投资者如何应对反复通胀(下)

但现在这些顺风已经转向了。新冠肺炎扰乱了供应链；战争和武力威胁正在削弱全球化进程。

双语精读

These tailwinds have turned. Covid-19 messed up supply chains; war and sabre-rattling are undermining globalisation. Manoj Pradhan, formerly of Morgan Stanley, points out that China's working-age population has peaked.

但现在这些顺风已经转向了。新冠肺炎扰乱了供应链；战争和武力威胁正在削弱全球化进程。曾就职于摩根士丹利的马诺杰·普拉丹指出，中国的劳动年龄人口已经达到顶峰。

Jeremy Grantham, a bearish hedge-fund investor, fears that the switch to renewables will be slow and costly, and that lower investment in fossil-fuel production will make it hard for energy firms to ramp up supply, increasing the risk of energy-price spikes.

看空对冲基金的投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆担心，向可再生能源的转变会费时又费钱，化石燃料生产投资减少将使能源公司难以增加供应，从而增加能源价格飙升的风险。

All this, the structuralists argue, means the current inflation shock is likely to be the first of many: central bankers will be playing whack-a-mole for a while yet. Recurrent inflation would upend 20 years of portfolio-management strategy.

结构主义者辩称，这一切意味着，当前的通胀冲击很可能只是一连串冲击的开端而已：央行官员们还得再打一会儿地鼠。反复出现的通胀将颠覆20年来的投资组合管理策略。

If the correlation between stocks and bonds shifts from -0.5 to +0.5 the volatility of a "60/40" portfolio increases by around 20%. In a bid to avoid being wrong-footed once again, investors are updating their plans.

如果股票和债券之间的相关系数从-0.5变成+0.5，"60/40"投资组合的波动率就会增加20%左右。为了避免再次措手不及，投资者正在更新他们的计划。

As Barry Gill of UBS's asset-management arm puts it, the task is "to realign your portfolio around this new reality".

正如瑞银资产管理部门的巴里·吉尔所说，投资者需要"围绕这一新的现实情况重新调整投资组合"。

What assets will allow investors to sleep soundly in this new reality? Cryptocurrencies once looked like an interesting hedge, but this year they have fallen and risen in lockstep with stocks.

什么样的资产才能让投资者在这种新的现实情况下睡个安稳觉？加密货币一度看起来像是一种有趣的对冲工具，但今年它们的涨跌与股市同步。

A recent paper by KKR, a private asset-management firm, argues, perhaps unsurprisingly, that illiquid alternatives, like private equity and credit, are a good way to diversify.

私人资产管理公司KKR最近的一篇论文认为，私募股权和信贷等非流动性的替代选择是扩大业务范围的好方法，这或许并不令人意外。

But that may be an illusion: illiquid assets are rarely marked-to-market, and are exposed to the same underlying economic forces as stocks and bonds. There are other options.

但这可能是一种错觉：非流动性资产很少按市值计价，可能受到的经济力量影响还与股票和债券相同。还有其他选择。

AQR suggests stock-picking strategies where success has little to do with broader economic conditions, such as "long-short" equity investing (going long on one firm and short on another).

AQR建议采用几乎不依靠整体经济状况就能成功的选股策略，例如"多空"股票投资（即做多一家公司，做空另一家公司）。

Meanwhile, commodities are the natural choice for those worried about a disorderly green transition, since a basket of them appears to be uncorrelated with stocks and bonds over long periods.

与此同时，对于那些担心无序绿色转型的人来说，大宗商品是自然而然的选择，因为从长期来看，一篮子大宗商品似乎与股票和债券无关。

In the search for new ways to minimise risk, investors dreaming of high returns will have to get creative. That, at least, should tire them out by the end of the day.

在寻找将风险降至最低的新方法时，渴望高回报的投资者将必须发挥创造力。总之，这至少会让他们在一天结束之时筋疲力尽。

词汇预习

• economic [高考]

  美[ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk] | 英[ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪk]

  adj. 经济的，经济学的；有利可图的；节约的

• current [高考]

  美[ˈkɜːrənt] | 英[ˈkʌrənt]

  n. 趋势；(水、气、电)流 adj. 现在的；流通的

• rarely [高考]

  美[ˈrerli] | 英[ˈreəli]

  adv. 很少；难得

• investment [高考]

  美[ɪnˈvestmənt] | 英[ɪnˈvestmənt]

  n. 投资；投资额；投入

• transition [高考]

  美[trænˈzɪʃn] | 英[trænˈzɪʃn]

  n. 转变；过渡

• fossil [高考]

  美[ˈfɑːsl] | 英[ˈfɒsl]

  n. 化石；食古不化的人；守旧的事物

• costly [高考]

  美[ˈkɔːstli] | 英[ˈkɒstli]

  adj. 昂贵的；代价高的

• formerly [高考]

  美[ˈfɔːrmərli] | 英[ˈfɔːməli]

  adv. 以前；从前

• asset [高考]

  美[ˈæset] | 英[ˈæset]

  n. 资产；优点；有用的东西

• diversify [高考]

  美[daɪˈvɜːrsɪfaɪ] | 英[daɪˈvɜːsɪfaɪ]

  vt. 使多样化；使变化；使不同 vi. 多样化

• switch [高考]

  美[swɪtʃ] | 英[swɪtʃ]

  n. 转换；开关；鞭子 v. 改变；交换；转换；鞭打

• bid [高考]

  美[bɪd] | 英[bɪd]

  v. （买方）出价；投标；吩咐；叫牌 n. 出价；努力；叫牌

• by the end of [高考]

  美[baɪ ði ɛnd ʌv] | 英[bai ðə end ɔv]

  到 ... 时为止； 在 ... 之前

• means [高考]

  美[miːnz] | 英[miːnz]

  n. 方法；手段；收入；财产 v. 意思是，意味（动词mean的第三人称单数）

• lower [高考]

  美[ˈloʊər] | 英[ˈləʊə(r)]

  adj. 低的；下级的；下层的 v. 降低；减弱；跌落

• hedge [高考]

  美[hedʒ] | 英[hedʒ]

  n. 树篱；篱笆；障碍；防护物；套期保值；推诿 v. 用树篱围；避免直接回答；两面下注

• where [高考]

  美[wer] | 英[weə(r)]

  adv. 在哪里；在那个地方 conj. 在 ... 地方

• would [高考]

  美[wʊd , wəd] | 英[wʊd , wəd]

  aux. 将；可能；大概；总会；愿意；will的过去式

• worried [高考]

  美[ˈwɜːrid] | 英[ˈwʌrid]

  adj. 担心的；烦恼的

• inflation [四级]

  美[ɪnˈfleɪʃn] | 英[ɪnˈfleɪʃn]

  n. 通货膨胀；膨胀

• investor [四级]

  美[ɪnˈvɛstɚ] | 英[ɪnˈvestə(r)]

  n. 投资者

• illusion [四级]

  美[ɪˈluːʒn] | 英[ɪˈluːʒn]

  n. 错觉；幻觉；错误的信仰(或观念)

• make it [四级]

  美[mek ɪt] | 英[meik it]

  成功 达到预定目标,性交易,幸存

• do with [四级]

  美[dʊ wɪð] | 英[duː wɪð]

  处理； 利用； 忍受； 需要； 相处

• switch to [四级]

  美[swɪtʃ tu] | 英[switʃ tu:]

  v.切换到，转到，转变成;转入

• equity [六级]

  美[ˈekwəti] | 英[ˈekwəti]

  n. 公平；公正 n. 衡平法；权益；产权；(无固定利息的)股票

• correlation [六级]

  美[ˌkɔːrəˈleɪʃn] | 英[ˌkɒrəˈleɪʃn]

  n. 相互关系；相关；关联

• underlying [专四]

  美[ˌʌndərˈlaɪɪŋ] | 英[ˌʌndəˈlaɪɪŋ]

  adj. 潜在的；隐含的；在下面的；基本的；[经]优先的

• whack [专八]

  美[hwæk, wæk] | 英[wæk]

  v. 敲击；重打；瓜分 n. 重击；重打；尝试；一份

• volatility [专八]

  美[ˌvɑləˈtɪləti] | 英[ˌvɒləˈtɪlɪti]

  n. 挥发性；挥发度；轻快；(性格)反复无常

• unsurprisingly [考研]

  美[ˌʌnsərpraɪzɪŋli] | 英[ˌʌnsəpraɪzɪŋli]

  adv. 不出所料地；不出奇地；意料中地

• upend [考研]

  美[ʌpˈɛnd] | 英[ʌpˈend]

  v. 竖立；颠倒；颠覆；倒立

• marked [托福]

  美[mɑːrkt] | 英[mɑːkt]

  adj. 有记号的；显著的；受监视的 v. 弄污；打分；留意；做标记（动词mark的过去式和过去分词）

• minimise [雅思]

  美['mɪnɪmaɪz] | 英['mɪnɪmaɪz]

  vt. 尽量减少；使最小化

重点讲解

These tailwinds have turned. Covid-19 messed up supply chains; war and sabre-rattling are undermining globalisation. Manoj Pradhan, formerly of Morgan Stanley, points out that China's working-age population has peaked.

但现在这些顺风已经转向了。新冠肺炎扰乱了供应链；战争和武力威胁正在削弱全球化进程。曾就职于摩根士丹利的马诺杰·普拉丹指出，中国的劳动年龄人口已经达到顶峰。

mess up sth    把……弄糟；打乱（安排等）

（英文释义：to spoil sth or do it badly）

【例】Her late arrival messed up our plans. 

她的迟到打乱了我们的计划。

【拓展】mess around  胡闹；瞎闹

【例】 Will you stop messing around and get on with some work? 

别瞎闹了，干点正经事儿不行吗？

sabre-rattling    n. 武力威胁；武力恫吓

【例】He rarely puts his threats into practice—usually it's just sabre-rattling.

他很少把自己的威胁付诸实施——通常只是武力恫吓。

【拓展】sabre  n. 军刀；马刀    rattle 发出连续短促的声音 

Jeremy Grantham, a bearish hedge-fund investor, fears that the switch to renewables will be slow and costly, and that lower investment in fossil-fuel production will make it hard for energy firms to ramp up supply, increasing the risk of energy-price spikes.

看空对冲基金的投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆担心，向可再生能源的转变会费时又费钱，化石燃料生产投资减少将使能源公司难以增加供应，从而增加能源价格飙升的风险。

ramp up sth  使某物数量增加；提高

【例】to ramp up share prices 提高股票价格

spike    n. & v.

1. 作名词：猛增；急升

【例】a spike in house prices  房价猛增

2. 作动词：迅速升值；急剧增加

【例】The US dollar spiked to a three-month high. 

美元猛然升值到三个月来的最高价。

All this, the structuralists argue, means the current inflation shock is likely to be the first of many: central bankers will be playing whack-a-mole for a while yet. Recurrent inflation would upend 20 years of portfolio-management strategy.

结构主义者辩称，这一切意味着，当前的通胀冲击很可能只是一连串冲击的开端而已：央行官员们还得再打一会儿地鼠。反复出现的通胀将颠覆20年来的投资组合管理策略。

whack-a-mole   n. 打地鼠；问题重复出现的情况

（英文释义：a situation in which repeated efforts to resolve a problem are frustrated by the problem reappearing in a different form）

【例】Trying to navigate through global market stresses is like "whack-a-mole".

努力应对全球市场压力就像玩打地鼠游戏。

upend    v. 

1. 翻倒；使倒立

【例】The bicycle lay upended in a ditch. 

自行车翻倒在一条小水沟里。

2. 颠覆；倾覆

【例】The book argues that rapidly evolving technology will upend the power structure of society.

本书提出，快速发展的科技将颠覆社会的权力结构。

If the correlation between stocks and bonds shifts from -0.5 to +0.5 the volatility of a "60/40" portfolio increases by around 20%. In a bid to avoid being wrong-footed once again, investors are updating their plans.

如果股票和债券之间的相关系数从-0.5变成+0.5，"60/40"投资组合的波动率就会增加20%左右。为了避免再次措手不及，投资者正在更新他们的计划。

in a bid to do sth   努力争取做某事

【例】The two sides have been locked in discussion in a bid to find a compromise. 

双方在无休止地谈判, 试图找到一个妥协方案.

As Barry Gill of UBS's asset-management arm puts it, the task is "to realign your portfolio around this new reality".

正如瑞银资产管理部门的巴里·吉尔所说，投资者需要"围绕这一新的现实情况重新调整投资组合"。

in a bid to do sth   努力争取做某事

【例】The two sides have been locked in discussion in a bid to find a compromise. 

双方在无休止地谈判, 试图找到一个妥协方案.

What assets will allow investors to sleep soundly in this new reality? Cryptocurrencies once looked like an interesting hedge, but this year they have fallen and risen in lockstep with stocks.

什么样的资产才能让投资者在这种新的现实情况下睡个安稳觉？加密货币一度看起来像是一种有趣的对冲工具，但今年它们的涨跌与股市同步。

lockstep    n. 齐步走；步伐一致

【例】Politicians and the media are marching in lockstep on this issue.

政界和媒体在这一问题上保持一致。

【拓展】in lockstep with   和...保持同步，步调一致

A recent**** paper by**** KKR,**** a private asset-management**** firm****,**** argues****,**** perhaps unsurprisingly****,**** that**** illiquid**** alternatives****,**** like**** private equity**** and credit****,**** are a good**** way to**** diversify.****

私人资产管理公司KKR最近的一篇论文认为，私募股权和信贷等非流动性的替代选择是扩大业务范围的好方法，这或许并不令人意外。

But that**** may be**** an**** illusion****:**** illiquid**** assets**** are rarely**** marked****-to****-market****,**** and are exposed to**** the same**** underlying**** economic**** forces**** as**** stocks**** and bonds.**** There are other options.****

但这可能是一种错觉：非流动性资产很少按市值计价，可能受到的经济力量影响还与股票和债券相同。还有其他选择。

AQR suggests stock-picking strategies where success has little to do with broader economic conditions, such as "long-short" equity investing (going long on one firm and short on another).

AQR建议采用几乎不依靠整体经济状况就能成功的选股策略，例如"多空"股票投资（即做多一家公司，做空另一家公司）。

have little to do with...    与……没有太大关系

（英文释义：used to talk about how little sb/sth is connected with sb/sth）

【例】He has little to do with the decision to delay the wedding. 

他和推迟婚礼的决定没什么关系。

【拓展】have something/nothing/a lot to do with... 与……有一些/毫无/很大关系

Meanwhile, commodities are the natural choice for those worried about a disorderly green transition, since a basket of them appears to be uncorrelated with stocks and bonds over long periods.

与此同时，对于那些担心无序绿色转型的人来说，大宗商品是自然而然的选择，因为从长期来看，一篮子大宗商品似乎与股票和债券无关。

have little to do with...    与……没有太大关系

（英文释义：used to talk about how little sb/sth is connected with sb/sth）

【例】He has little to do with the decision to delay the wedding. 

他和推迟婚礼的决定没什么关系。

【拓展】have something/nothing/a lot to do with... 与……有一些/毫无/很大关系

In the search for new ways to minimise risk, investors dreaming of high returns will have to get creative. That, at least, should tire them out by the end of the day.

在寻找将风险降至最低的新方法时，渴望高回报的投资者将必须发挥创造力。总之，这至少会让他们在一天结束之时筋疲力尽。

tire sb out  使某人疲惫不堪

（英文释义：to make sb/yourself feel very tired）

【例】The long drive had tired her out and she went to bed quite early.

开了很长时间车，让她感到精疲力尽，她很早就上床睡觉了。

【拓展】tire of sth/doing sth  对某事感到厌倦

【例】He never tires of playing games on his computer.

他从不会对玩电脑游戏感到厌倦。

课后练习

• The phenomena described by Jeremy Grantham may lead to ____.

  A. a cost-effective transition to renewables

  B. a decrease in the demand for fossil fuels

  C. higher risks of financial investments

  D. a series of inflation shocks

• The new economic reality causes investors to ____.

  A. explore new portfolio-management strategies

  B. increase the proportion of bonds in their portfolio

  C. hedge against risks by investing in cryptocurrencies

  D. put emphasis on long-term returns of investments

• According to the author, one of the assets to invest could be ____.

  A. private equity

  B. stocks of promising firms

  C. commodities

  D. illiquid assets

• The last paragraph shows that it will be ____ for investors to get high returns.

  A. impractical

  B. risky

  C. challenging

  D. effortless