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经济学中的心理学
- Authors
于今年3月27日去世的丹尼尔·卡尼曼则在他最著名的作品中穿插了各种人物角色和复杂难题。
双语精读
Winners of the Nobel prize in economics tend to sprinkle their papers with equations. Daniel Kahneman, who died on March 27th, populated his best-known work with characters and conundrums.
诺贝尔经济学奖得主往往会在论文中加入许多方程式。于今年3月27日去世的丹尼尔·卡尼曼则在他最著名的作品中穿插了各种人物角色和复杂难题。
Early readers encountered a schoolchild with an IQ of 150 in a city where the average was 100.
卡尼曼作品的早期读者遇到过一个智商为150、生活在平均智商为100的城市中的小学生。
Later they pondered the unfortunate Mr Tees, who arrived at the airport 30 minutes after his flight's scheduled departure, and must have felt even worse when he discovered the plane had left 25 minutes late.
之后，读者们思考了倒霉的蒂斯先生的情况，他到达机场的时间比航班预定起飞时间晚了30分钟，而当他发现飞机实际起飞时间晚了25分钟时，他肯定感觉更糟心了。
In the 1970s readers had to evaluate ways to fight a disease that threatened to kill 600 people. In 1983 they were asked to guess the job of Linda, an outspoken, single 31-year-old philosophy graduate.
在20世纪70年代，读者们不得不评估抗击疾病的各种方法，这种疾病可能导致600人死亡。1983年，读者们被要求猜一猜测琳达做什么工作，琳达是一位31岁、性格直率、单身的哲学专业毕业生。
Kahneman used such vignettes to expose the seductive mental shortcuts that can warp people's thoughts and decisions. Many people, for example, think it more likely that Linda is a feminist bank-teller than a bank-teller of any kind.
卡尼曼用这样的小故事揭露了那些诱人前往，但也可能会扭曲人们的想法和决定的心理捷径。例如，许多人认为琳达更有可能是一名女权主义银行出纳员，而不是其他任意类型的银行出纳员。
Presented with two responses to the disease, most choose one that saves 200 people for certain, over a chancier alternative that has a one-third chance of saving everyone and a two-thirds chance of saving no one.
当有两种应对疾病的方法摆在面前时，大多数人选择了肯定可以拯救200人的方法，而不是风险更大的另一种方法，这种方法有三分之一的概率可以拯救所有人，三分之二的概率无法拯救任何人。
But if the choice is reframed, the decision is often different. Choose the first option, after all, and 400 people die for sure. Choose the second and nobody dies with a one-third probability.
但如果把两种选择换个说法，人们的决定往往会有所不同。毕竟，选择第一种，肯定会有400人死亡。选择第二种，有三分之一的概率没有人会死亡。
Teasing questions came easily to Kahneman, even in his sleep, according to "The Undoing Project", a book by Michael Lewis.
根据迈克尔·刘易斯的书《思维的发现》，一些引人思考的问题很容易出现在卡尼曼的头脑中，即使在他睡觉的时候。
Some sprang from his teaching, which was not confined to ivory towers. He once explained the idea of "regression to the mean" to flight instructors in Israel's air force.
一些问题源自他的教学，并不局限于象牙塔。他曾向以色列空军的飞行教官解释过“回归均值”概念。
The reason pilots tended to improve after a sloppy manoeuvre was not because the instructor screamed at them, but because the chances of an improvement are higher if the prior performance was unusually bad.
飞行员在一次马虎操作之后往往会表现进步，这不是因为教官大声训斥了他们，而是因为如果之前的表现异常糟糕，那么进步的概率就会更高。
One of his early hit papers exposed the kind of methodological muddles to which he himself was vulnerable, such as the misplaced confidence that an outlier, like a child with an IQ of 150, would not skew even a small sample.
他早期的一篇著名论文揭示了他自己也很容易犯的一种方法论谬误，比如错误地相信一个异常数据，比如（前面提到的）智商为150的孩子，不会影响哪怕是小样本的准确性。
Kahneman also had a lifelong-and life-preserving-interest in gossip. His childhood, as the son of Lithuanian Jews living a comfortable but edgy pre-war existence in Paris, was full of talk about other people, he once wrote.
卡尼曼对八卦有一种贯穿生命始终——而且保护生命安全——的兴趣。他曾写道，作为立陶宛犹太人的儿子，他在二战前的巴黎过着舒适但令人紧张不安的生活，他的童年充满了关于其他人的议论。
Jews in Europe had to "assess others, all the time," a friend of his told Mr Lewis. "Who is dangerous? Who is not dangerous?…People were basically dependent on their psychological judgment."
卡尼曼的一位朋友告诉刘易斯，在欧洲的犹太人必须“时时刻刻对他人进行估量”。“谁很危险？谁不危险？...…人们基本上依赖着自己对他人的心理判断而生活。”
词汇预习
gossip [高考]
美[ˈɡɑːsɪp] | 英[ˈɡɒsɪp]
n. 流言蜚语；爱说长道短的人；闲话 vi. 散播(流言蜚语)
option [高考]
美[ˈɑːpʃn] | 英[ˈɒpʃn]
n. 选项；选择；选择权；可选择的事物 v. 购买（或出售）…的选择权
psychological [高考]
美[ˌsaɪkəˈlɑːdʒɪkl] | 英[ˌsaɪkəˈlɒdʒɪkl]
adj. 心理(学)的
sample [高考]
美[ˈsæmpl] | 英[ˈsɑːmpl]
vt. 取样；尝试；抽样检查 n. 样品；样本；例子 adj. 试样的，样品的；作为例子的
saving [高考]
美[ˈseɪvɪŋ] | 英[ˈseɪvɪŋ]
n. 节约； 挽救 prep. 除 ... 之外 conj. 除了； 除去
dependent [高考]
美[dɪˈpendənt] | 英[dɪˈpendənt]
adj. 依靠的；依赖的；从属的 n. 依赖他人者；受赡养者
philosophy [高考]
美[fəˈlɑːsəfi] | 英[fəˈlɒsəfi]
n. 哲学；哲理
basically [高考]
美[ˈbeɪsɪkli] | 英[ˈbeɪsɪkli]
adv. 基本上；主要地
lifelong [高考]
美[ˈlaɪflɔŋ] | 英[ˈlaɪflɒŋ]
adj. 终身的；毕生的
prior [高考]
美[ˈpraɪər] | 英[ˈpraɪə(r)]
adj. 优先的；在前的；更重要的 adv. 居先；在前
vulnerable [高考]
美[ˈvʌlnərəbl] | 英[ˈvʌlnərəbl]
adj. 易受伤害的；有弱点的；脆弱的
probability [高考]
美[ˌprɑːbəˈbɪləti] | 英[ˌprɒbəˈbɪləti]
n. 可能性；【数】或然率；机率；【统计】概率，概率论
mental [高考]
美[ˈmentl] | 英[ˈmentl]
adj. 思想的；心理的；精神的；脑力的 n. 精神病患者
alternative [高考]
美[ɔːlˈtɜːrnətɪv] | 英[ɔːlˈtɜːnətɪv]
adj. 两者择一的；供选择的；非主流的 n. 二者择一；供替代的选择
evaluate [高考]
美[ɪˈvæljueɪt] | 英[ɪˈvæljueɪt]
vt. 评价；评估
expose [高考]
美[ɪkˈspoʊz] | 英[ɪkˈspəʊz]
vt. 揭露；使曝光；使面临；使暴露
assess [高考]
美[əˈses] | 英[əˈses]
v. 评定；评估；估算
judgment [高考]
美['dʒʌdʒmənt] | 英['dʒʌdʒmənt]
n. 裁判；判断；判断力；意见；判决书
existence [高考]
美[ɪɡˈzɪstəns] | 英[ɪɡˈzɪstəns]
n. 存在；生存
departure [高考]
美[dɪˈpɑːrtʃər] | 英[dɪˈpɑːtʃə(r)]
n. 出发；离开；分歧；新的尝试
unfortunate [高考]
美[ʌnˈfɔːrtʃənət] | 英[ʌnˈfɔːtʃənət]
adj. 不幸的；令人遗憾的 n. 不幸的人
outspoken [高考]
美[aʊtˈspoʊkən] | 英[aʊtˈspəʊkən]
adj. 直言无讳的；坦率的
for sure [高考]
美[fɔːr ʃʊr] | 英[fɔː ʃʊə]
确定； 肯定
dependent on [高考]
美 | 英
取决于, 依赖
for certain [高考]
美[fɔːr 'sɜːrtn] | 英[fɔː 'sɜːtn]
肯定地； 确凿地； 无疑地
living [高考]
美[ˈlɪvɪŋ] | 英[ˈlɪvɪŋ]
adj. 活着的；生动的 n. 生活；生计
ivory [高考]
美[ˈaɪvəri] | 英[ˈaɪvəri]
n. 象牙；乳白色；长牙 adj. 乳白色的；象牙制的 n. (Ivory)人名；(英)艾沃里
where [高考]
美[wer] | 英[weə(r)]
adv. 在哪里；在那个地方 conj. 在 ... 地方
would [高考]
美[wʊd , wəd] | 英[wʊd , wəd]
aux. 将；可能；大概；总会；愿意；will的过去式
unusually [四级]
美[ʌnˈjuʒʊəlɪ] | 英[ʌnˈju:ʒuəli]
adv. 异乎寻常地；显著地；非常
sprinkle [四级]
美[ˈsprɪŋkl] | 英[ˈsprɪŋkl]
v. 洒；撒；下稀疏小雨 n. 少量散布的屑状物
full of [四级]
美[fʊl ʌv] | 英[ful ɔv]
充满 ...
die for [四级]
美[daɪ fɔr] | 英[dai fɔ:]
为了 ... 而死； 渴望
economics [四级]
美[ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪks , ˌekəˈnɑːmɪks] | 英[ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks , ˌekəˈnɒmɪks]
n. 经济学
feminist [六级]
美[ˈfemənɪst] | 英[ˈfemənɪst]
n. 女权主义者 adj. 主张男女平等的；女权主义的
kind of [六级]
美[kaɪnd ʌv] | 英[kaind ɔv]
adv. 有点儿
scheduled [专四]
美['skedʒəld] | 英['ʃedju:ld]
adj. 预定的；预先安排的
according [专四]
美[ə'kɔrdɪŋ] | 英[ə'kɔːdɪŋ]
adj. 相符的；相应的；一致的 v. 给予；符合，一致；正式协议（accord的现在分词）
felt [专八]
美[fɛlt] | 英[felt]
n. 毛毡；毡制品 vt. 制毡；使粘结 vi. 毡合
seductive [专八]
美[sɪˈdʌktɪv] | 英[sɪˈdʌktɪv]
adj. 诱惑的；引人注意的；有魅力的
teller [专八]
美[ˈtɛlɚ] | 英[ˈtelə(r)]
n. 出纳员；叙述者；计票人
edgy [专八]
美[ˈɛdʒi] | 英[ˈedʒi]
adj. 急躁的；尖利的；刀口锐利的
warp [专八]
美[wɔrp] | 英[wɔ:p]
vt. 使翘起；弄歪；歪曲 vi. 变歪；扭曲 n. 弯曲；歪曲；乖僻；经纱；绞船索
manoeuvre [专八]
美[məˈnuːvər] | 英[məˈnuːvə(r)]
n. 调动；策略 v. （军队的）调遣；(驱车)移动；操纵；策划
best-known [考研]
美['bestn'oʊn] | 英['bestn'əʊn]
流传久远的
重点讲解
Winners of the Nobel prize in economics tend to sprinkle their papers with equations. Daniel Kahneman, who died on March 27th, populated his best-known work with characters and conundrums.
诺贝尔经济学奖得主往往会在论文中加入许多方程式。于今年3月27日去世的丹尼尔·卡尼曼则在他最著名的作品中穿插了各种人物角色和复杂难题。
populate v. 构成人口；占据位置
【例】The island was populated by Europeans.
Europeans populate the island.
这个岛上住着欧洲人。
【搭配】populate sth with... 让某物充满……
【近义词】pepper/sprinkle sth with... 在某物中加入……
Early readers encountered a schoolchild with an IQ of 150 in a city where the average was 100.
卡尼曼作品的早期读者遇到过一个智商为150、生活在平均智商为100的城市中的小学生。
outspoken adj. 直率的；心直口快的
【例】He was outspoken about political issues.
他对政治问题很直言不讳。
【近义词】candid/open/frank adj. 直率的
blunt/direct adj. 耿直的；直接的
【拓展】speak out against 公开反对；大胆抨击
Later they pondered the unfortunate Mr Tees, who arrived at the airport 30 minutes after his flight’s scheduled departure, and must have felt even worse when he discovered the plane had left 25 minutes late.
之后，读者们思考了倒霉的蒂斯先生的情况，他到达机场的时间比航班预定起飞时间晚了30分钟，而当他发现飞机实际起飞时间晚了25分钟时，他肯定感觉更糟心了。
outspoken adj. 直率的；心直口快的
【例】He was outspoken about political issues.
他对政治问题很直言不讳。
【近义词】candid/open/frank adj. 直率的
blunt/direct adj. 耿直的；直接的
【拓展】speak out against 公开反对；大胆抨击
In the 1970s readers had to evaluate ways to fight a disease that threatened to kill 600 people. In 1983 they were asked to guess the job of Linda, an outspoken, single 31-year-old philosophy graduate.
在20世纪70年代，读者们不得不评估抗击疾病的各种方法，这种疾病可能导致600人死亡。1983年，读者们被要求猜一猜测琳达做什么工作，琳达是一位31岁、性格直率、单身的哲学专业毕业生。
outspoken adj. 直率的；心直口快的
【例】He was outspoken about political issues.
他对政治问题很直言不讳。
【近义词】candid/open/frank adj. 直率的
blunt/direct adj. 耿直的；直接的
【拓展】speak out against 公开反对；大胆抨击
Kahneman used such vignettes to expose the seductive mental shortcuts that can warp people’s thoughts and decisions. Many people, for example, think it more likely that Linda is a feminist bank-teller than a bank-teller of any kind.
卡尼曼用这样的小故事揭露了那些诱人前往，但也可能会扭曲人们的想法和决定的心理捷径。例如，许多人认为琳达更有可能是一名女权主义银行出纳员，而不是其他任意类型的银行出纳员。
shortcut n. 捷径；近路
【例】There is no shortcut to success.
成功没有捷径。
【反义词】detour n. 远路；绕道
warp v. 扭曲；使出错
【例】The dampness warped the floorboards.
潮湿使地板翘起来了。
His judgement was warped by prejudice.
他因偏见而判断有误。
time warp 时空扭曲
【近义词】bend/distort v. 弯曲/扭曲
Presented with two responses to the disease, most choose one that saves 200 people for certain, over a chancier alternative that has a one-third chance of saving everyone and a two-thirds chance of saving no one.
当有两种应对疾病的方法摆在面前时，大多数人选择了肯定可以拯救200人的方法，而不是风险更大的另一种方法，这种方法有三分之一的概率可以拯救所有人，三分之二的概率无法拯救任何人。
present sb with sth 给某人提交/呈现某物
【例】presented him with a medal 给他发了一枚奖章
present him with a question/challenge 向他提问/让他面临挑战
over prep. 优先于
【例】have an advantage over other people
比其他人有优势
vote for A over B 给A而不是B投票
reframe v. 用不同的方式表达
【例】to reframe failure as a learning opportunity
把失败换一个说法，即失败是一个学习的机会
【拓展】frame v. 以某种方式表达
formulate v. 准确地表达
But if the choice is reframed, the decision is often different. Choose the first option, after all, and 400 people die for sure. Choose the second and nobody dies with a one-third probability.
但如果把两种选择换个说法，人们的决定往往会有所不同。毕竟，选择第一种，肯定会有400人死亡。选择第二种，有三分之一的概率没有人会死亡。
present sb with sth 给某人提交/呈现某物
【例】presented him with a medal 给他发了一枚奖章
present him with a question/challenge 向他提问/让他面临挑战
over prep. 优先于
【例】have an advantage over other people
比其他人有优势
vote for A over B 给A而不是B投票
reframe v. 用不同的方式表达
【例】to reframe failure as a learning opportunity
把失败换一个说法，即失败是一个学习的机会
【拓展】frame v. 以某种方式表达
formulate v. 准确地表达
Teasing questions came easily to Kahneman, even in his sleep, according to “The Undoing Project”, a book by Michael Lewis.
根据迈克尔·刘易斯的书《思维的发现》，一些引人思考的问题很容易出现在卡尼曼的头脑中，即使在他睡觉的时候。
teasing adj. 逗弄的；引发思考的；让人好奇的
【例】I threw in a teasing question to stimulate discussion.
我问了一个有意思的问题来引发大家讨论。
【拓展】brainteaser n. 脑筋急转弯；测试头脑灵活性的问题
mean n. 平均数；中间值
【例】6 is the mean of 3, 7, and 8.
6是3、7、8三个数的平均数。
【搭配】the happy mean 最合适的折衷；中庸之道
【例】Eight hours is a happy mean between too much sleep and too little.
8小时睡眠不算太多也不算太少, 正合适。
Some sprang from his teaching, which was not confined to ivory towers. He once explained the idea of “regression to the mean” to flight instructors in Israel’s air force.
一些问题源自他的教学，并不局限于象牙塔。他曾向以色列空军的飞行教官解释过“回归均值”概念。
teasing adj. 逗弄的；引发思考的；让人好奇的
【例】I threw in a teasing question to stimulate discussion.
我问了一个有意思的问题来引发大家讨论。
【拓展】brainteaser n. 脑筋急转弯；测试头脑灵活性的问题
mean n. 平均数；中间值
【例】6 is the mean of 3, 7, and 8.
6是3、7、8三个数的平均数。
【搭配】the happy mean 最合适的折衷；中庸之道
【例】Eight hours is a happy mean between too much sleep and too little.
8小时睡眠不算太多也不算太少, 正合适。
The reason pilots tended to improve after a sloppy manoeuvre was not because the instructor screamed at them, but because the chances of an improvement are higher if the prior performance was unusually bad.
飞行员在一次马虎操作之后往往会表现进步，这不是因为教官大声训斥了他们，而是因为如果之前的表现异常糟糕，那么进步的概率就会更高。
manoeuvre n. 特定动作
【例】perform all the manoeuvres required by the driving test
完成驾驶员考试的全部规定动作
area for manoeuvre 可操作空间
【辨析】manipulate v. 操纵
【近义词】operate v. 操作（使机器运行）
One of his early hit papers exposed the kind of methodological muddles to which he himself was vulnerable, such as the misplaced confidence that an outlier, like a child with an IQ of 150, would not skew even a small sample.
他早期的一篇著名论文揭示了他自己也很容易犯的一种方法论谬误，比如错误地相信一个异常数据，比如（前面提到的）智商为150的孩子，不会影响哪怕是小样本的准确性。
manoeuvre n. 特定动作
【例】perform all the manoeuvres required by the driving test
完成驾驶员考试的全部规定动作
area for manoeuvre 可操作空间
【辨析】manipulate v. 操纵
【近义词】operate v. 操作（使机器运行）
Kahneman also had a lifelong—and life-preserving—interest in gossip. His childhood, as the son of Lithuanian Jews living a comfortable but edgy pre-war existence in Paris, was full of talk about other people, he once wrote.
卡尼曼对八卦有一种贯穿生命始终——而且保护生命安全——的兴趣。他曾写道，作为立陶宛犹太人的儿子，他在二战前的巴黎过着舒适但令人紧张不安的生活，他的童年充满了关于其他人的议论。
edgy adj. 紧张的；烦躁的
【例】She’s been edgy lately, waiting for the test results.
她最近在等考试成绩，心情很紧张。
【近义词】nervous adj. 紧张的
Jews in Europe had to “assess others, all the time,” a friend of his told Mr Lewis. “Who is dangerous? Who is not dangerous?…People were basically dependent on their psychological judgment.”
卡尼曼的一位朋友告诉刘易斯，在欧洲的犹太人必须“时时刻刻对他人进行估量”。“谁很危险？谁不危险？...…人们基本上依赖着自己对他人的心理判断而生活。”
edgy adj. 紧张的；烦躁的
【例】She’s been edgy lately, waiting for the test results.
她最近在等考试成绩，心情很紧张。
【近义词】nervous adj. 紧张的
课后练习
One of the characteristics of Daniel Kahneman's work is that ____.
A. he used mathematical equations extensively in his papers.
B. he was good at incorporating interesting stories into his research
C. he proposed solutions to many complicated questions
D. he invited readers to think about the questions in his books
What was the purpose of Daniel Kahneman using vignettes in his work?
A. To arouse readers’ curiosity about complex economic theories.
B. To provide solid evidence of his economic theories.
C. To explore the impact of mental factors on decision making.
D. To apply economic conceptions to everyday life.
What does the story about the two responses to a disease illustrate?
A. People tend to neglect the probability of negative outcomes.
B. Accuracy is important in the life-and-death decision making.
C. People's preferences can shift based on the description of the options.
D. The number of people at risk does not change people's decision-making strategies.
Where did Daniel Kahneman's interest in gossip originate?
A. His academic research in psychology.
B. His lack of security as a Jew in Europe.
C. His interactions with a diverse group of people.
D. His philosophical inquiries into human nature.