狼来了：生成式人工智能还未消灭工作岗位

人工智能取得惊人突破后，许多人担心他们最终会因没有经济价值而被抛弃。最近几个月，"我的工作安全吗？"在谷歌全球的搜索量翻了一番，因为人们担心他们会被大型语言模型取代。

双语精读

Boy cries wolf: Generative AI is not yet killing jobs

狼来了：生成式人工智能还没有消灭就业岗位

After astonishing breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, many people worry that they will end up on the economic scrapheap. Global Google searches for "is my job safe?" have doubled in recent months, as people fear that they will be replaced with large language models (LLMs).

人工智能取得惊人突破后，许多人担心他们最终会因没有经济价值而被抛弃。最近几个月，"我的工作安全吗？"在谷歌全球的搜索量翻了一番，因为人们担心他们会被大型语言模型取代。

Some evidence suggests that widespread disruption is coming. In a recent paper Tyna Eloundou of OpenAI and colleagues say that "around 80% of the US workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs".

一些证据表明，大范围的颠覆即将到来。在最近的一篇论文中，OpenAI公司的泰娜·埃伦杜及其同事们称，"大约80%的美国劳动者可能有至少10%的工作任务会受到大型语言模型的影响"。

Another paper suggests that legal services, accountancy and travel agencies will face unprecedented upheaval.

另一篇论文认为，法律服务、会计行业和旅行社将面临前所未有的剧变。

Economists, however, tend to enjoy making predictions about automation more than they enjoy testing them. In the early 2010s many of them loudly predicted that robots would kill jobs by the millions, only to fall silent when employment rates across the rich world rose to all-time highs.

然而，经济学家往往更喜欢对自动化做出预测，而不是检验他们的预测。在2010年代初，许多经济学家放言预测，机器人将消灭数百万个工作岗位，但当富裕世界的就业率升至历史最高水平时，他们中的许多人却沉默了。

Few of the doom-mongers have a good explanation for why countries with the highest rates of tech usage around the globe, such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea, consistently have among the lowest rates of unemployment.

很少有末日论者能很好地解释，为什么日本、新加坡和韩国等全球科技使用率最高的国家，失业率却一直最低。

Here we introduce our first attempt at tracking AI's impact on jobs. Using American data on employment by occupation, we single out white-collar workers. These include people working in everything from back-office support and financial operations to copy-writers.

在这里，要介绍一下我们第一次跟踪人工智能对就业影响的尝试。利用美国按职业划分的就业数据，我们把白领单独挑了出来。这些人做着从后勤支持和财务运营到广告文案撰写的各种工作。

White-collar roles are thought to be especially vulnerable to generative AI, which is becoming ever better at logical reasoning and creativity.

白领被认为尤其容易受到生成式人工智能的影响，这种人工智能在逻辑推理和创造力方面正变得越来越强。

However, there is as yet little evidence of an AI hit to employment. In the spring of 2020 white-collar jobs rose as a share of the total, as many people in service occupations lost their job at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

然而，到目前为止，几乎没有证据表明人工智能对就业造成了打击。2020年春季，白领工作占总就业岗位的比例有所上升，因为在新冠肺炎疫情暴发之初，许多从事服务业的人失去了工作。

The white-collar share is lower today, as leisure and hospitality have recovered. Yet in the past year the share of employment in professions supposedly at risk from generative AI has risen by half a percentage point.

如今，随着休闲和酒店业的复苏，白领工作的比例有所下降。然而，在过去的一年里，那些据说有可能受到生成式人工智能威胁的职业的就业比例上升了0.5个百分点。

It is, of course, early days. Few firms yet use generative-AI tools at scale, so the impact on jobs could merely be delayed.

当然，现在还只是人工智能发展的初期。到目前为止，还没有几家公司大规模使用生成式人工智能工具，因此人工智能对就业的影响可能只是推迟了。

Another possibility, however, is that these new technologies will end up destroying only a small number of roles. While AI may be efficient at some tasks, it may be less good at others, such as management and working out what others need.

然而，另一种可能性是，这些新技术最终只会摧毁一小部分工作。虽然人工智能在某些任务上可能很高效，但在其他方面可能不太擅长，比如管理和弄明白他人需要什么。

AI could even have a positive effect on jobs. If workers using it become more efficient, profits at their company could rise which would then allow bosses to ramp up hiring.

人工智能甚至可能对就业产生积极影响。如果使用人工智能的员工变得更有效率，那么公司的利润可能会上升，这将使老板能够增加招聘。

A recent survey by Experis, an IT-recruitment firm, points to this possibility. More than half of Britain's employers expect AI technologies to have a positive impact on their headcount over the next two years, it finds.

IT行业招聘公司Experis最近的一项调查指出了这种可能性。该调查发现，超过一半的英国雇主预计人工智能技术将在未来两年对他们的员工人数产生积极影响。

To see how it all shakes out, we will publish updates to this analysis every few months. But for now, a jobs apocalypse seems a way off.

为了看看结果如何，我们将每隔几个月发布一次更新的分析结果。但就目前而言，就业末日似乎还遥遥无期。

词汇预习

• economic [高考]

  美[ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk] | 英[ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪk]

  adj. 经济的，经济学的；有利可图的；节约的

• financial [高考]

  美[faɪˈnænʃl] | 英[faɪˈnænʃl]

  adj. 金融的；财政的；[非正式]有钱的

• impact [高考]

  美[ˈɪmpækt , ɪmˈpækt] | 英[ˈɪmpækt , ɪmˈpækt]

  n. 影响；冲击力；撞击 vt. 挤入；压紧；撞击；对 ... 发生影响 vi. 冲击；撞击；产生影响

• efficient [高考]

  美[ɪˈfɪʃnt] | 英[ɪˈfɪʃnt]

  adj. 效率高的；胜任的

• employment [高考]

  美[ɪmˈplɔɪmənt] | 英[ɪmˈplɔɪmənt]

  n. 职业；雇用；使用

• scale [高考]

  美[skeɪl] | 英[skeɪl]

  n. 等级，规模；刻度；音阶；量程；天枰 v. 攀登；到达…顶点；去鳞

• consistently [高考]

  美[kənˈsɪstəntlɪ] | 英[kən'sɪstəntlɪ]

  adv. 一贯地，始终；一致地

• usage [高考]

  美[ˈjuːsɪdʒ] | 英[ˈjuːsɪdʒ]

  n. 使用；用法；惯例；惯用法；利用度，使用度

• leisure [高考]

  美[ˈliːʒər] | 英[ˈleʒə(r)]

  n. 闲暇；休闲

• logical [高考]

  美[ˈlɑːdʒɪkl] | 英[ˈlɒdʒɪkl]

  adj. 符合逻辑的；逻辑上的；合理的

• vulnerable [高考]

  美[ˈvʌlnərəbl] | 英[ˈvʌlnərəbl]

  adj. 易受伤害的；有弱点的；脆弱的

• workforce [高考]

  美[ˈwɜːrkfɔːrs] | 英[ˈwɜːkfɔːs]

  n. 劳动力；工人总数；职工总数

• data [高考]

  美[ˈdeɪtə] | 英[ˈdeɪtə]

  n. 数据；资料

• evidence [高考]

  美[ˈevɪdəns] | 英[ˈevɪdəns]

  n. 证据；证词；根据；迹象 v. 证明；证实

• possibility [高考]

  美[ˌpɑːsəˈbɪləti] | 英[ˌpɒsəˈbɪləti]

  n. 可能；可能性；可能的事情；潜在的价值

• explanation [高考]

  美[ˌekspləˈneɪʃn] | 英[ˌekspləˈneɪʃn]

  n. 解释；说明

• merely [高考]

  美[ˈmɪrli] | 英[ˈmɪəli]

  adv. 仅仅；只不过

• intelligence [高考]

  美[ɪnˈtelɪdʒəns] | 英[ɪnˈtelɪdʒəns]

  n. 智力；智慧；才智；（尤指关于敌国的）情报

• percentage [高考]

  美[pərˈsentɪdʒ] | 英[pəˈsentɪdʒ]

  n. 百分比，百分率；部分，比例；利润分成，提成；[非正式]利益，好处

• artificial [高考]

  美[ˌɑːrtɪˈfɪʃl] | 英[ˌɑːtɪˈfɪʃl]

  adj. 人造的；虚伪的；武断的

• analysis [高考]

  美[əˈnæləsɪs] | 英[əˈnæləsɪs]

  n. 分析；解析

• legal [高考]

  美[ˈliːɡl] | 英[ˈliːɡl]

  adj. 法定的；法律的；合法的

• occupation [高考]

  美[ˌɑːkjuˈpeɪʃn] | 英[ˌɒkjuˈpeɪʃn]

  n. 职业；占有；消遣；居住

• unemployment [高考]

  美[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt] | 英[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt]

  n. 失业；失业人数

• widespread [高考]

  美[ˈwaɪdspred] | 英[ˈwaɪdspred]

  adj. 分布(或散布)广的；普遍的

• collar [高考]

  美[ˈkɑːlər] | 英[ˈkɒlə(r)]

  n. 衣领；项圈；[机]轴环 vt. 抓住；为 ... 戴上项圈；为 ... 上领子

• impact on [高考]

  美[ˈɪmˌpækt ɑn] | 英[ˈimpækt ɔn]

  对 ... 产生影响

• lower [高考]

  美[ˈloʊər] | 英[ˈləʊə(r)]

  adj. 低的；下级的；下层的 v. 降低；减弱；跌落

• would [高考]

  美[wʊd , wəd] | 英[wʊd , wəd]

  aux. 将；可能；大概；总会；愿意；will的过去式

• automation [四级]

  美[ˌɔːtəˈmeɪʃn] | 英[ˌɔːtəˈmeɪʃn]

  n. 自动化

• tech [四级]

  美[tek] | 英[tek]

  n. 技术学校；技术；技术人员

• recruitment [四级]

  美[rɪˈkruːtmənt] | 英[rɪˈkruːtmənt]

  n. 征募新兵；补充；招聘

• supposedly [四级]

  美[səˈpoʊzɪdli] | 英[səˈpəʊzɪdli]

  adv. 推测地；大概

• doom [四级]

  美[duːm] | 英[duːm]

  n. 毁灭；厄运；判决；死亡 vt. 注定；判定

• hospitality [四级]

  美[ˌhɑːspɪˈtæləti] | 英[ˌhɒspɪˈtæləti]

  n. 款待；殷勤；好客；酒店管理

• good at [四级]

  美[ɡʊd æt] | 英[ɡʊd æt]

  善于； 擅长

• effect on [四级]

  美[ɪˈfɛkt ɑn] | 英[iˈfekt ɔn]

  对 ... 的作用

• single out [四级]

  美[ˈsɪŋɡl aʊt] | 英[ˈsɪŋɡl aʊt]

  挑选； 选拔

• explanation for [四级]

  美 | 英

  对...的解释

• as yet [四级]

  美[æz jɛt] | 英[æz jet]

  到目前为止； 迄今

• accountancy [四级]

  美[əˈkaʊntənsi] | 英[əˈkaʊntənsi]

  n. 会计工作；会计学

• unprecedented [六级]

  美[ʌnˈpresɪdentɪd] | 英[ʌnˈpresɪdentɪd]

  adj. 空前的；前所未有的

• white-collar [六级]

  美[ˌwaɪt ˈkɑːlər] | 英[ˌwaɪt ˈkɒlə(r)]

  adj. 白领阶层的

• disruption [考研]

  美[dɪsˈrʌpʃn] | 英[dɪsˈrʌpʃn]

  n. 分裂；破裂；毁坏

• generative [雅思]

  美[ˈdʒenərətɪv] | 英[ˈdʒenərətɪv]

  adj. 生殖的；生产的；有生殖力的

重点讲解

Boy cries wolf: Generative AI is not yet killing jobs

狼来了：生成式人工智能还没有消灭就业岗位

breakthrough n. & a.

1. 作名词：重大进展；突破

【例】to make/achieve a breakthrough 取得突破性进展

2. 作形容词：突破性的

【例】breakthrough technology/products 突破性技术／产品

【拓展】break through

1. 冲破；突破

【例】After hours of fierce fighting, rebels broke through and captured the capital.

经过数小时的激战，叛军突破防线，占领了首都。

2. （太阳）冲破（云层）

【例】The sun broke through at around lunch time.

大约午饭时分，太阳破云而出。

on the scrapheap 废弃的，被抛弃的（尤用于看起来不公平时）

（英文释义：no longer wanted or considered useful）

【例】Three years later he was on the political scrapheap.

三年后，他就被政坛抛弃。

【拓展】scrapheap n. 废物堆；废金属堆

After astonishing breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, many people worry that they will end up on the economic scrapheap. Global Google searches for "is my job safe?" have doubled in recent months, as people fear that they will be replaced with large language models (LLMs).

人工智能取得惊人突破后，许多人担心他们最终会因没有经济价值而被抛弃。最近几个月，"我的工作安全吗？"在谷歌全球的搜索量翻了一番，因为人们担心他们会被大型语言模型取代。

breakthrough n. & a.

1. 作名词：重大进展；突破

【例】to make/achieve a breakthrough 取得突破性进展

2. 作形容词：突破性的

【例】breakthrough technology/products 突破性技术／产品

【拓展】break through

1. 冲破；突破

【例】After hours of fierce fighting, rebels broke through and captured the capital.

经过数小时的激战，叛军突破防线，占领了首都。

2. （太阳）冲破（云层）

【例】The sun broke through at around lunch time.

大约午饭时分，太阳破云而出。

on the scrapheap 废弃的，被抛弃的（尤用于看起来不公平时）

（英文释义：no longer wanted or considered useful）

【例】Three years later he was on the political scrapheap.

三年后，他就被政坛抛弃。

【拓展】scrapheap n. 废物堆；废金属堆

Some evidence suggests that widespread disruption is coming. In a recent paper Tyna Eloundou of OpenAI and colleagues say that "around 80% of the US workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs".

一些证据表明，大范围的颠覆即将到来。在最近的一篇论文中，OpenAI公司的泰娜·埃伦杜及其同事们称，"大约80%的美国劳动者可能有至少10%的工作任务会受到大型语言模型的影响"。

unprecedented a. 前所未有的；空前的

【例】The situation is unprecedented in modern times.

这种情况在现代还没有出现过。

【拓展】precedent n.

1. 前例；先例

【例】There is no precedent for a disaster of this scale.

这种规模的灾难是空前的。

2. 传统；常规

【例】to break with precedent 打破常规

Another paper suggests that legal services, accountancy and travel agencies will face unprecedented upheaval.

另一篇论文认为，法律服务、会计行业和旅行社将面临前所未有的剧变。

unprecedented a. 前所未有的；空前的

【例】The situation is unprecedented in modern times.

这种情况在现代还没有出现过。

【拓展】precedent n.

1. 前例；先例

【例】There is no precedent for a disaster of this scale.

这种规模的灾难是空前的。

2. 传统；常规

【例】to break with precedent 打破常规

Economists, however, tend to enjoy making predictions about automation more than they enjoy testing them. In the early 2010s many of them loudly predicted that robots would kill jobs by the millions, only to fall silent when employment rates across the rich world rose to all-time highs.

然而，经济学家往往更喜欢对自动化做出预测，而不是检验他们的预测。在2010年代初，许多经济学家放言预测，机器人将消灭数百万个工作岗位，但当富裕世界的就业率升至历史最高水平时，他们中的许多人却沉默了。

only to 结果只是（用于表示结果令人失望或感到意外）

（英文释义：someone did something, with a disappointing or surprising result）

【例】I arrived only to find that the others had already left.

我到了之后却发现别人都已走了。

all-time a. 空前的，创纪录的

【例】Unemployment reached an all-time record of 3 million.

失业人数高达 300 万的创纪录数字。

Few of the doom-mongers have a good explanation for why countries with the highest rates of tech usage around the globe, such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea, consistently have among the lowest rates of unemployment.

很少有末日论者能很好地解释，为什么日本、新加坡和韩国等全球科技使用率最高的国家，失业率却一直最低。

-monger suffix   商人，贩子

【例】a fishmonger 鱼贩子

【拓展】rumourmonger/gloom-monger/doom-monger

传播谣言的人/散布悲观论调的人/散布末日论的人

【例】The rumourmongers have been busy again.

喜欢造谣的人又在忙了。

Here we introduce our first attempt at tracking AI's impact on jobs. Using American data on employment by occupation, we single out white-collar workers. These include people working in everything from back-office support and financial operations to copy-writers.

在这里，要介绍一下我们第一次跟踪人工智能对就业影响的尝试。利用美国按职业划分的就业数据，我们把白领单独挑了出来。这些人做着从后勤支持和财务运营到广告文案撰写的各种工作。

impact n. & v.

1. 作名词

（1）巨大影响；强大作用

【例】Her speech made a profound impact on everyone.

她的讲话对每个人都有深远的影响。

（2）撞击；冲撞

【例】The impact of the blow knocked Jack off balance.

这一记猛击把杰克打了个趔趄。

2. 作动词：（对某事物）有影响，有作用

【例】Her father's death impacted greatly on her childhood years.

父亲去世对她的童年造成巨大影响。

occupation n.

1. 工作；职业

【例】Please state your name, address and occupation.

请写明你的姓名、地址和职业。

2. 消遣；业余活动

【例】Her main occupation seems to be shopping.

逛商店购物似乎是她的主要消遣。

3. 占领；居住，占用

【例】The offices will be ready for occupation in June.

办公室将于六月交付使用。

White-collar roles are thought to be especially vulnerable to generative AI, which is becoming ever better at logical reasoning and creativity.

白领被认为尤其容易受到生成式人工智能的影响，这种人工智能在逻辑推理和创造力方面正变得越来越强。

impact n. & v.

1. 作名词

（1）巨大影响；强大作用

【例】Her speech made a profound impact on everyone.

她的讲话对每个人都有深远的影响。

（2）撞击；冲撞

【例】The impact of the blow knocked Jack off balance.

这一记猛击把杰克打了个趔趄。

2. 作动词：（对某事物）有影响，有作用

【例】Her father's death impacted greatly on her childhood years.

父亲去世对她的童年造成巨大影响。

occupation n.

1. 工作；职业

【例】Please state your name, address and occupation.

请写明你的姓名、地址和职业。

2. 消遣；业余活动

【例】Her main occupation seems to be shopping.

逛商店购物似乎是她的主要消遣。

3. 占领；居住，占用

【例】The offices will be ready for occupation in June.

办公室将于六月交付使用。

However, there is as yet little evidence of an AI hit to employment. In the spring of 2020 white-collar jobs rose as a share of the total, as many people in service occupations lost their job at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

然而，到目前为止，几乎没有证据表明人工智能对就业造成了打击。2020年春季，白领工作占总就业岗位的比例有所上升，因为在新冠肺炎疫情暴发之初，许多从事服务业的人失去了工作。

as yet 到现在为止（尚未）

【例】We’ve had no word from Colin as yet.

我们到现在为止也没得到来自科林的任何消息。

【拓展】have yet to do something 尚未做某事（认为该做而未做）

【例】The bank has yet to respond to our letter.

银行尚未给我们回信。

share   v. & n.

1. 作动词

（1）共享，分享

【例】The three of us shared a taxi.

我们三个人合乘一辆计程车。

（2）共同拥有（看法、经历）

【例】They shared a common interest in botany.

他们都对植物学感兴趣。

2. 作名词

（1）股份

【例】a fall in share prices

股票价格的跌落

（2）（某人拥有或应负担的）一份，比例

【例】Everyone must accept their share of the blame.

每个人都必须承担自己那份责任。

The white-collar share is lower today, as leisure and hospitality have recovered. Yet in the past year the share of employment in professions supposedly at risk from generative AI has risen by half a percentage point.

如今，随着休闲和酒店业的复苏，白领工作的比例有所下降。然而，在过去的一年里，那些据说有可能受到生成式人工智能威胁的职业的就业比例上升了0.5个百分点。

work out

1. 算出；弄清楚，解决

【例】I couldn't work out where the music was coming from.

我弄不清这音乐是从哪里传来的。

2. 成功地发展

【例】Things have worked out quite well for us.

事情的结果对我们很不错。

3. 锻炼身体；做运动

【例】I work out regularly to keep fit.

我经常做运动以保持健康。

It is, of course, early days. Few firms yet use generative-AI tools at scale, so the impact on jobs could merely be delayed.

当然，现在还只是人工智能发展的初期。到目前为止，还没有几家公司大规模使用生成式人工智能工具，因此人工智能对就业的影响可能只是推迟了。

work out

1. 算出；弄清楚，解决

【例】I couldn't work out where the music was coming from.

我弄不清这音乐是从哪里传来的。

2. 成功地发展

【例】Things have worked out quite well for us.

事情的结果对我们很不错。

3. 锻炼身体；做运动

【例】I work out regularly to keep fit.

我经常做运动以保持健康。

Another possibility, however, is that these new technologies will end up destroying only a small number of roles. While AI may be efficient at some tasks, it may be less good at others, such as management and working out what others need.

然而，另一种可能性是，这些新技术最终只会摧毁一小部分工作。虽然人工智能在某些任务上可能很高效，但在其他方面可能不太擅长，比如管理和弄明白他人需要什么。

work out

1. 算出；弄清楚，解决

【例】I couldn't work out where the music was coming from.

我弄不清这音乐是从哪里传来的。

2. 成功地发展

【例】Things have worked out quite well for us.

事情的结果对我们很不错。

3. 锻炼身体；做运动

【例】I work out regularly to keep fit.

我经常做运动以保持健康。

AI could even have a positive effect on jobs. If workers using it become more efficient, profits at their company could rise which would then allow bosses to ramp up hiring.

人工智能甚至可能对就业产生积极影响。如果使用人工智能的员工变得更有效率，那么公司的利润可能会上升，这将使老板能够增加招聘。

ramp up 提高，使增加

【例】Producers can quickly ramp up production.

厂商可以迅速增加产量。

headcount n. 职工总数；人数

【例】to do a headcount 统计人数

apocalypse n.

1. 世界毁灭

【例】Civilization is on the brink of apocalypse.

文明已濒临毁灭的边缘。

2. 大动乱；大灾变

【例】an environmental apocalypse 环境大灾变

A recent survey by Experis, an IT-recruitment firm, points to this possibility. More than half of Britain's employers expect AI technologies to have a positive impact on their headcount over the next two years, it finds.

IT行业招聘公司Experis最近的一项调查指出了这种可能性。该调查发现，超过一半的英国雇主预计人工智能技术将在未来两年对他们的员工人数产生积极影响。

ramp up 提高，使增加

【例】Producers can quickly ramp up production.

厂商可以迅速增加产量。

headcount n. 职工总数；人数

【例】to do a headcount 统计人数

apocalypse n.

1. 世界毁灭

【例】Civilization is on the brink of apocalypse.

文明已濒临毁灭的边缘。

2. 大动乱；大灾变

【例】an environmental apocalypse 环境大灾变

To see how it all shakes out, we will publish updates to this analysis every few months. But for now, a jobs apocalypse seems a way off.

为了看看结果如何，我们将每隔几个月发布一次更新的分析结果。但就目前而言，就业末日似乎还遥遥无期。

ramp up 提高，使增加

【例】Producers can quickly ramp up production.

厂商可以迅速增加产量。

headcount n. 职工总数；人数

【例】to do a headcount 统计人数

apocalypse n.

1. 世界毁灭

【例】Civilization is on the brink of apocalypse.

文明已濒临毁灭的边缘。

2. 大动乱；大灾变

【例】an environmental apocalypse 环境大灾变

课后练习

• In terms of artificial intelligence, people worry about ____.

  A. how to master new technological skills

  B. how to keep up with the trend of technology

  C. how to avoid being replaced by machines

  D. how to earn higher wages by using technology

• Economists’ predictions about automation show that ____.

  A. machines prove to deal a blow to employment

  B. technological breakthroughs bring an economic boom

  C. economic theories don’t work well in practice

  D. it is difficult to clarify the impact of machines on jobs

• According to the text, since the spring of 2020, white-collar jobs ____.

  A. have become more diverse

  B. have decreased in number

  C. have been threatened by service jobs

  D. have not suffered noticeable losses

• How may artificial intelligence influence employment?

  A. It may cause mass unemployment.

  B. It may create new jobs for people.

  C. It may enable employers to hire more.

  D. It may decrease people’s salaries.