- Published on
为什么AI还没有抢走你的工作
- Authors
为什么AI还没有抢走你的工作
几乎每周，世界都在向通用人工智能的方向迈进一步。 
双语精读
Why AI has not taken your job
为什么人工智能还没有抢走你的工作
Almost every week the world takes another step in the direction of artificial general intelligence. The most powerful AI models can do an astonishing array of tasks from writing detailed reports to creating video on demand.
几乎每周，世界都在向通用人工智能的方向迈进一步。最强大的AI模型能完成一系列令人惊叹的任务，从撰写详细报告到按需创建视频。
Hallucinations are becoming less of a problem. Small wonder, then, that so many people worry they will soon be surplus to requirements.
幻觉问题正逐渐减少。所以难怪这么多人担心自己很快会成为不被需要的多余的人。
But is ChatGPT actually putting anyone out of work? Lots of pundits claim that it is. Many point to a recent paper by Carl Benedikt Frey and Pedro Llanos-Paredes, both of the University of Oxford, which suggests a link between automation and declining demand for translators.
但ChatGPT真的在让任何人失业吗？许多专家声称确实如此。许多人引用了牛津大学卡尔·本尼迪克特·弗雷和佩德罗·亚诺斯-帕雷德斯最近发表的一篇论文，该论文指出自动化与笔译需求下降之间存在关联。
At the same time, however, official American data suggest that the number of people employed in interpretation, translation and the like is 7% higher than a year ago.
然而与此同时，美国官方数据显示，受雇从事口译、笔译等相关职业的人数较去年同期增长了7%。
Others still scour the macroeconomic data for signs of the forthcoming AI jobs-pocalypse. One popular measure is the ratio of the unemployment rate between recent college graduates and the overall American average.
其他人仍在宏观经济数据中搜寻AI就业末日即将到来的迹象。一个常用指标是新近大学毕业生失业率与美国整体平均失业率的比值。
Young graduates are now more likely than the average worker to be jobless. The explanation runs that they typically do entry-level jobs in knowledge-intensive industries-such as paralegal work or making slides in a management consultancy. It is exactly this sort of task that AI can do well.
如今的年轻毕业生比普通劳动者更有可能失业。对此的解释是年轻毕业生通常从事知识密集型行业的入门工作，比如律师助理，或在管理咨询公司做PPT。而AI擅长的正是这类任务。
So maybe the technology has eliminated these jobs? Well, no. Returning to a measure we introduced in 2023, we examine American data on employment by occupation, singling out workers that are believed to be vulnerable to AI.
所以或许AI已经淘汰了这些工作？嗯，没有。回顾本刊在2023年引入的一项指标，我们研究了美国按职业划分的就业数据，挑出了那些被认为容易受到AI影响的工作者。
These are white-collar employees, including people in back-office support, financial operations, sales and much more besides. We find no evidence of an AI hit. Quite the opposite, in fact. Over the past year the share of employment in white-collar work has risen very slightly. Wage growth is still reasonably strong, which is difficult to square with the notion that AI is causing demand for labour to fall.
这些都是白领员工，包括后勤支持、财务运营、销售等其他许多职位。我们没有发现AI对这些职位造成打击的证据。事实上，情况恰恰相反。过去一年，白领工作的就业比例略有上升。工资增长仍然相当强劲，这与AI导致劳动力需求下降的观点难以吻合。
There are two competing explanations for these trends. The first is that, despite the endless announcements about how firms are ushering AI into their operations, few make much use of the technology for serious work. An official measure suggests that less than 10% of American companies employ it to produce goods and services.
对于这些趋势存在两种不同的解释。第一种是尽管企业不断宣布如何将AI引入运营，但很少有企业将AI用于重要工作。一项官方数据显示，美国只有不到10%的公司用AI来生产商品和服务。
The second is that even when companies do adopt the tech, they do not let people go. AI may simply help workers do their jobs faster, rather than making them redundant. Whatever the explanation, for now there is no need to panic.
第二种解释是即便公司采用了AI技术，他们也不会解雇员工。AI或许只是帮助员工更高效地完成工作，而非取代他们的岗位。总之，无论原因是什么，目前都无需惊慌。
词汇预习
- financial [高考]
美[faɪˈnænʃl] | 英[faɪˈnænʃl]
adj. 金融的；财政的；[非正式]有钱的 - despite [高考]
美[dɪˈspaɪt] | 英[dɪˈspaɪt]
prep. 尽管；不管
n. 憎恨；轻视 - Oxford [高考]
美[ˈɑːksfərd] | 英[ˈɒksfəd]
n. 牛津城；牛津大学；牛津布；牛津鞋 - employment [高考]
美[ɪmˈplɔɪmənt] | 英[ɪmˈplɔɪmənt]
n. 职业；雇用；使用 - claim [高考]
美[kleɪm] | 英[kleɪm]
n. 索赔；宣称；声明；断言
v. 声称；宣称；认领；索取 - overall [高考]
美[ˌoʊvərˈɔːl , ˈoʊvərɔːl] | 英[ˌəʊvərˈɔːl , ˈəʊvərɔːl]
adj. 全部的；总体的；全面考虑的
adv. 总的来说；总共
n. 罩衫；工作服 - typically [高考]
美[ˈtɪpɪkli] | 英[ˈtɪpɪkli]
adv. 典型地；代表性地；通常，一般；不出所料地 - reasonably [高考]
美[ˈriznəblɪ] | 英[ˈri:znəbli]
adv. 适度地；相当地；合理地；有理性地 - ratio [高考]
美[ˈreɪʃioʊ] | 英[ˈreɪʃiəʊ]
n. 比率；比例 - intensive [高考]
美[ɪnˈtensɪv] | 英[ɪnˈtensɪv]
adj. 密集的；彻底的；精细的；强调的；加强的，集中的
n. 加强器；加强剂；【语】强义词[词首] - vulnerable [高考]
美[ˈvʌlnərəbl] | 英[ˈvʌlnərəbl]
adj. 易受伤害的；有弱点的；脆弱的 - interpretation [高考]
美[ɪnˌtɜːrprəˈteɪʃn] | 英[ɪnˌtɜːprəˈteɪʃn]
n. 解释；翻译；阐释；(艺术的)演绎 - demand [高考]
美[dɪˈmænd] | 英[dɪˈmɑːnd]
n. 要求；需求
v. 要求；查问；需要 - data [高考]
美[ˈdeɪtə] | 英[ˈdeɪtə]
n. 数据；资料 - growth [高考]
美[ɡroʊθ] | 英[ɡrəʊθ]
n. 【U】增长；生长；发展；种植
n. 【C】生长物；【医】瘤;赘生物 - rate [高考]
美[reɪt] | 英[reɪt]
n. 比率；速度；价格；费用；等级
v. 认为；估价；定等级；值得；怒斥；责骂 - evidence [高考]
美[ˈevɪdəns] | 英[ˈevɪdəns]
n. 证据；证词；根据；迹象
v. 证明；证实 - explanation [高考]
美[ˌekspləˈneɪʃn] | 英[ˌekspləˈneɪʃn]
n. 解释；说明 - intelligence [高考]
美[ɪnˈtelɪdʒəns] | 英[ɪnˈtelɪdʒəns]
n. 智力；智慧；才智；（尤指关于敌国的）情报 - adopt [高考]
美[əˈdɑːpt] | 英[əˈdɒpt]
v. 采用；收养；接受 - employ [高考]
美[ɪmˈplɔɪ] | 英[ɪmˈplɔɪ]
v. 雇佣；使用 - artificial [高考]
美[ˌɑːrtɪˈfɪʃl] | 英[ˌɑːtɪˈfɪʃl]
adj. 人造的；虚伪的；武断的 - panic [高考]
美[ˈpænɪk] | 英[ˈpænɪk]
n. 惊慌；恐慌
v. 使…惊慌；感到恐慌
adj. 恐慌的；惊慌的 - translation [高考]
美[trænzˈleɪʃn] | 英[trænzˈleɪʃn]
n. 翻译；译文；译本；转化 - entry [高考]
美[ˈentri] | 英[ˈentri]
n. 进入；进入权；入口；条目 - occupation [高考]
美[ˌɑːkjuˈpeɪʃn] | 英[ˌɒkjuˈpeɪʃn]
n. 职业；占有；消遣；居住 - endless [高考]
美[ˈendləs] | 英[ˈendləs]
adj. 无止境的；没完没了的 - unemployment [高考]
美[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt] | 英[ˌʌnɪmˈplɔɪmənt]
n. 失业；失业人数 - labour [高考]
美[ˈleɪbər] | 英[ˈleɪbə(r)]
n. 劳动；劳工；分娩
v. 努力；干苦力活；困难吃力地行进；反复说明
n. (英国)工党 - surplus [高考]
美[ˈsɜːrplʌs] | 英[ˈsɜːpləs]
n. 过剩；顺差；盈余
adj. 过剩的；多余的 - collar [高考]
美[ˈkɑːlər] | 英[ˈkɒlə(r)]
n. 衣领；项圈；[机]轴环
vt. 抓住；为 ... 戴上项圈；为 ... 上领子 - demand for [高考]
美[dɪˈmænd fɔr] | 英[diˈmɑ:nd fɔ:]
对 ... 的要求； 对 ... 的需求 - step in [高考]
美[stɛp ɪn] | 英[step in]
走进； 介入； 干预； 伸脚穿入 - out of work [高考]
美[ˌaʊt əv ˈwɜːrk] | 英[ˌaʊt əv ˈwɜːk]
失业； (机器)出问题 - notion [高考]
美[ˈnoʊʃn] | 英[ˈnəʊʃn]
n. 观念；概念；想法；主张 - automation [四级]
美[ˌɔːtəˈmeɪʃn] | 英[ˌɔːtəˈmeɪʃn]
n. 自动化 - tech [四级]
美[tek] | 英[tek]
n. 技术学校；技术；技术人员 - array [四级]
美[əˈreɪ] | 英[əˈreɪ]
n. 一系列；大批；数组；陈列，列队；盛装
vt. 排列；部署；打扮 - and the like [四级]
美[ənd ði laɪk] | 英[ænd ðə laik]
等等； 诸如此类 - detailed [四级]
美[dɪˈteld,ˈdiˌteld] | 英[ˈdi:teɪld]
adj. 详细的 - white-collar [六级]
美[ˌwaɪt ˈkɑːlər] | 英[ˌwaɪt ˈkɒlə(r)]
adj. 白领阶层的 - redundant [六级]
美[rɪˈdʌndənt] | 英[rɪˈdʌndənt]
adj. 多余的，过多的；累赘的，冗长的；解雇的；重复的，千篇一律的 - forthcoming [六级]
美[ˌfɔːrθˈkʌmɪŋ] | 英[ˌfɔːθˈkʌmɪŋ]
adj. 即将到来的；现成的；乐意帮助的 - out of [六级]
美[aʊt ʌv] | 英[aut ɔv]
prep. 离…一段距离；从…里；离开 ...；出于 - scour [专八]
美[ˈskaʊər] | 英[ˈskaʊə(r)]
v. 擦洗；搜寻；腹泻
n. 擦洗；腹泻 - in the direction of [考研]
美[ɪn ði dɪˈrɛkʃən ʌv] | 英[in ðə diˈrekʃən ɔv]
adj. 朝 ... 方向(沿 ... 方向) - less than [雅思]
美[les ðən] | 英[les ðən]
不到； 少于
重点讲解
Why AI has not taken your job
为什么人工智能还没有抢走你的工作
on demand 一经需求；按需
【例】Books can be printed on demand in the library.
图书馆里的书若有需求，即可复印。
【辨析】in demand 需求大的
【例】Good secretaries are always in demand.
优秀的秘书总是很抢手。
Almost every week the world takes another step in the direction of artificial general intelligence. The most powerful AI models can do an astonishing array of tasks from writing detailed reports to creating video on demand.
几乎每周，世界都在向通用人工智能的方向迈进一步。最强大的AI模型能完成一系列令人惊叹的任务，从撰写详细报告到按需创建视频。
on demand 一经需求；按需
【例】Books can be printed on demand in the library.
图书馆里的书若有需求，即可复印。
【辨析】in demand 需求大的
【例】Good secretaries are always in demand.
优秀的秘书总是很抢手。
Hallucinations are becoming less of a problem. Small wonder, then, that so many people worry they will soon be surplus to requirements.
幻觉问题正逐渐减少。所以难怪这么多人担心自己很快会成为不被需要的多余的人。
surplus to requirements 不需要的；多余的
【例】These items are surplus to requirements.
这几项不需要。
【拓展】surplus adj. 过剩的；多余的
【近义词】redundant adj. 多余的；不需要的
out of work 失业
【例】She had been out of work for a year.
她已经失业一年了。
【近义词】jobless/unemployed adj. 失业的
【拓展】out of control 失控
out of order 混乱失序
out of reach 无法触及
out of sight 看不见
But is ChatGPT actually putting anyone out of work? Lots of pundits claim that it is. Many point to a recent paper by Carl Benedikt Frey and Pedro Llanos-Paredes, both of the University of Oxford, which suggests a link between automation and declining demand for translators.
但ChatGPT真的在让任何人失业吗？许多专家声称确实如此。许多人引用了牛津大学卡尔·本尼迪克特·弗雷和佩德罗·亚诺斯-帕雷德斯最近发表的一篇论文，该论文指出自动化与笔译需求下降之间存在关联。
surplus to requirements 不需要的；多余的
【例】These items are surplus to requirements.
这几项不需要。
【拓展】surplus adj. 过剩的；多余的
【近义词】redundant adj. 多余的；不需要的
out of work 失业
【例】She had been out of work for a year.
她已经失业一年了。
【近义词】jobless/unemployed adj. 失业的
【拓展】out of control 失控
out of order 混乱失序
out of reach 无法触及
out of sight 看不见
At the same time, however, official American data suggest that the number of people employed in interpretation, translation and the like is 7% higher than a year ago.
然而与此同时，美国官方数据显示，受雇从事口译、笔译等相关职业的人数较去年同期增长了7%。
scour v. 搜寻；搜查
【例】They scoured the grounds for the missing keys．
他们在地上到处找丢失的钥匙。
【近义词】search some place for sth 在某地搜寻某物
【拓展】scout n. 童子军；侦察兵；探子
Others still scour the macroeconomic data for signs of the forthcoming AI jobs-pocalypse. One popular measure is the ratio of the unemployment rate between recent college graduates and the overall American average.
其他人仍在宏观经济数据中搜寻AI就业末日即将到来的迹象。一个常用指标是新近大学毕业生失业率与美国整体平均失业率的比值。
scour v. 搜寻；搜查
【例】They scoured the grounds for the missing keys．
他们在地上到处找丢失的钥匙。
【近义词】search some place for sth 在某地搜寻某物
【拓展】scout n. 童子军；侦察兵；探子
Young graduates are now more likely than the average worker to be jobless. The explanation runs that they typically do entry-level jobs in knowledge-intensive industries—such as paralegal work or making slides in a management consultancy. It is exactly this sort of task that AI can do well.
如今的年轻毕业生比普通劳动者更有可能失业。对此的解释是年轻毕业生通常从事知识密集型行业的入门工作，比如律师助理，或在管理咨询公司做PPT。而AI擅长的正是这类任务。
be vulnerable to 容易受到影响/伤害的
【例】Young children are especially vulnerable to the disease.
幼儿尤其容易感染这种疾病。
【反义词】be immune to sth 对某事免疫的；不受影响的
be insulated from sth 不受某事影响的
So maybe the technology has eliminated these jobs? Well, no. Returning to a measure we introduced in 2023, we examine American data on employment by occupation, singling out workers that are believed to be vulnerable to AI.
所以或许AI已经淘汰了这些工作？嗯，没有。回顾本刊在2023年引入的一项指标，我们研究了美国按职业划分的就业数据，挑出了那些被认为容易受到AI影响的工作者。
be vulnerable to 容易受到影响/伤害的
【例】Young children are especially vulnerable to the disease.
幼儿尤其容易感染这种疾病。
【反义词】be immune to sth 对某事免疫的；不受影响的
be insulated from sth 不受某事影响的
These are white-collar employees, including people in back-office support, financial operations, sales and much more besides. We find no evidence of an AI hit. Quite the opposite, in fact. Over the past year the share of employment in white-collar work has risen very slightly. Wage growth is still reasonably strong, which is difficult to square with the notion that AI is causing demand for labour to fall.
这些都是白领员工，包括后勤支持、财务运营、销售等其他许多职位。我们没有发现AI对这些职位造成打击的证据。事实上，情况恰恰相反。过去一年，白领工作的就业比例略有上升。工资增长仍然相当强劲，这与AI导致劳动力需求下降的观点难以吻合。
square with 与……相符/一致
【例】Your theory does not square with the facts.
你的理论与事实不符。
【近义词】agree with 与……相符/一致
align with 与……对齐/一致
be consistent with 与……一致
【反义词】be at odds with 与……矛盾
be in conflict with 与……冲突/有矛盾
There are two competing explanations for these trends. The first is that, despite the endless announcements about how firms are ushering AI into their operations, few make much use of the technology for serious work. An official measure suggests that less than 10% of American companies employ it to produce goods and services.
对于这些趋势存在两种不同的解释。第一种是尽管企业不断宣布如何将AI引入运营，但很少有企业将AI用于重要工作。一项官方数据显示，美国只有不到10%的公司用AI来生产商品和服务。
usher sth into 引路；把某物引入……
【例】The secretary ushered me into his office.
秘书把我领进他的办公室。
They ushered a new system into the workplace.
他们在职场中引人了一种新体系。
【近义词】introduce sth into 把某物引入……
【搭配】usher in sth 带来（新事物）
【例】The invention ushered in a new era.
这项发明开创了一个新时代。
The second is that even when companies do adopt the tech, they do not let people go. AI may simply help workers do their jobs faster, rather than making them redundant. Whatever the explanation, for now there is no need to panic.
第二种解释是即便公司采用了AI技术，他们也不会解雇员工。AI或许只是帮助员工更高效地完成工作，而非取代他们的岗位。总之，无论原因是什么，目前都无需惊慌。
课后练习
As artificial intelligence keeps advancing, many people worry that ____.
A. AI models will develop uncontrollable power
B. they will be replaced by AI in the job market
C. there will be a surplus of AI-generated videos
D. AI hallucinations will cause mass misinformationWhat does the author show regarding the demand for translators and interpreters?
A. Official data contradicts experts' claims about falling demand.
B. The University of Oxford study confirms rising job opportunities.
C. Automation has led to a significant decline in their employment.
D. The number of translators has decreased by 7% compared to last year.What does the Economist find about white-collar employees?
A. Their unemployment rate has significantly increased.
B. There is no evidence showing that they are hit by AI.
C. Wage growth for them has sharply declined.
D. AI is causing the demand for them to fall.One of the explanations for the current labour market trend is that ____.
A. most companies rely heavily on AI for core operations
B. most firms cannot afford the cost of mass adoption of AI
C. AI significantly increases the demand for low-skilled labour
D. human workers are needed to produce goods and services
