Treasuries has been staunchly negative, at -0.5.

在过去20年的绝大多数时间里，这样的投资组合一直是一种明智之举。自2000年以来，美国股市和债市之间一直是负相关的关系，平均值为-0.5。

rout     n. & v.

1. 作名词：溃败；彻底失败

【例】The enemy was in full rout. 敌人全军溃退。

【搭配】put sb to rout 彻底打败某人

2. 作动词：彻底击败；使溃败

【例】Our team routed its opponents by a score of ten to one. 

我队以10比1大败对方。

wrong-foot   v. 使措手不及；使手忙脚乱

（英文释义：to cause someone to be in a difficult situation by doing something unexpected）

【例】I tried to wrong-foot them with another question. 

我试着用另一问题去打乱他们的阵脚。

But the recent rout in both stock and bond prices has wrong-footed investors. In the first half of the year the S&P 500 shed 20.6% and an aggregate measure of the price of Treasuries lost 8.6%.

但最近股票和债券价格的暴跌让投资者措手不及。今年上半年，标准普尔500指数下跌了20.6%，衡量美国国债价格的一个综合指标也下跌了8.6%。

rout     n. & v.

1. 作名词：溃败；彻底失败

【例】The enemy was in full rout. 敌人全军溃退。

【搭配】put sb to rout 彻底打败某人

2. 作动词：彻底击败；使溃败

【例】Our team routed its opponents by a score of ten to one. 

我队以10比1大败对方。

wrong-foot   v. 使措手不及；使手忙脚乱

（英文释义：to cause someone to be in a difficult situation by doing something unexpected）

【例】I tried to wrong-foot them with another question. 

我试着用另一问题去打乱他们的阵脚。

Is this an aberration or the new normal? The answer depends on whether higher inflation is here to stay. When economic growth drives asset prices, stocks and bonds diverge. When inflation drives them, stocks and bonds often move in tandem.

这是一种反常现象还是新常态？答案取决于较高的通胀是否会持续下去。当推动资产价格的是经济增长时，股票和债券就会出现分化。而当推动资产价格的是通胀时，股票和债券往往会同步变动。

here to stay   被普遍接受；成为常态

（英文释义：to be accepted by most people and therefore a permanent part of our lives）

【例】Higher oil prices are here to stay, so we'd better get used to them.

高油价会变成常态，所以我们最好适应这种情况。

in tandem    同时进行；协同地；并驾齐驱

（英文释义：If something is done in tandem, two people develop or work on it together or during the same period of time.）

【例】This director and composer have worked in tandem on several films.

这名导演和作曲家已经合作了好几部电影。

【搭配】in tandem with sb/sth  与某人/某物协同

On August 10th American inflation data showed prices did not rise in July. Stocks soared--the S&P 500 rose by 2.1%--and short-term Treasury prices climbed, too.

8月10日，美国通胀数据显示，7月份物价并未上涨。股市暴涨了----标准普尔500指数上涨了2.1%----与此同时，短期国债价格也有所上涨。

keep a lid on sth

1. 把……控制住；抑制住

（英文释义：to keep sth under control）

【例】to keep a lid on manufacturing costs 控制住制造成本

2. 守口如瓶；保守秘密

【例】He is unable to keep a lid on his role in the murder. 

他无法隐瞒自己在谋杀案中所扮演的角色。

【拓展】lid相关的一些表达：

1. take the lid off sth   揭露……的真相

【例】to take the lid off a nasty scandal 揭发一桩肮脏的丑闻

2. put the lid on sth  对……的决定性打击；最后使（计划）落空

（英文释义：to be the final act or event that spoils your plans or hopes）

【例】These latest regulations have put the lid on our plans. 

最近这些规定最终使我们的计划落空了。

For as long as central bankers kept a lid on inflation, investors were protected. Yet look back before 2000, to a period when inflation was more common, and you see that stocks and bonds frequently moved in the same direction.

只要央行官员控制住了通胀，投资者就有保障。不过，回顾2000年前通胀发生频率更高的时期，你会发现股票和债券的走势经常是一致的。

keep a lid on sth

1. 把……控制住；抑制住

（英文释义：to keep sth under control）

【例】to keep a lid on manufacturing costs 控制住制造成本

2. 守口如瓶；保守秘密

【例】He is unable to keep a lid on his role in the murder. 

他无法隐瞒自己在谋杀案中所扮演的角色。

【拓展】lid相关的一些表达：

1. take the lid off sth   揭露……的真相

【例】to take the lid off a nasty scandal 揭发一桩肮脏的丑闻

2. put the lid on sth  对……的决定性打击；最后使（计划）落空

（英文释义：to be the final act or event that spoils your plans or hopes）

【例】These latest regulations have put the lid on our plans. 

最近这些规定最终使我们的计划落空了。

AQR Capital Management****,**** an**** investment**** firm****,**** notes that**** in**** the 20th**** century the correlation between stocks**** and bonds was more**** often positive**** than**** negative****.****

投资公司AQR资本管理公司指出，在20世纪，股票和债券之间往往呈现为正相关关系。

Lots**** of**** hedge-fund**** types,**** pension-fund**** managers**** and private-equity**** barons**** are therefore worrying**** about the potential for repeat**** inflation shocks****.****

因此，许多对冲基金公司、养老基金经理和私募股权大亨都在担心可能会反复发生通胀冲击。

Last year the debate in the halls of finance was about whether inflation would be "transitory" or "persistent"; this year it is about whether it is "cyclical" or "structural".

去年，金融大厅里的人都在辩论通胀是"暂时性的"还是"持续性的"；今年人们辩论的话题则变成了通胀究竟是"周期性的"还是"结构性的"。

at the heart of sth   某物的核心/重点

（英文释义：the most important part of sth）

【例】A disagreement about boundaries is at the heart of the dispute.

争论的核心是关于边界的分歧。

【拓展】strike to the heart of sth 直击某物的要害

bring down

1. 减少；降低

【例】Drugs can bring your blood pressure down.

药物可以降低你的血压。

2. 打垮；击败

【例】The scandal may bring down the government. 

那件丑闻可能使政府垮台。

3. 击落

【例】to bring down enemy fighters 击落敌军战斗机

At the heart of this is not whether central bankers can bring down prices, but whether the underlying inflation dynamic has changed.

问题的核心不是央行官员能否压低价格，而是潜在的通胀动态是否发生了变化。

at the heart of sth   某物的核心/重点

（英文释义：the most important part of sth）

【例】A disagreement about boundaries is at the heart of the dispute.

争论的核心是关于边界的分歧。

【拓展】strike to the heart of sth 直击某物的要害

bring down

1. 减少；降低

【例】Drugs can bring your blood pressure down.

药物可以降低你的血压。

2. 打垮；击败

【例】The scandal may bring down the government. 

那件丑闻可能使政府垮台。

3. 击落

【例】to bring down enemy fighters 击落敌军战斗机

Those in**** the "structural"**** camp**** argue that**** the recent**** period**** of**** low inflation was an**** accident**** of**** history--helped by**** relatively**** calm**** energy**** markets,**** globalisation and Chinese demographics****,**** which pushed**** down**** goods prices**** by**** lowering**** the cost**** of**** labour****.****

"结构性"阵营的人辩称，近期的低通胀是历史的意外----这得益于较为平静的能源市场、全球化和中国的人口结构，后者通过降低劳动力成本压低了商品价格。

课后练习

• Over the past two decades, a sensible investment strategy is to ____.

  A. aim for returns in good times and stability in bad times

  B. lower the expectation of returns and avoid volatility

  C. hold an investment combination of stocks and bonds

  D. adjust the investment portfolio frequently to the economy

• The recent change in American stocks and Treasuries is that ____.

  A. the average correlation between them is negative

  B. their returns are decreasing instead of rising

  C. investors have lost confidence in them

  D. their prices are moving in the same direction

• The rise of stocks and Treasury prices in August indicates ____.

  A. a boom in the economy

  B. a low rate of inflation

  C. the effectiveness of financial policies

  D. the possibility of repeated inflation shocks

• The most important part of the inflation issue is ____.

  A. how to protect the interests of investors

  B. how to determine the inflation dynamic

  C. how to predict the cycle of inflation

  D. how to bring inflation under control