- Published on
消费者更谨慎, 经济风险上升(Recession Risks Rise as Consumers Turn Cautious)
- Authors
经济得以在遭受疫情冲击后重新增长是因为一个独特的驱动力：消费者。
双语精读
Recession Risks Rise as Consumers Turn Cautious
消费者变得谨慎，使衰退风险增加
The economy's resurgence from the pandemic shock has had a singular driving force: the consumer.
经济得以在遭受疫情冲击后重新增长是因为一个独特的驱动力：消费者。
Flush with savings and buoyed by a sizzling labor market, Americans have spent exuberantly, on goods such as furniture and electronics and then on services including air travel and restaurant meals.
有充裕的储蓄，再加上劳动力市场火爆，美国人在家具和电子产品等商品上出手阔绰，然后又在飞机出行和餐馆就餐等服务上大肆花钱。
How long this spending will hold up has become a crucial question. Despite contortions in world markets, many economists are cautioning that there is no reason to panic - at least not yet.
这种消费能维持多久，已成为一个关键问题。尽管世界市场出现扭曲，但许多经济学家提醒，没有理由恐慌，至少现在还没有。
In July, there was a notable slowdown in hiring and a jump in the unemployment rate to its highest level since October 2021, but consumer spending has remained relatively robust.
7月份，招聘明显放缓，失业率跃升至2021年10月以来的最高水平，但消费者支出仍保持相对强劲。
Wages are rising, though at a slower rate, and job cuts are still low. "Overall, there isn't evidence of a retrenchment in consumer spending," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at the consulting firm EY-Parthenon.
工资正在上涨，虽然上涨速度有所放缓，裁员人数也仍然很少。“总体来说，没有证据表明消费者支出在缩减。”咨询公司安永-帕特农的首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科说。
The strength of spending helped power greater-than-expected economic growth in the spring. That could change if the labor market's slowdown accelerates.
强劲的支出在春季帮助推动经济超出预期地增长。如果劳动力市场放缓速度加快，这种情况可能会改变。
Already, some consumers, especially those with lower incomes, are feeling the dual pinch of higher prices and elevated interest rates that are weighing on their finances.
一些消费者，尤其是那些收入较低的消费者，已经感受到了物价上涨和利率上升的双重压力，这些压力正在加重他们的财务负担。
Credit card delinquencies are rising, and household debt has swelled. Pandemic-era savings have dwindled. In June, Americans saved just 3.4 percent of their after-tax income, compared with 4.8 percent a year earlier.
信用卡违约率正在上升，家庭债务也在膨胀。疫情时期的储蓄已经逐渐减少。6月份，美国人的储蓄仅占税后收入的3.4%，而一年前这一比例为4.8%。
On calls with investors and in boardrooms around the country, corporate executives are acknowledging that customers are no longer spending as freely as they used to. And they are bracing themselves for the slide to continue.
全国各地的公司高管在与投资者的电话会议和在董事会议上承认，消费者不再像过去那样随心所欲地花钱了。而且他们正在为消费持续下滑做好准备。
On Wednesday, Disney cited a "moderation of consumer demand" that "exceeded our previous expectations" for a newly challenging outlook at its theme parks, a key to its profitability.
周三，迪士尼表示，因为“消费者需求放缓超出了我们之前的预期”，所以其主题公园未来将面临新的挑战，而主题公园是其盈利能力的关键所在。
There is also apprehension among retailers, fast-food chains and packaged-goods makers.
零售商、快餐连锁店和包装商品制造商也对此感到担忧。
Chris Kempczinski, the chief executive of McDonald's, likewise noted last week that some lower-income consumers were "dropping out of the market, eating at home and finding other ways to economize."
麦当劳首席执行官克里斯·肯普辛斯基上周同样指出，一些低收入消费者“退出了市场，在家里吃饭，寻找其他省钱的方法”。
McDonald's, which reported a 1 percent decline in global same-store sales, a measure of year-over-year retail sales for companies, in the quarter that ended in June, has been trying to lure back consumers with a $5 value meal.
麦当劳报告称，在截至6月份的季度里，全球同店销售额下降了1%，这是衡量公司同比零售额的一项指标，因此麦当劳一直在试图用5美元的超值套餐来吸引消费者回归。
词汇预习
economic [高考]
美[ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk] | 英[ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪk]
adj. 经济的，经济学的；有利可图的；节约的
economy [高考]
美[ɪˈkɑːnəmi] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmi]
n. 经济；节约 adj. 经济的；廉价的
relatively [高考]
美[ˈrelətɪvli] | 英[ˈrelətɪvli]
adv. 相对地；比较地
executive [高考]
美[ɪɡˈzekjətɪv] | 英[ɪɡˈzekjətɪv]
adj. 行政的；决策的；经营的；[计算机]执行指令 n. 行政主管；行政部门；决策者
household [高考]
美[ˈhaʊshoʊld] | 英[ˈhaʊshəʊld]
n. 家庭；户 adj. 家庭的；家喻户晓的
corporate [高考]
美[ˈkɔːrpərət] | 英[ˈkɔːpərət]
adj. 法人的；公司的；社团的；共同的；全体的
economist [高考]
美[ɪˈkɑnəmɪst] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmɪst]
n. 经济学家；[古]节俭的人
demand [高考]
美[dɪˈmænd] | 英[dɪˈmɑːnd]
n. 要求；需求 v. 要求；查问；需要
growth [高考]
美[ɡroʊθ] | 英[ɡrəʊθ]
n. 【U】增长；生长；发展；种植 n. 【C】生长物；【医】瘤;赘生物
rate [高考]
美[reɪt] | 英[reɪt]
n. 比率；速度；价格；费用；等级 v. 认为；估价；定等级；值得；怒斥；责骂
decline [高考]
美[dɪˈklaɪn] | 英[dɪˈklaɪn]
v. 下降；减少；变弱；拒绝；倾斜 n. 减少，衰退
evidence [高考]
美[ˈevɪdəns] | 英[ˈevɪdəns]
n. 证据；证词；根据；迹象 v. 证明；证实
previous [高考]
美[ˈpriːviəs] | 英[ˈpriːviəs]
adj. 以前的；先于；在 ... 之前
panic [高考]
美[ˈpænɪk] | 英[ˈpænɪk]
n. 惊慌；恐慌 v. 使…惊慌；感到恐慌 adj. 恐慌的；惊慌的
chief [高考]
美[tʃiːf] | 英[tʃiːf]
adj. 主要的；首要的 n. 首领
debt [高考]
美[det] | 英[det]
n. 债务；恩情；负债状态；义务；罪
tax [高考]
美[tæks] | 英[tæks]
n. 税；负担 v. 斥责；课税；使 ... 负重荷
unemployment [高考]
美[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt] | 英[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt]
n. 失业；失业人数
hold up [高考]
美[ˈhoʊld ʌp] | 英[ˈhəʊld ʌp]
举起；支撑；阻挡；推迟；举...为例；抢劫
finding [高考]
美[ˈfaɪndɪŋ] | 英[ˈfaɪndɪŋ]
n. 调查(或研究)的结果；[律] 裁决
lower [高考]
美[ˈloʊər] | 英[ˈləʊə(r)]
adj. 低的；下级的；下层的 v. 降低；减弱；跌落
crucial [高考]
美[ˈkruːʃl] | 英[ˈkruːʃl]
adj. 决定性的；关键的
era [高考]
美[ˈɪrə] | 英[ˈɪərə]
n. 纪元；时代；年代
outlook [高考]
美[ˈaʊtlʊk] | 英[ˈaʊtlʊk]
n. 前景；观点；人生观；世界观 v. 瞪着看；瞧；以目光压倒(对方)；比…好看
challenging [高考]
美[ˈtʃælɪndʒɪŋ] | 英[ˈtʃælɪndʒɪŋ]
adj. 挑战性的；有吸引力的
likewise [四级]
美[ˈlaɪkwaɪz] | 英[ˈlaɪkwaɪz]
adv. 同样地；此外；（表示感觉相同）我也是
pinch [四级]
美[pɪntʃ] | 英[pɪntʃ]
n. 捏；少量；一撮；困苦；[俚]偷窃 v. 掐；夹痛；使困苦；[俚]偷窃；逮捕
retail [四级]
美[ˈriːteɪl , rɪˈteɪl] | 英[ˈriːteɪl , rɪˈteɪl]
n. 零售 vt. 零售；传述 adv. 以零售形式
fast-food [四级]
美['fɑst'fud] | 英['fɑ:st'fu:d]
n. 快餐 adj.（与）快餐（有关）的，供应快餐的
notable [四级]
美[ˈnoʊtəbl] | 英[ˈnəʊtəbl]
adj. 显著的；著名的 n. 名人
slowdown [四级]
美[ˈsloʊdaʊn] | 英[ˈsləʊdaʊn]
n. 降低速度；减速
decline in [四级]
美 | 英
在……方面的减少；下降
electronics [四级]
美[ɪˌlekˈtrɑːnɪks] | 英[ɪˌlekˈtrɒnɪks]
n. 电子学；电子器件
robust [六级]
美[roʊˈbʌst] | 英[rəʊˈbʌst]
adj. 强健的；稳固的；耐用的；粗野的；浓的
profitability [六级]
美[ˌprɑfɪtəˈbɪlətɪ] | 英[ˌprɒfɪtə'bɪlətɪ]
n. 收益性；盈利能力
out of [六级]
美[aʊt ʌv] | 英[aut ɔv]
prep. 离…一段距离；从…里；离开 ...；出于
dual [六级]
美[ˈduːəl] | 英[ˈdjuːəl]
adj. 双重的；成双的 n. 双数
lure [六级]
美[lʊr] | 英[lʊə(r)]
vt. 诱惑；吸引 n. 诱惑；吸引力；饵
economize [专四]
美[ɪˈkɑːnəmaɪz] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmaɪz]
v. 节约；节省；有效地利用
apprehension [专八]
美[ˌæprɪˈhɛnʃən] | 英[ˌæprɪˈhenʃn]
n. 理解；忧惧；逮捕；了解
trying [专八]
美[ˈtraɪɪŋ] | 英[ˈtraɪɪŋ]
adj. 难受的；令人厌烦的
noted [托福]
美[ˈnoʊtɪd] | 英[ˈnəʊtɪd]
adj. 著名的；有声望的
moderation [雅思]
美[ˌmɑdəˈreɪʃn] | 英[ˌmɒdəˈreɪʃn]
n. 缓和；适度；节制；计分审核制
retrenchment [雅思]
美[rɪˈtrentʃmənt] | 英[rɪˈtrentʃmənt]
n. 减少；删除
重点讲解
Recession Risks Rise as Consumers Turn Cautious
消费者变得谨慎，使衰退风险增加
resurgence n. 再次兴盛；复兴
【例】a business resurgence 生意复苏
a resurgence of protectionism 保护主义再次抬头
【拓展】surge v. 涌动；猛增
buoy v. 使漂浮；支撑；鼓舞
【例】Her positive attitude buoyed the team's spirits during difficult times.
她的积极心态在困难时期鼓舞了队员的精神。
【近义词】support/boost v. 支持；使增长
【拓展】buoyant adj. 看涨的；充满信心的
The economy’s resurgence from the pandemic shock has had a singular driving force: the consumer.
经济得以在遭受疫情冲击后重新增长是因为一个独特的驱动力：消费者。
resurgence n. 再次兴盛；复兴
【例】a business resurgence 生意复苏
a resurgence of protectionism 保护主义再次抬头
【拓展】surge v. 涌动；猛增
buoy v. 使漂浮；支撑；鼓舞
【例】Her positive attitude buoyed the team's spirits during difficult times.
她的积极心态在困难时期鼓舞了队员的精神。
【近义词】support/boost v. 支持；使增长
【拓展】buoyant adj. 看涨的；充满信心的
Flush with savings and buoyed by a sizzling labor market, Americans have spent exuberantly, on goods such as furniture and electronics and then on services including air travel and restaurant meals.
有充裕的储蓄，再加上劳动力市场火爆，美国人在家具和电子产品等商品上出手阔绰，然后又在飞机出行和餐馆就餐等服务上大肆花钱。
resurgence n. 再次兴盛；复兴
【例】a business resurgence 生意复苏
a resurgence of protectionism 保护主义再次抬头
【拓展】surge v. 涌动；猛增
buoy v. 使漂浮；支撑；鼓舞
【例】Her positive attitude buoyed the team's spirits during difficult times.
她的积极心态在困难时期鼓舞了队员的精神。
【近义词】support/boost v. 支持；使增长
【拓展】buoyant adj. 看涨的；充满信心的
How long this spending will hold up has become a crucial question. Despite contortions in world markets, many economists are cautioning that there is no reason to panic — at least not yet.
这种消费能维持多久，已成为一个关键问题。尽管世界市场出现扭曲，但许多经济学家提醒，没有理由恐慌，至少现在还没有。
contortion n. 扭曲；变形
【例】His face was a picture of contortion as he tried to lift the heavy weight.
他拼命把重物举起来的时候，脸都变了形。
【拓展】contort v. 扭曲；变形
【例】to contort the body 扭曲身体
【近义词】distort v. 歪曲；曲解
【例】to distort the fact 歪曲事实
In July, there was a notable slowdown in hiring and a jump in the unemployment rate to its highest level since October 2021, but consumer spending has remained relatively robust.
7月份，招聘明显放缓，失业率跃升至2021年10月以来的最高水平，但消费者支出仍保持相对强劲。
contortion n. 扭曲；变形
【例】His face was a picture of contortion as he tried to lift the heavy weight.
他拼命把重物举起来的时候，脸都变了形。
【拓展】contort v. 扭曲；变形
【例】to contort the body 扭曲身体
【近义词】distort v. 歪曲；曲解
【例】to distort the fact 歪曲事实
Wages are rising, though at a slower rate, and job cuts are still low. “Overall, there isn’t evidence of a retrenchment in consumer spending,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at the consulting firm EY-Parthenon.
工资正在上涨，虽然上涨速度有所放缓，裁员人数也仍然很少。“总体来说，没有证据表明消费者支出在缩减。”咨询公司安永-帕特农的首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科说。
retrenchment n. 紧缩；削减
【例】a retrenchment budget 削减费用的预算
【拓展】retrench v. 紧缩开支
【辨析】entrench v. 使根深蒂固；使牢固存在
accelerate v. 加速；变快
【例】to accelerate economic growth 加速经济发展
【近义词】speed up/expedite 加速
【反义词】decelerate v. 降速；变慢
The strength of spending helped power greater-than-expected economic growth in the spring. That could change if the labor market’s slowdown accelerates.
强劲的支出在春季帮助推动经济超出预期地增长。如果劳动力市场放缓速度加快，这种情况可能会改变。
retrenchment n. 紧缩；削减
【例】a retrenchment budget 削减费用的预算
【拓展】retrench v. 紧缩开支
【辨析】entrench v. 使根深蒂固；使牢固存在
accelerate v. 加速；变快
【例】to accelerate economic growth 加速经济发展
【近义词】speed up/expedite 加速
【反义词】decelerate v. 降速；变慢
Already, some consumers, especially those with lower incomes, are feeling the dual pinch of higher prices and elevated interest rates that are weighing on their finances.
一些消费者，尤其是那些收入较低的消费者，已经感受到了物价上涨和利率上升的双重压力，这些压力正在加重他们的财务负担。
pinch n.
1. 捏；掐；一撮
【例】to give him a pinch on the arm 掐一下他的胳膊
a pinch of salt 一小撮盐
2. 紧缺；困难
【例】the pinch of hunger 饥饿之苦
energy pinch 能源短缺
【近义词】squeeze n. 挤压；拮据
bite v. 产生不好的影响
delinquency n.
1. 拖欠债务
【例】delinquency in paying the rent 欠租不还
【近义词】default n. 拖欠债务
2. 犯罪行为
【例】juvenile delinquency 青少年犯罪
Credit card delinquencies are rising, and household debt has swelled. Pandemic-era savings have dwindled. In June, Americans saved just 3.4 percent of their after-tax income, compared with 4.8 percent a year earlier.
信用卡违约率正在上升，家庭债务也在膨胀。疫情时期的储蓄已经逐渐减少。6月份，美国人的储蓄仅占税后收入的3.4%，而一年前这一比例为4.8%。
pinch n.
1. 捏；掐；一撮
【例】to give him a pinch on the arm 掐一下他的胳膊
a pinch of salt 一小撮盐
2. 紧缺；困难
【例】the pinch of hunger 饥饿之苦
energy pinch 能源短缺
【近义词】squeeze n. 挤压；拮据
bite v. 产生不好的影响
delinquency n.
1. 拖欠债务
【例】delinquency in paying the rent 欠租不还
【近义词】default n. 拖欠债务
2. 犯罪行为
【例】juvenile delinquency 青少年犯罪
On calls with investors and in boardrooms around the country, corporate executives are acknowledging that customers are no longer spending as freely as they used to. And they are bracing themselves for the slide to continue.
全国各地的公司高管在与投资者的电话会议和在董事会议上承认，消费者不再像过去那样随心所欲地花钱了。而且他们正在为消费持续下滑做好准备。
acknowledge v.
1. 承认（某事属实）
【例】to acknowledge the need for reform
承认改革的必要性
【近义词】concede/admit v. 承认（某事属实）；承认过错
2. 认可；承认（某种地位）
【例】to acknowledge his membership 认可他的会员身份
【近义词】recognize v. 认可
brace n. & v.
1. 作名词：箍子；支架
【例】She wore braces when she was a teenager.
她十几岁的时候戴牙套。
2. 作动词：（为困难或坏事）做准备
【例】Brace yourself for the bad news.
你准备好，有坏消息要告诉你。
On Wednesday, Disney cited a “moderation of consumer demand” that “exceeded our previous expectations” for a newly challenging outlook at its theme parks, a key to its profitability.
周三，迪士尼表示，因为“消费者需求放缓超出了我们之前的预期”，所以其主题公园未来将面临新的挑战，而主题公园是其盈利能力的关键所在。
cite v. 提及（原因）
【例】He cited his heavy workload as the reason for his breakdown.
他提到繁重的工作负荷是导致他累垮的原因。
moderation n. 缓和
【例】the moderation of the hot weather 炎热天气的消退
【搭配】in moderation 适度地
【拓展】moderate adj. 适度的；适中的
moderate v. 使适中；使缓和
There is also apprehension among retailers, fast-food chains and packaged-goods makers.
零售商、快餐连锁店和包装商品制造商也对此感到担忧。
economize v. 节约；节俭
【例】She economizes by buying in bulk and using coupons.
她通过大量囤货和用优惠券来省钱。
【拓展】economy n. 经济；节约
economic adj. 经济的
economical adj. 精打细算的；节俭的
【例】the economic growth 经济增长
an economical use of space 节约利用空间
Chris Kempczinski, the chief executive of McDonald’s, likewise noted last week that some lower-income consumers were “dropping out of the market, eating at home and finding other ways to economize.”
麦当劳首席执行官克里斯·肯普辛斯基上周同样指出，一些低收入消费者“退出了市场，在家里吃饭，寻找其他省钱的方法”。
economize v. 节约；节俭
【例】She economizes by buying in bulk and using coupons.
她通过大量囤货和用优惠券来省钱。
【拓展】economy n. 经济；节约
economic adj. 经济的
economical adj. 精打细算的；节俭的
【例】the economic growth 经济增长
an economical use of space 节约利用空间
McDonald’s, which reported a 1 percent decline in global same-store sales, a measure of year-over-year retail sales for companies, in the quarter that ended in June, has been trying to lure back consumers with a $5 value meal.
麦当劳报告称，在截至6月份的季度里，全球同店销售额下降了1%，这是衡量公司同比零售额的一项指标，因此麦当劳一直在试图用5美元的超值套餐来吸引消费者回归。
lure v. & n.
1. 作动词：引诱；诱惑
【例】The child was lured into a car.
小孩子被诱骗上了车。
【搭配】lure sb into sth/doing 引诱某人做某事
2. 作名词：诱饵；诱惑力
【例】the lure of big cities 大城市的吸引力
【拓展】allure n. 诱惑力；吸引力
课后练习
The economy recovered from the pandemic thanks to ____.
A. prompt financial policies
B. robust consumer spending
C. increased government spending
D. decreased prices of goods and services
What is the current economic situation according to many economists?
A. The unemployment rate is decreasing.
B. The economy is slipping into recession.
C. The economy might remain sound and healthy.
D. The labor market will collapse in the near future.
What is the situation of low-income consumers?
A. They are unaffected by higher interest rates.
B. They are already experiencing financial strain.
C. They are better off because they spent less money in the pandemic.
D. They are saving more of their income compared to the previous year.
What economic trend have corporate executives noticed?
A. Decreasing business investment and budget.
B. Declining consumer spending and profitability.
C. Less interest in entertainment and theme parks.
D. More spending on healthy and wholesome food.