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自信的魔力与潜在危险
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自信的魔力与潜在危险
信心是会传染的。一个以清晰响亮的确定态度宣布立场的人，比那些多方讨好的人更可能有鼓舞作用。 
双语精读
The magic and the minefield of confidence
自信的魔力和潜在危险
Confidence is contagious. Someone declaring a position with ringing certainty is more likely to inspire than someone who hedges their bets.
信心是会传染的。一个以清晰响亮的确定态度宣布立场的人，比那些多方讨好的人更可能有鼓舞作用。
"We may fight them on the beaches; it depends a bit on the weather," would have been a lot less persuasive. What is true of Churchill's wartime oratory is true in less dramatic circumstances.
“我们可能会在海滩上与他们战斗，这稍微取决于天气。”如果这样说就不会那么有说服力了。丘吉尔战时演讲中的一些道理也适用于不那么戏剧性的情况。
A study by Matthias Brauer of the University of Mannheim and his co-authors analysed language used in letters from activist investors; it found that more confident letters were associated with more successful activist campaigns.
曼海姆大学的马蒂亚斯·布劳尔及其合著者的一项研究分析了社会活动投资者在信件中使用的语言，研究发现，更自信的信与更成功的社会运动相关。
Confidence confers status. In a study published in 2012 by Cameron Anderson of the University of California, Berkeley and his co-authors, students on an MBA course were asked to take an online survey before they started classes.
信心赋予地位。在2012年由加州大学伯克利分校的卡梅隆·安德森及其合著者发表的一项研究中，MBA课程的学生们被要求在开始上课之前参加一项在线调查。
The questionnaire asked participants to say if they recognised certain names, events and works of art; unknown to them, the options included both genuine choices, such as Maximilien Robespierre and "Pygmalion", and made-up ones like Bonnie Prince Lorenzo and "Windemere Wild".
问卷要求参与者们说出他们是否认识某些名字、事件、艺术作品，参与者们不知道的是，这些选项既包括真实的选择，如马克西米利安·罗伯斯庇尔和《皮格马利翁》，也包括编造的选择，如邦尼王子洛伦佐和《温德米尔荒野》。
Overconfident students who had picked more fictitious entries turned out to have the most influence on their classmates, according to end-of-term ratings.
那些选择了更多编造条目的过度自信的学生结果对同学的影响力最大，影响力根据期末评分判定。
As much as confidence brings rewards, however, it also brings danger.
然而就像自信带来了回报一样，自信也带来了危险。
Work by Ulrike Malmendier of the University of California, Berkeley and Geoffrey Tate of the University of Maryland has found that overconfident bosses are much more likely to undertake acquisitions (though they are more averse to external financing, believing that it undervalues their businesses). Their acquisitions are also more likely to destroy value.
加州大学伯克利分校的乌尔丽克·马尔门迪尔和马里兰大学的杰弗里·泰特的研究发现，过度自信的老板更有可能进行购置（尽管他们更不愿意进行外源融资，认为这低估了自己公司的价值）。他们的购置行为也更有可能破坏企业价值。
Another paper, by Guoli Chen of INSEAD and his co-authors, looked at the relationship between CEOs' confidence and their earnings forecasts. The researchers found that bosses with inflated levels of self-belief were slower to adjust their forecasts when they proved inaccurate.
由欧洲工商管理学院的陈国立及其合著者撰写的另一篇论文研究了CEO的自信与其盈利预测之间的关系。研究人员发现，过度自信的老板在预测被证明不准确时，调整预测的速度更慢。
In an ideal world, confidence would be distributed evenly and in just the right quantities: an optimally confident person is someone secure enough to trust their own judgment and to accept that it is fallible.
在理想世界中，信心会均匀分布且数量恰到好处：一个具有最适宜自信水平的人有足够的安全感，既相信自己的判断，又接受自己的判断可能出错。
词汇预习
- ideal [高考]
美[aɪˈdiːəl] | 英[aɪˈdiːəl]
adj. 理想的；完美的；空想的；观念的
n. 理想；典范；目标 - dramatic [高考]
美[drəˈmætɪk] | 英[drəˈmætɪk]
adj. 戏剧性的；引人注目的；给人深刻印象的；激动人心的 - evenly [高考]
美[ˈiːvnli] | 英[ˈiːvnli]
adv. 平衡地；平坦地；平等地 - certainty [高考]
美[ˈsɜːrtnti] | 英[ˈsɜːtnti]
n. 确定；确实的事情 - wartime [高考]
美[ˈwɔrtaɪm] | 英[ˈwɔ:taɪm]
n. 战时 - contagious [高考]
美[kənˈteɪdʒəs] | 英[kənˈteɪdʒəs]
adj. 传染性的；感染性的 - external [高考]
美[ɪkˈstɜːrnl] | 英[ɪkˈstɜːnl]
adj. 外来的；外部的；外面的；表面的
n. 外观；外部；外界事物 - inspire [高考]
美[ɪnˈspaɪər] | 英[ɪnˈspaɪə(r)]
vt. 鼓舞；激发；产生；赋予...灵感
vi. 吸入 - belief [高考]
美[bɪˈliːf] | 英[bɪˈliːf]
n. 信念；信仰；相信 - status [高考]
美[ˈsteɪtəs , ˈstætəs] | 英[ˈsteɪtəs]
n. 地位；情形；状况，状态；身份 - judgment [高考]
美['dʒʌdʒmənt] | 英['dʒʌdʒmənt]
n. 裁判；判断；判断力；意见；判决书 - secure [高考]
美[sɪˈkjʊr] | 英[sɪˈkjʊə(r)]
adj. 安全的；牢靠的；稳妥的
vt. 使安全；获得；固定 - adjust [高考]
美[əˈdʒʌst] | 英[əˈdʒʌst]
v. 调整；校准；调节；使适应 - undertake [高考]
美[ˌʌndərˈteɪk] | 英[ˌʌndəˈteɪk]
v. 承担；从事；保证；答应 - self [高考]
美[self] | 英[self]
n. 自己；本性；自我
pron. 我自己；你自己；他或她自己
adj.同一的；纯净的；单一的
v. 近亲繁殖；自花授粉 - questionnaire [高考]
美[ˌkwestʃəˈner] | 英[ˌkwestʃəˈneə(r)]
n. 调查表；问卷 - genuine [高考]
美[ˈdʒenjuɪn] | 英[ˈdʒenjuɪn]
adj. 真诚的；真正的；真实的；地道的 - would [高考]
美[wʊd , wəd] | 英[wʊd , wəd]
aux. 将；可能；大概；总会；愿意；will的过去式 - activist [四级]
美[ˈæktəvɪst] | 英[ˈæktɪvɪst]
n. 活动分子；积极分子；激进分子 - persuasive [四级]
美[pərˈsweɪsɪv] | 英[pəˈsweɪsɪv]
adj. 有说服力的；令人信服的 - inaccurate [四级]
美[ɪnˈækjərɪt] | 英[ɪnˈækjərət]
adj. 不准确的；错误的 - minefield [四级]
美[ˈmaɪnˌfild] | 英[ˈmaɪnfi:ld]
n. 雷区
n. 需小心应付的局势 - earnings [四级]
美[ˈɜːrnɪŋz] | 英[ˈɜːnɪŋz]
n. 收入；利润 - oratory [专四]
美[ˈɔrətɔri] | 英[ˈɒrətri]
n. 讲演术；演说；祈祷室；小礼拜堂
n. （天主教）奥拉托利会 - according [专四]
美[ə'kɔrdɪŋ] | 英[ə'kɔːdɪŋ]
adj. 相符的；相应的；一致的
v. 给予；符合，一致；正式协议（accord的现在分词） - works [专八]
美[wəks] | 英[wə:ks]
n. 工厂；修建；机器部件；全套物品 - fictitious [专八]
美[fɪkˈtɪʃəs] | 英[fɪkˈtɪʃəs]
adj. 假想的；虚假的；虚伪的 - fallible [专八]
美[ˈfæləbl] | 英[ˈfæləbl]
adj. 易犯错误的；可能不正确的 - overconfident [托福]
美[ˌoʊvərˈkɑnfɪdənt] | 英[ˌəʊvəˈkɒnfɪdənt]
adj. 自负的；过于自信的
重点讲解
The magic and the minefield of confidence
自信的魔力和潜在危险
contagious adj. 传染性的；有感染力的
【例】a contagious disease 有传染性的疾病
a contagious laughter 有感染力的笑声
【近义词】infectious adj. 传染性的；有感染力的
hedge your bets （为防止损失）多方下注；骑墙
【例】The politician hedged his bets during the campaign, not fully committing to either side of the controversial issue.
这位政客在竞选的时候持骑墙态度，对这个有争议的问题没有完全站队任何一方。
【拓展】hedge n. 树篱；防止损失的手段；对冲
Confidence is contagious. Someone declaring a position with ringing certainty is more likely to inspire than someone who hedges their bets.
信心是会传染的。一个以清晰响亮的确定态度宣布立场的人，比那些多方讨好的人更可能有鼓舞作用。
contagious adj. 传染性的；有感染力的
【例】a contagious disease 有传染性的疾病
a contagious laughter 有感染力的笑声
【近义词】infectious adj. 传染性的；有感染力的
hedge your bets （为防止损失）多方下注；骑墙
【例】The politician hedged his bets during the campaign, not fully committing to either side of the controversial issue.
这位政客在竞选的时候持骑墙态度，对这个有争议的问题没有完全站队任何一方。
【拓展】hedge n. 树篱；防止损失的手段；对冲
“We may fight them on the beaches; it depends a bit on the weather,” would have been a lot less persuasive. What is true of Churchill’s wartime oratory is true in less dramatic circumstances.
“我们可能会在海滩上与他们战斗，这稍微取决于天气。”如果这样说就不会那么有说服力了。丘吉尔战时演讲中的一些道理也适用于不那么戏剧性的情况。
be true of/for sth 对某事来说是真的；适用于某事
【例】The music is dull, and the same is true of the acting.
音乐很沉闷，表演也是。
【辨析】be true to sth 忠于某事；与某事一样
【例】The movie is not true to the book.
电影并非忠于原著。
A study by Matthias Brauer of the University of Mannheim and his co-authors analysed language used in letters from activist investors; it found that more confident letters were associated with more successful activist campaigns.
曼海姆大学的马蒂亚斯·布劳尔及其合著者的一项研究分析了社会活动投资者在信件中使用的语言，研究发现，更自信的信与更成功的社会运动相关。
be true of/for sth 对某事来说是真的；适用于某事
【例】The music is dull, and the same is true of the acting.
音乐很沉闷，表演也是。
【辨析】be true to sth 忠于某事；与某事一样
【例】The movie is not true to the book.
电影并非忠于原著。
Confidence confers status. In a study published in 2012 by Cameron Anderson of the University of California, Berkeley and his co-authors, students on an MBA course were asked to take an online survey before they started classes.
信心赋予地位。在2012年由加州大学伯克利分校的卡梅隆·安德森及其合著者发表的一项研究中，MBA课程的学生们被要求在开始上课之前参加一项在线调查。
confer v. 赋予；带来
【例】The job confers respectability on the holder.
这个职业使得从事它的人受到尊敬。
【搭配】confer sth on sb 给某人赋予某物
【近义词】give v. 给予
make sth up 编造（故事、谎言等）
【例】to make up a story 编故事
【近义词】fake/invented/fabricated adj. 虚假的；编造的
【例】fake news 假新闻
invented stories 虚构的故事
fabricated evidence 捏造的证据
The questionnaire asked participants to say if they recognised certain names, events and works of art; unknown to them, the options included both genuine choices, such as Maximilien Robespierre and “Pygmalion”, and made-up ones like Bonnie Prince Lorenzo and “Windemere Wild”.
问卷要求参与者们说出他们是否认识某些名字、事件、艺术作品，参与者们不知道的是，这些选项既包括真实的选择，如马克西米利安·罗伯斯庇尔和《皮格马利翁》，也包括编造的选择，如邦尼王子洛伦佐和《温德米尔荒野》。
confer v. 赋予；带来
【例】The job confers respectability on the holder.
这个职业使得从事它的人受到尊敬。
【搭配】confer sth on sb 给某人赋予某物
【近义词】give v. 给予
make sth up 编造（故事、谎言等）
【例】to make up a story 编故事
【近义词】fake/invented/fabricated adj. 虚假的；编造的
【例】fake news 假新闻
invented stories 虚构的故事
fabricated evidence 捏造的证据
Overconfident students who had picked more fictitious entries turned out to have the most influence on their classmates, according to end-of-term ratings.
那些选择了更多编造条目的过度自信的学生结果对同学的影响力最大，影响力根据期末评分判定。
fictitious adj. 虚假的；编造的
【例】a fictitious name 编造的名字；假名字
【辨析】fictional adj. （小说、故事等）虚构的
fiction n. 小说
As much as confidence brings rewards, however, it also brings danger.
然而就像自信带来了回报一样，自信也带来了危险。
fictitious adj. 虚假的；编造的
【例】a fictitious name 编造的名字；假名字
【辨析】fictional adj. （小说、故事等）虚构的
fiction n. 小说
Work by Ulrike Malmendier of the University of California, Berkeley and Geoffrey Tate of the University of Maryland has found that overconfident bosses are much more likely to undertake acquisitions (though they are more averse to external financing, believing that it undervalues their businesses). Their acquisitions are also more likely to destroy value.
加州大学伯克利分校的乌尔丽克·马尔门迪尔和马里兰大学的杰弗里·泰特的研究发现，过度自信的老板更有可能进行购置（尽管他们更不愿意进行外源融资，认为这低估了自己公司的价值）。他们的购置行为也更有可能破坏企业价值。
acquisition n. 购置；收购（公司、土地、资产等）
【例】The company is considering a number of acquisitions.
公司在考虑收购一些东西。
【拓展】acquire v. 购置；收购
averse adj. 不喜欢的；不愿意的
【例】He was averse to (making) any change.
他反对（做出）任何改变。
【搭配】be averse to sth/doing sth 不喜欢（做）某事
【拓展】avert v. 避开；避免
aversion n. 厌恶；反感；回避
Another paper, by Guoli Chen of INSEAD and his co-authors, looked at the relationship between CEOs’ confidence and their earnings forecasts. The researchers found that bosses with inflated levels of self-belief were slower to adjust their forecasts when they proved inaccurate.
由欧洲工商管理学院的陈国立及其合著者撰写的另一篇论文研究了CEO的自信与其盈利预测之间的关系。研究人员发现，过度自信的老板在预测被证明不准确时，调整预测的速度更慢。
inflated adj. 膨胀的；过高的
【例】inflated prices 过高的价格
inflated language 夸张的语言
【拓展】inflate v. 充气；使膨胀
inflation n. 通货膨胀
In an ideal world, confidence would be distributed evenly and in just the right quantities: an optimally confident person is someone secure enough to trust their own judgment and to accept that it is fallible.
在理想世界中，信心会均匀分布且数量恰到好处：一个具有最适宜自信水平的人有足够的安全感，既相信自己的判断，又接受自己的判断可能出错。
optimal adj. 最佳的；最适宜的
【例】to obtain optimal results 获得最佳结果
【拓展】optimize v. 优化；使最佳化
【近义词】optimum adj. 最佳的
ideal adj. 理想的
fallible adj. 会犯错的
【例】All human beings are fallible.
人非圣贤，孰能无过。
【反义词】infallible adj. 不犯错的
【拓展】fault n. 过错；缺陷
false adj. 错误的
课后练习
Churchill’s wartime oratory is mentioned to show that ____.
A. confidence is not important in the everyday situation.
B. confidence is essential for successfully coping with a crisis
C. hedging bets is a better strategy than showing confidence
D. a confident statement is more inspiring than a hesitant oneHow were the overconfident students perceived by their MBA classmates?
A. They were often avoided by other students.
B. They were seen as less reliable or trustworthy.
C. They were considered to be more knowledgeable.
D. They were regarded as influential and had a higher status.What is the danger brought by confidence according to the text?
A. Overconfident bosses tend to undervalue their businesses.
B. Overconfident bosses are less likely to expand their businesses.
C. Overconfident bosses are more reluctant to correct their mistakes.
D. Overconfident bosses can never make accurate earnings forecasts.What does an optimally confident person look like?
A. A person who never doubts their judgment.
B. A person who always trusts other people’s opinions.
C. A person who strikes a balance between self-belief and modesty.
D. A person who takes precautions to avoid making unnecessary mistakes.
