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人工智能会像计算机一样带来红利吗？
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人工智能会像计算机一样带来红利吗？
自OpenAI发布GPT-3.5并引起轰动，已经过去差不多两年了。 
双语精读
Will the AI age offer the same benefits as the computer age?
人工智能时代会带来像计算机时代一样的红利吗？
Almost two years have passed since OpenAI released GPT-3.5 to great fanfare. Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, compared the technology's arrival to his first encounter with the graphical user interface-a breakthrough that reshaped personal computing-in the 1980s.
自OpenAI发布GPT-3.5并引起轰动，已经过去差不多两年了。微软的联合创始人比尔·盖茨将这项技术的到来与他在20世纪80年代首次看到图形用户界面进行类比——后者是重塑了个人计算机技术的突破。
Others predicted that generative artificial intelligence (AI) would rapidly transform economies around the world, leaving many millions unemployed. Yet despite the hype and the worries, AI's impact has been muted thus far.
其他人预测，生成式人工智能将迅速改变世界各地的经济，导致数百万人失业。然而，尽管有炒作和各种担忧，但人工智能的影响迄今为止一直很微弱。
Why has AI so far failed to live up to its promise? Lessons from the computer age can shed light on the question.
为什么人工智能到目前为止没能实现承诺？计算机时代的经验教训可以帮助理解这个问题。
As with AI today, the early years of the computer age were marked by predictions of economic transformation. In 1965 Herbert Simon, a giant of computer science, declared that "machines will be capable within 20 years of doing any work that a man can do."
就像今天的人工智能一样，计算机时代早期的特点也是人们预测将发生经济变革。1965年，计算机科学巨擘赫伯特·西蒙宣称：“机器将在20年内能够完成人类能做的任何工作。”
Two decades after Simon's prediction, the promised productivity revolution remained elusive. In 1987 Robert Solow, a Nobel laureate, famously quipped that "you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics."
在西蒙做出预测二十年后，计算机所承诺的生产力革命仍然难寻其踪。1987年，诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·索洛说了有名的金句：“你可以在任何地方看到计算机时代，除了生产力统计数据。”
Only in the late 1990s did the economic transformation at last materialise, leading Solow to acknowledge-three decades after the initial exuberance-that computers had begun to reshape the economy.
直到20世纪90年代末，经济变革才终于实现，让索洛在最初的兴奋过去三十年后才承认，计算机已经开始重塑经济了。
Three main factors contributed to the eventual arrival of a computer-age productivity boom: companies ramped up investment in information technology, computer and software prices fell rapidly, and bosses found new ways to integrate the tech into their operations.
三个主要因素促使计算机时代生产力大繁荣最终到来：企业加大了对信息技术的投资，计算机和软件价格迅速下降，老板们找到了将计算机技术融入其业务的新方法。
Are these factors in evidence today? Begin with IT investment. Starting in 1995, firms ramped up spending on computer hardware, network infrastructure and software. Between 1995 and 2000, their investment in information-processing equipment and software rose by an average of 20% a year in real terms.
这些因素在今天是否明显？首先看信息技术投资。从1995年起，企业加大了对计算机硬件、网络基础设施、软件的支出。在1995年至2000年期间，企业在信息处理设备和软件方面的投资按实际价值计算，平均每年增长20%。
By contrast, recent capital expenditure has been underwhelming. Over the past two years, business investment in information-processing equipment and software has grown by around 4% a year.
与之相反，最近的资本支出一直乏力。在过去两年中，企业在信息处理设备和软件方面的投资每年增长约4%。
The second half of the 1990s also witnessed a dramatic fall in the quality-adjusted price of computer hardware and software. The AI era has yet to see a corresponding decrease in prices: over the past five years, those for software and information-processing equipment have barely budged.
20世纪90年代后半期，计算机硬件和软件的质量调整后价格也大幅下降。而人工智能时代尚未看到相应的价格下降：在过去五年，软件和信息处理设备的价格几乎没有变动。
词汇预习
- economic [高考]
美[ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk] | 英[ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪk]
adj. 经济的，经济学的；有利可图的；节约的 - economy [高考]
美[ɪˈkɑːnəmi] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmi]
n. 经济；节约
adj. 经济的；廉价的 - despite [高考]
美[dɪˈspaɪt] | 英[dɪˈspaɪt]
prep. 尽管；不管
n. 憎恨；轻视 - impact [高考]
美[ˈɪmpækt , ɪmˈpækt] | 英[ˈɪmpækt , ɪmˈpækt]
n. 影响；冲击力；撞击
vt. 挤入；压紧；撞击；对 ... 发生影响
vi. 冲击；撞击；产生影响 - giant [高考]
美[ˈdʒaɪənt] | 英[ˈdʒaɪənt]
n. 巨人；巨物；大公司
adj. 巨大的 - contrast [高考]
美[ˈkɑːntræst , kənˈtræst] | 英[ˈkɒntrɑːst , kənˈtrɑːst]
n. 对比；差别；对照物
v. 对比；成对照
n. [计算机] 反差 - investment [高考]
美[ɪnˈvestmənt] | 英[ɪnˈvestmənt]
n. 投资；投资额；投入 - founder [高考]
美[ˈfaʊndɚ] | 英[ˈfaʊndə(r)]
n. 创立者
v. 摔倒；失败；沉没；弄跛 - dramatic [高考]
美[drəˈmætɪk] | 英[drəˈmætɪk]
adj. 戏剧性的；引人注目的；给人深刻印象的；激动人心的 - productivity [高考]
美[ˌprɑːdʌkˈtɪvəti] | 英[ˌprɒdʌkˈtɪvəti]
n. 生产率；生产力 - encounter [高考]
美[ɪnˈkaʊntər] | 英[ɪnˈkaʊntə(r)]
n. 意外的相见；邂逅；遭遇
v. 遭遇；遇到；偶然碰到 - transformation [高考]
美[ˌtrænsfərˈmeɪʃn] | 英[ˌtrænsfəˈmeɪʃn]
n. 转型；转化；改造 - unemployed [高考]
美[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪd] | 英[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪd]
adj. 失业的；未投资的
n. 失业者 - infrastructure [高考]
美[ˈɪnfrəstrʌktʃər] | 英[ˈɪnfrəstrʌktʃə(r)]
n. 基础；基础设施 - integrate [高考]
美[ˈɪntɪɡreɪt] | 英[ˈɪntɪɡreɪt]
v. 整合；结合；取消隔离；求积分
adj. 完整的；组合的 - barely [高考]
美[ˈberli] | 英[ˈbeəli]
adv. 几乎不；刚刚；勉强；少量地 - reshape [高考]
美[riˈʃep] | 英[ˌri:ˈʃeɪp]
v. 重新塑造；使成新的形状；改造；打开新局面 - within [高考]
美[wɪˈðɪn] | 英[wɪˈðɪn]
prep. 在(某段时间、距离或范围)内；在…里面
adv. 在…里面
n. 内部 - thus [高考]
美[ðʌs] | 英[ðʌs]
adv. 这样；如此；因此；从而 - evidence [高考]
美[ˈevɪdəns] | 英[ˈevɪdəns]
n. 证据；证词；根据；迹象
v. 证明；证实 - arrival [高考]
美[əˈraɪvl] | 英[əˈraɪvl]
n. 到达；达到；到达者；新生儿 - intelligence [高考]
美[ɪnˈtelɪdʒəns] | 英[ɪnˈtelɪdʒəns]
n. 智力；智慧；才智；（尤指关于敌国的）情报 - decrease [高考]
美[dɪˈkriːs , ˈdiːkriːs] | 英[dɪˈkriːs , ˈdiːkriːs]
v. 减少；减小；降低
n. 减少；降低 - artificial [高考]
美[ˌɑːrtɪˈfɪʃl] | 英[ˌɑːtɪˈfɪʃl]
adj. 人造的；虚伪的；武断的 - revolution [高考]
美[ˌrevəˈluːʃn] | 英[ˌrevəˈluːʃn]
n. 革命；变革；重大改变；旋转 - boom [高考]
美[buːm] | 英[buːm]
n. 繁荣；兴旺；激增；低沉声
n. 帆杠；吊杆；支臂；尾桁；水栅
vi. 急速增长；发出低沉声
vt. 使兴旺；促进 - software [高考]
美[ˈsɔːftwer] | 英[ˈsɒftweə(r)]
n. 软件 - transform [高考]
美[trænsˈfɔːrm] | 英[trænsˈfɔːm]
v. 使改观，使变形，使转化；变换（电流）的电压；（数）变换（数学实体）
n.（数，语言学）变换式，转换句；（数，语言学）转换规则 - initial [高考]
美[ɪˈnɪʃl] | 英[ɪˈnɪʃl]
n. (词)首字母
adj. 开始的；最初的；字首的
vt. 签姓名的首字母于 - acknowledge [高考]
美[əkˈnɑːlɪdʒ] | 英[əkˈnɒlɪdʒ]
vt. 承认；告知收到；公认；表示感谢；注意到 - breakthrough [高考]
美[ˈbreɪkθruː] | 英[ˈbreɪkθruː]
n. 突破，突破性进展；关键问题的解决 - decrease in [高考]
美 | 英
在……方面的减少 - live up to [高考]
美[lɪv ʌp tu] | 英[lɪv ʌp tu]
不辜负，做到，实践 - capable [高考]
美[ˈkeɪpəbl] | 英[ˈkeɪpəbl]
adj. 有能力的；能干的；有...的可能性 - era [高考]
美[ˈɪrə] | 英[ˈɪərə]
n. 纪元；时代；年代 - hardware [高考]
美[ˈhɑːrdwer] | 英[ˈhɑːdweə(r)]
n. 五金器具；[计] 硬件；武器装备 - statistics [高考]
美[stəˈtɪstɪks] | 英[stəˈtɪstɪks]
n. 统计学；统计；统计数字 - would [高考]
美[wʊd , wəd] | 英[wʊd , wəd]
aux. 将；可能；大概；总会；愿意；will的过去式 - shed [四级]
美[ʃed] | 英[ʃed]
vt. 除掉；使脱落；使流出；使清晰
n. 小屋；车棚 - tech [四级]
美[tek] | 英[tek]
n. 技术学校；技术；技术人员 - up to [四级]
美[ʌp tu] | 英[ʌp tu]
胜任；直到；多达；该由 ... 决定 - fall in [四级]
美[fɔl ɪn] | 英[fɔ:l ɪn]
塌陷； 同意； 集合； 排队； 掉入； 跌入 - shed light on [四级]
美[ʃed laɪt ɑːn] | 英[ʃed laɪt ɒn]
照亮； 阐明； 把 ... 弄清楚 - corresponding [四级]
美[ˌkɔːrəˈspɑːndɪŋ] | 英[ˌkɒrəˈspɒndɪŋ]
adj. 相当的；相应的；一致的 - leading [四级]
美[ˈliːdɪŋ , ˈledɪŋ] | 英[ˈliːdɪŋ , ˈledɪŋ]
adj. 领导的；指导的；主要的；在前的 - expenditure [六级]
美[ɪkˈspendɪtʃər] | 英[ɪkˈspendɪtʃə(r)]
n. 开支；消耗 - interface [六级]
美[ˈɪntərfeɪs] | 英[ˈɪntəfeɪs]
n. 界面；接口
v. 连接；作接口 - economies [专四]
美[ɪ'kɒnəmɪz] | 英[iˈkɔnəmiz]
节约；经济（名词economy的复数形式） - fell [专四]
美[fel] | 英[fel]
vt. 砍伐；击倒
n. 丘原；沼泽地
adj. 凶残的；毁灭性的 - laureate [专八]
美[ˈlɔriət] | 英[ˈlɒriət]
n. 荣誉获得者，获奖者；桂冠诗人
adj.戴桂冠的；有戴桂冠资格的；(桂冠)用月桂树造的
v. 使戴桂冠；任命为桂冠诗人 - grown [专八]
美[groʊn] | 英[grəʊn]
adj. 长大的；成年的；长满某物的 - hype [专八]
美[haɪp] | 英[haɪp]
n. 天花乱坠的广告宣传；[俚]皮下注射液；吸毒成瘾的人
vt.大肆宣传; 夸张地宣传（某人或某事物） - marked [托福]
美[mɑːrkt] | 英[mɑːkt]
adj. 有记号的；显著的；受监视的
v. 弄污；打分；留意；做标记（动词mark的过去式和过去分词） - generative [雅思]
美[ˈdʒenərətɪv] | 英[ˈdʒenərətɪv]
adj. 生殖的；生产的；有生殖力的 - terms [雅思]
美[tɜːrmz] | 英[tɜːmz]
n. 条件；条款；关系；措辞
重点讲解
Will the AI age offer the same benefits as the computer age?
人工智能时代会带来像计算机时代一样的红利吗？
compare A to B 把A和B类比
【例】Shall I compare you to a summer's day?
我可否把你比作夏日？
【反义词】contrast A with/and B 把A和B对比
【例】The poem contrasts youth and age.
这首诗对比了青春与老年。
Almost two years have passed since OpenAI released GPT-3.5 to great fanfare. Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, compared the technology’s arrival to his first encounter with the graphical user interface—a breakthrough that reshaped personal computing—in the 1980s.
自OpenAI发布GPT-3.5并引起轰动，已经过去差不多两年了。微软的联合创始人比尔·盖茨将这项技术的到来与他在20世纪80年代首次看到图形用户界面进行类比——后者是重塑了个人计算机技术的突破。
compare A to B 把A和B类比
【例】Shall I compare you to a summer's day?
我可否把你比作夏日？
【反义词】contrast A with/and B 把A和B对比
【例】The poem contrasts youth and age.
这首诗对比了青春与老年。
Others predicted that generative artificial intelligence (AI) would rapidly transform economies around the world, leaving many millions unemployed. Yet despite the hype and the worries, AI’s impact has been muted thus far.
其他人预测，生成式人工智能将迅速改变世界各地的经济，导致数百万人失业。然而，尽管有炒作和各种担忧，但人工智能的影响迄今为止一直很微弱。
hype n. 夸张的宣传；炒作
【例】Don't believe all the hype. The movie is not that good.
别相信那些炒作，电影没那么好看。
【辨析】hyper adj. 兴奋的；亢奋的
【例】Coffee makes me hyper.
咖啡让我精神亢奋。
muted adj. 微弱的；不清晰的
【例】the muted applause 稀稀拉拉的掌声
the muted reaction 没什么热情的反应
the muted criticism 温和的批评
【拓展】mute v./adj. 静音/消音的
live up to 达到（某种水平）
【例】to live up to his father's expectation
达到他父亲的期望
to live up to its fame 不负盛名
【近义词】fulfill v. 达到；实现
【反义词】fall short of 未达到
shed light on 使更清晰；使更容易理解
【例】Recent research has shed new light on the causes of the disease.
最近的研究让人们进一步理解了这种疾病的成因。
【近义词】clarify v. 使更清晰；阐明
Why has AI so far failed to live up to its promise? Lessons from the computer age can shed light on the question.
为什么人工智能到目前为止没能实现承诺？计算机时代的经验教训可以帮助理解这个问题。
hype n. 夸张的宣传；炒作
【例】Don't believe all the hype. The movie is not that good.
别相信那些炒作，电影没那么好看。
【辨析】hyper adj. 兴奋的；亢奋的
【例】Coffee makes me hyper.
咖啡让我精神亢奋。
muted adj. 微弱的；不清晰的
【例】the muted applause 稀稀拉拉的掌声
the muted reaction 没什么热情的反应
the muted criticism 温和的批评
【拓展】mute v./adj. 静音/消音的
live up to 达到（某种水平）
【例】to live up to his father's expectation
达到他父亲的期望
to live up to its fame 不负盛名
【近义词】fulfill v. 达到；实现
【反义词】fall short of 未达到
shed light on 使更清晰；使更容易理解
【例】Recent research has shed new light on the causes of the disease.
最近的研究让人们进一步理解了这种疾病的成因。
【近义词】clarify v. 使更清晰；阐明
As with AI today, the early years of the computer age were marked by predictions of economic transformation. In 1965 Herbert Simon, a giant of computer science, declared that “machines will be capable within 20 years of doing any work that a man can do.”
就像今天的人工智能一样，计算机时代早期的特点也是人们预测将发生经济变革。1965年，计算机科学巨擘赫伯特·西蒙宣称：“机器将在20年内能够完成人类能做的任何工作。”
mark v. 标志；有某种特征
【例】The melting of snow marks the arrival of spring.
冰雪融化标志着春天到来。
The band's songs are marked by imaginative lyrics.
这个乐队歌曲的特点是歌词非常天马行空。
elusive adj. 难找的；难以解释的；难以捉摸的
【例】an elusive concept 说不清的概念
an elusive solution 很难找到的办法
an elusive animal 神出鬼没的动物
【拓展】elude v. 逃避；使做不到
【例】His name/Success eluded me.
我想不起来他的名字/我无法取得成功。
Two decades after Simon’s prediction, the promised productivity revolution remained elusive. In 1987 Robert Solow, a Nobel laureate, famously quipped that “you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”
在西蒙做出预测二十年后，计算机所承诺的生产力革命仍然难寻其踪。1987年，诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·索洛说了有名的金句：“你可以在任何地方看到计算机时代，除了生产力统计数据。”
mark v. 标志；有某种特征
【例】The melting of snow marks the arrival of spring.
冰雪融化标志着春天到来。
The band's songs are marked by imaginative lyrics.
这个乐队歌曲的特点是歌词非常天马行空。
elusive adj. 难找的；难以解释的；难以捉摸的
【例】an elusive concept 说不清的概念
an elusive solution 很难找到的办法
an elusive animal 神出鬼没的动物
【拓展】elude v. 逃避；使做不到
【例】His name/Success eluded me.
我想不起来他的名字/我无法取得成功。
Only in the late 1990s did the economic transformation at last materialise, leading Solow to acknowledge—three decades after the initial exuberance—that computers had begun to reshape the economy.
直到20世纪90年代末，经济变革才终于实现，让索洛在最初的兴奋过去三十年后才承认，计算机已经开始重塑经济了。
materialize v. 变成实体；实现
【例】The plan/promise has materialized.
计划/承诺实现了。
【拓展】material n. 物质；材料
【近义词】fulfill/achieve/deliver v. 使实现
【例】to fulfill the plan 使计划实现/执行计划
Three main factors contributed to the eventual arrival of a computer-age productivity boom: companies ramped up investment in information technology, computer and software prices fell rapidly, and bosses found new ways to integrate the tech into their operations.
三个主要因素促使计算机时代生产力大繁荣最终到来：企业加大了对信息技术的投资，计算机和软件价格迅速下降，老板们找到了将计算机技术融入其业务的新方法。
ramp up 增加；提高
【例】to ramp up production 提高产量
【拓展】ramp n. 斜面；坡道
integrate sth into... 把某物融入……；使变为一体
【例】The manager tried to integrate the newcomer into the team as quickly as possible.
经理努力让新人尽快融入团队。
【反义词】isolate sth from... 把某物从……中分出来；使孤立
be in evidence 明显的
【例】The first signs of success are in evidence.
成功的最初迹象已显然可见。
【近义词】evident adj. 明显的
Are these factors in evidence today? Begin with IT investment. Starting in 1995, firms ramped up spending on computer hardware, network infrastructure and software. Between 1995 and 2000, their investment in information-processing equipment and software rose by an average of 20% a year in real terms.
这些因素在今天是否明显？首先看信息技术投资。从1995年起，企业加大了对计算机硬件、网络基础设施、软件的支出。在1995年至2000年期间，企业在信息处理设备和软件方面的投资按实际价值计算，平均每年增长20%。
ramp up 增加；提高
【例】to ramp up production 提高产量
【拓展】ramp n. 斜面；坡道
integrate sth into... 把某物融入……；使变为一体
【例】The manager tried to integrate the newcomer into the team as quickly as possible.
经理努力让新人尽快融入团队。
【反义词】isolate sth from... 把某物从……中分出来；使孤立
be in evidence 明显的
【例】The first signs of success are in evidence.
成功的最初迹象已显然可见。
【近义词】evident adj. 明显的
By contrast, recent capital expenditure has been underwhelming. Over the past two years, business investment in information-processing equipment and software has grown by around 4% a year.
与之相反，最近的资本支出一直乏力。在过去两年中，企业在信息处理设备和软件方面的投资每年增长约4%。
underwhelming adj. 平淡无奇的
【例】His performance was underwhelming.
他表现平平。
【近义词】unimpressive/flat adj. 平淡的
【拓展】overwhelming adj. 压倒性的；难以抗拒的
budge v. 轻微移动
【例】The key turned but the door wouldn't budge.
钥匙转了一下, 门却一动也不动。
【辨析】nudge v. （用胳膊肘）轻推
【例】He nudged me and whispered something.
他用胳膊肘轻轻推了我一下，然后低声说了句什么。
The second half of the 1990s also witnessed a dramatic fall in the quality-adjusted price of computer hardware and software. The AI era has yet to see a corresponding decrease in prices: over the past five years, those for software and information-processing equipment have barely budged.
20世纪90年代后半期，计算机硬件和软件的质量调整后价格也大幅下降。而人工智能时代尚未看到相应的价格下降：在过去五年，软件和信息处理设备的价格几乎没有变动。
underwhelming adj. 平淡无奇的
【例】His performance was underwhelming.
他表现平平。
【近义词】unimpressive/flat adj. 平淡的
【拓展】overwhelming adj. 压倒性的；难以抗拒的
budge v. 轻微移动
【例】The key turned but the door wouldn't budge.
钥匙转了一下, 门却一动也不动。
【辨析】nudge v. （用胳膊肘）轻推
【例】He nudged me and whispered something.
他用胳膊肘轻轻推了我一下，然后低声说了句什么。
课后练习
What kind of impact does AI have at present?
A. It has had an impact similar to the graphical user interface.
B. It has led to mass unemployment as many had predicted.
C. It has brought insignificant changes to the economy.
D. It has changed the world in an unexpected way.What did the quip of Robert Solow mean?
A. The productivity boom due to computers would arrive soon.
B. Computers had completely transformed the economy by 1987.
C. The computer age was not supported by any statistical evidence.
D. There was a lack of studies on the economic impact of computers.The investment in AI-related hardware and software is ____.
A. as high as the investment in computer-related areas
B. impossible to estimate due to the vague definition of AI
C. higher than the recent business investment in other fields
D. lower than the level needed for AI to reshape the economyThe prices of software and equipment in the AI era mean that ____.
A. the high cost may limit the wider adoption of AI
B. companies have ramped up their investment in AI
C. the quality of AI software and equipment has improved
D. the AI industry is more profitable than the computer industry
