为什么人们难以理解气候风险(上)

你面前放着两个缸。每个缸里有100个球。有人清楚地告诉你第一个缸里有什么，里面有50个红球和50个黑球。

双语精读

Unknown unknowns: Why people struggle to understand climate risk

不为人知的未知事件：为什么人们难以理解气候风险

Placed before you are two urns. Each contains 100 balls. You are given a clear description of the first urn's contents, in which there are 50 red balls and 50 black balls.

你面前放着两个缸。每个缸里有100个球。有人清楚地告诉你第一个缸里有什么，里面有50个红球和50个黑球。

The economist running the experiment is tight-lipped about the second, saying only that there are 100 balls divided between red and black in some ratio.

进行这项实验的经济学家对第二个缸里有什么却守口如瓶，只说里面有100个球，红球和黑球各占某一比例。

Then you are offered a choice. Pick a red ball from an urn and you will get a million dollars. Which urn would you like to pull from? Now try again, but select a black ball. Which urn this time?

然后你可以进行选择。从缸中拿出一个红球，你就会得到一百万美元。你想从哪个缸里拿球？现在再试一次，但要拿出一个黑球。这次你选哪个缸？

Most people plump for the first urn both times, despite such a choice implying that there are both more and fewer red balls than in the second urn.

大多数人两次都会选择第一个缸，尽管这样的选择意味着第二个缸里的红球可能比第一个缸里的更多，也可能更少。

This fact is known as the Ellsberg paradox after Daniel Ellsberg, a researcher at the RAND corporation, a think-tank, better known for leaking documents detailing America's involvement in the Vietnam war. Ellsberg, who died on June 16th, called the behaviour ambiguity aversion.

这一事实被称为埃尔斯伯格悖论，名称源于以智囊团而著名的兰德公司的一位研究员丹尼尔·埃尔斯伯格，他更为人所知的事迹是泄露美国介入越南战争的详细文件。埃尔斯伯格于6月16日去世，他称这种行为是对模糊性的厌恶。

It was a deviation from the model of rational choice developed by John von Neumann, a mathematician, and a demonstration that knowing the likelihood of something can alter decision-making.

这并不符合数学家约翰·冯·诺伊曼建立的理性选择模型，也证明了解某事的可能性可以改变决策行为。

The experiment may seem like just another of the cutesy puzzles beloved by economists. In fact, it reveals a deeper problem facing the world as it struggles with climate change.

这个实验貌似只是深受经济学家喜爱的又一个矫揉造作的谜题。但事实上，它揭示了世界在努力应对气候变化时面临的一个更深层次的问题。

Not only are the probabilities of outcomes not known-the likelihood, say, of hurricanes in the Caribbean ten years from now-nor is the damage they might do.

不仅结果的可能性是未知的--比如，十年后加勒比海地区发生飓风的可能性--而且结果可能造成的损害也是未知的。

Ignorance of the future carries a cost today: ambiguity makes risks uninsurable, or at the very least prohibitively expensive. The less insurers know about risks, the more capital they need to protect their balance-sheets against possible losses.

对未来的无知在今天带来了代价：模糊性使风险无法投保，或者至少保险的价格高得令人望而却步。保险公司对风险的了解越少，他们就越需要更多的资本来保护自己的资产负债表，以防可能的损失。

In May State Farm, California's largest home-insurance provider, retreated from the market altogether, citing the cost of "rapidly growing catastrophe exposure".

今年5月，加州最大的家庭保险公司State Farm彻底退出了市场，理由是"迅速增长的灾难风险"带来巨大成本。

Gallagher Re, a broker, estimates that the price of reinsurance in America has increased 50% this year after disasters in California and Florida.

保险经纪公司Gallagher Re估计，在加州和佛罗里达州发生气候灾难后，美国再保险的价格今年上涨了50%。

Few firms mention climate change specifically-perhaps a legacy of Republican attacks on "woke capitalism"-but it lurks behind the rising cost of insuring homeowners against fires, floods and hurricanes.

很少有公司明确提到气候变化--这可能是共和党人攻击"觉醒资本主义"的遗留后果--但房主对火灾、洪水和飓风的保险成本不断上升，这一事实背后就潜伏着气候变化问题。

Insurance is a tool of climate adaptation. Indeed, actuaries have as big a role to play as activists in the fight against climate change. Without insurance, those whose homes burn in a wildfire or are destroyed by a flood will lose everything.

保险是适应气候变化的工具。事实上，在应对气候变化的斗争中，保险精算师有着和气候活动家一样的重要作用。如果没有保险，那些房屋被野火烧毁或被洪水摧毁的人将倾家荡产。

The destitute may become refugees. Insurance can also be a spur for corrective action. Higher premiums, which accurately reflect risk, provide an incentive to adapt sooner, whether by discouraging building in risky areas or encouraging people to move away from fire-prone land.

穷人可能会成为难民。保险也可以成为纠正措施的动力。更高的保险费准确地反映了风险，会激励人们更快地适应新环境，包括阻止在高风险地区建造建筑，以及鼓励人们离开火灾多发的地区。

If prices are wrong, society will be more hurt by a hotter world than otherwise would be the case. Politicians considering subsidies for home insurance on flood plains ought to take note.

如果保险价格不对，全球变暖对社会的伤害会更大。考虑为洪泛区的家庭提供保险补贴的政客们应该注意这一点。

词汇预习

• despite [高考]

  美[dɪˈspaɪt] | 英[dɪˈspaɪt]

  prep. 尽管；不管 n. 憎恨；轻视

• involvement [高考]

  美[ɪnˈvɑːlvmənt] | 英[ɪnˈvɒlvmənt]

  n. 卷入；牵连；参与；兴趣；恋爱关系；性关系

• risky [高考]

  美[ˈrɪski] | 英[ˈrɪski]

  adj. 危险的；冒险的；大胆的

• accurately [高考]

  美['ækjərətlɪ] | 英['ækjərətlɪ]

  adv. 准确地；精确地

• provider [高考]

  美[prəˈvaɪdɚ] | 英[prəˈvaɪdə(r)]

  n. 供应者；赡养者；养家糊口的人

• incentive [高考]

  美[ɪnˈsentɪv] | 英[ɪnˈsentɪv]

  adj. 刺激的；鼓励的 n. 刺激；鼓励；动机

• ratio [高考]

  美[ˈreɪʃioʊ] | 英[ˈreɪʃiəʊ]

  n. 比率；比例

• mathematician [高考]

  美[ˌmæθəməˈtɪʃn] | 英[ˌmæθəməˈtɪʃn]

  n. 数学家

• rational [高考]

  美[ˈræʃnəl] | 英[ˈræʃnəl]

  adj. 合理的；理性的；能推理的 n. 有理数

• exposure [高考]

  美[ɪkˈspoʊʒər] | 英[ɪkˈspəʊʒə(r)]

  n. 暴露；揭露；胶片；曝光时间；(在电视、报纸等媒体上的)亮相；挨冻

• alter [高考]

  美[ˈɔːltər] | 英[ˈɔːltə(r)]

  v. 改变；更改；阉割；切除卵巢

• economist [高考]

  美[ɪˈkɑnəmɪst] | 英[ɪˈkɒnəmɪst]

  n. 经济学家；[古]节俭的人

• legacy [高考]

  美[ˈleɡəsi] | 英[ˈleɡəsi]

  n. 遗赠物；先人或过去遗留下来的东西 adj. [计算机]旧系统的

• otherwise [高考]

  美[ˈʌðərwaɪz] | 英[ˈʌðəwaɪz]

  adv. 否则；不同地；在不同方面 adj. 不同的

• struggle [高考]

  美[ˈstrʌɡl] | 英[ˈstrʌɡl]

  vi. 努力；奋斗；斗争；挣扎 n. 斗争；竞争；奋斗

• adapt [高考]

  美[əˈdæpt] | 英[əˈdæpt]

  vt. 改编；使适应 vi. 适应；适合

• behaviour [高考]

  美[bɪˈheɪvjər] | 英[bɪˈheɪvjə(r)]

  n. 行为；举止；品行

• select [高考]

  美[sɪˈlekt] | 英[sɪˈlekt]

  v. 选择；挑选 adj. 精选的；优等的 n. 被挑选出来的人或物

• description [高考]

  美[dɪˈskrɪpʃn] | 英[dɪˈskrɪpʃn]

  n. 描述；刻画；类型；说明书

• tight [高考]

  美[taɪt] | 英[taɪt]

  adj. 紧的；紧身的；密集的；拮据的 adv. 紧紧地；牢固地；迅速地

• insurance [高考]

  美[ɪnˈʃʊrəns] | 英[ɪnˈʃʊərəns]

  n. 保险；保险费；安全保障

• adaptation [高考]

  美[ˌædæpˈteɪʃn] | 英[ˌædæpˈteɪʃn]

  n. 改编；改编成的作品；适应；【心】（感官）适应，适应性变化

• altogether [高考]

  美[ˌɔːltəˈɡeðər] | 英[ˌɔːltəˈɡeðə(r)]

  adv. 总共；完全；总的来说

• corporation [高考]

  美[ˌkɔːrpəˈreɪʃn] | 英[ˌkɔːpəˈreɪʃn]

  n. 公司；法人

• ought [高考]

  美[ˈɔːt] | 英[ˈɔːt]

  aux. 应该；应当；本该 vi. 应该，应当；大概

• tank [高考]

  美[tæŋk] | 英[tæŋk]

  n. 箱；罐；槽；贮水池；坦克 vt. 把 ... 储于槽中

• catastrophe [高考]

  美[kəˈtæstrəfi] | 英[kəˈtæstrəfi]

  n. 大灾难；大祸；彻底失败

• only that [高考]

  美[ˈonli ðæt] | 英[ˈəunli ðæt]

  adv. 只是(要不是；要是没有)

• ought to [高考]

  美[ˈɔːt tə] | 英[ˈɔːt tə]

  应该；应当

• would [高考]

  美[wʊd , wəd] | 英[wʊd , wəd]

  aux. 将；可能；大概；总会；愿意；will的过去式

• beloved [四级]

  美[bɪˈlʌvd , bɪˈlʌvɪd] | 英[bɪˈlʌvd , bɪˈlʌvɪd]

  adj. 心爱的 n. 爱人

• spur [四级]

  美[spɜːr] | 英[spɜː(r)]

  n. 支脉；刺激；马刺；鞭策 vt. 刺激；鞭策；促进

• decision-making [四级]

  美[dɪ'sɪʒn 'meɪkɪŋ] | 英[dɪ'sɪʒn 'meɪkɪŋ]

  n. 决策 adj. 决策的

• likelihood [四级]

  美[ˈlaɪklihʊd] | 英[ˈlaɪklihʊd]

  n. 可能性

• paradox [四级]

  美[ˈpærədɑːks] | 英[ˈpærədɒks]

  n. 悖论；似非而是的论点；自相矛盾的话

• demonstration [四级]

  美[ˌdemənˈstreɪʃn] | 英[ˌdemənˈstreɪʃn]

  n. 示范；表达；实证；示威游行

• broker [四级]

  美[ˈbroʊkər] | 英[ˈbrəʊkə(r)]

  n. 经纪人 vt. 安排；协商

• deviation [四级]

  美[ˌdiːviˈeɪʃn] | 英[ˌdiːviˈeɪʃn]

  n. 偏离；出轨；背弃 n. [数]偏差

• known for [四级]

  美[non fɔr] | 英[nəʊn fɔ:]

  以 ... 著称

• considering [四级]

  美[kənˈsɪdərɪŋ] | 英[kənˈsɪdərɪŋ]

  prep. 鉴于； 考虑到 conj. 就 ... 而言

• capitalism [六级]

  美[ˈkæpɪtlˌɪzəm] | 英[ˈkæpɪtəlɪzəm]

  n. 资本主义

• prone [六级]

  美[proʊn] | 英[prəʊn]

  adj. 易于 ... 的；有 ... 倾向的；俯卧的

• prohibitively [六级]

  美[proˈhɪbɪtɪvlɪ] | 英[prəʊˈhɪbɪtɪvlɪ]

  adv. 令人望而却步的；（价格）过高的

• plump [六级]

  美[plʌmp] | 英[plʌmp]

  adj. 丰满的；松软的；丰腴的；微胖的 v.（使）膨松；（使）鼓起；猛地摔下 adv. 骤降；直接地 n. 突然重重落下（的声音）

• destitute [专四]

  美[ˈdestɪtut] | 英[ˈdestɪtju:t]

  adj. 穷困的；赤贫的；缺乏的

• ambiguity [专四]

  美[ˌæmbɪˈɡjuːəti] | 英[ˌæmbɪˈɡjuːəti]

  n. 模棱两可；含糊不清

• aversion [专八]

  美[əˈvɜːrʒn] | 英[əˈvɜːʃn]

  n. 嫌恶；憎恨

重点讲解

Unknown unknowns: Why people struggle to understand climate risk

不为人知的未知事件：为什么人们难以理解气候风险

Unknown unknowns 不为人知的未知事件

（英文释义：Unknown unknowns are future outcomes, events, circumstances, or consequences that we cannot predict.）

【拓展】 known knowns 已知的已知

known unknowns  已知的未知

unknown knowns  未知的已知

content n. & a. & v.

1. 作名词

（1）内容，主题

【例】Her poetry has a good deal of political content.

她的诗歌包含大量的政治内容。

（2）（书的）目录

【例】a contents page 目录页

2. 作形容词：满意；满足

【例】We’ll be content with a respectable result in tomorrow’s match.

明天的比赛我们能够有个不失体面的结果就满意了。

3. 作动词：满足；满意

【例】Martina contented herself with a bowl of soup.

马丁娜喝了一碗汤就心满意足了。

Placed before you are two urns. Each contains 100 balls. You are given a clear description of the first urn's contents, in which there are 50 red balls and 50 black balls.

你面前放着两个缸。每个缸里有100个球。有人清楚地告诉你第一个缸里有什么，里面有50个红球和50个黑球。

Unknown unknowns 不为人知的未知事件

（英文释义：Unknown unknowns are future outcomes, events, circumstances, or consequences that we cannot predict.）

【拓展】 known knowns 已知的已知

known unknowns  已知的未知

unknown knowns  未知的已知

content n. & a. & v.

1. 作名词

（1）内容，主题

【例】Her poetry has a good deal of political content.

她的诗歌包含大量的政治内容。

（2）（书的）目录

【例】a contents page 目录页

2. 作形容词：满意；满足

【例】We’ll be content with a respectable result in tomorrow’s match.

明天的比赛我们能够有个不失体面的结果就满意了。

3. 作动词：满足；满意

【例】Martina contented herself with a bowl of soup.

马丁娜喝了一碗汤就心满意足了。

The economist running the experiment**** is**** tight-lipped**** about the second****,**** saying**** only**** that**** there are 100 balls divided between red and black in**** some**** ratio.****

进行这项实验的经济学家对第二个缸里有什么却守口如瓶，只说里面有100个球，红球和黑球各占某一比例。

Then**** you are offered a choice****.**** Pick**** a red ball**** from**** an**** urn and you will**** get a million dollars.**** Which urn would you like**** to**** pull**** from****?**** Now try again,**** but select**** a black ball****.**** Which urn this**** time****?****

然后你可以进行选择。从缸中拿出一个红球，你就会得到一百万美元。你想从哪个缸里拿球？现在再试一次，但要拿出一个黑球。这次你选哪个缸？

Most people plump for the first urn both times, despite such a choice implying that there are both more and fewer red balls than in the second urn.

大多数人两次都会选择第一个缸，尽管这样的选择意味着第二个缸里的红球可能比第一个缸里的更多，也可能更少。

plump for 慎重挑选；筛选

【例】Finally we plumped for a bottle of champagne.

最后我们选了一瓶香槟酒。

【拓展】plump v. & a.

1. 作动词：使变大；使更软

【例】He leaned forward while the nurse plumped up his pillows.

他往前够了够身子，让护士把枕头拍松了。

2. 作形容词

（1）松软的，饱满的

【例】plump cushions 松软的垫子

（2）丰腴的；微胖的

【例】The baby’s nice and plump.

那个婴儿很可爱，胖嘟嘟的。

This fact is known as the Ellsberg paradox after Daniel Ellsberg, a researcher at the RAND corporation, a think-tank, better known for leaking documents detailing America's involvement in the Vietnam war. Ellsberg, who died on June 16th, called the behaviour ambiguity aversion.

这一事实被称为埃尔斯伯格悖论，名称源于以智囊团而著名的兰德公司的一位研究员丹尼尔·埃尔斯伯格，他更为人所知的事迹是泄露美国介入越南战争的详细文件。埃尔斯伯格于6月16日去世，他称这种行为是对模糊性的厌恶。

paradox n.

1. 悖论

（英文释义：a statement that seems impossible because it contains two opposing ideas that are both true）

【例】The paradox is that fishermen would catch more fish if they fished less.

悖论就是: 如果渔夫减少捕鱼，反而会打到更多的鱼。

2. 矛盾的人（或事物、情况）

【例】He was a paradox—a loner who loved to chat to strangers.

他真是个矛盾人物，生性孤僻却又喜欢和陌生人闲聊。

ambiguity n. 模棱两可；不明确

【例】There was an element of ambiguity in the president’s reply.

总统的回答有点模棱两可。

【拓展】ambiguous a. 模棱两可的；不明确的

【例】The language in the Minister’s statement is highly ambiguous.

部长的声明措辞很含糊。

It was a deviation from the model of rational choice developed by John von Neumann, a mathematician, and a demonstration that knowing the likelihood of something can alter decision-making.

这并不符合数学家约翰·冯·诺伊曼建立的理性选择模型，也证明了解某事的可能性可以改变决策行为。

paradox n.

1. 悖论

（英文释义：a statement that seems impossible because it contains two opposing ideas that are both true）

【例】The paradox is that fishermen would catch more fish if they fished less.

悖论就是: 如果渔夫减少捕鱼，反而会打到更多的鱼。

2. 矛盾的人（或事物、情况）

【例】He was a paradox—a loner who loved to chat to strangers.

他真是个矛盾人物，生性孤僻却又喜欢和陌生人闲聊。

ambiguity n. 模棱两可；不明确

【例】There was an element of ambiguity in the president’s reply.

总统的回答有点模棱两可。

【拓展】ambiguous a. 模棱两可的；不明确的

【例】The language in the Minister’s statement is highly ambiguous.

部长的声明措辞很含糊。

The experiment may seem like just another of the cutesy puzzles beloved by economists. In fact, it reveals a deeper problem facing the world as it struggles with climate change.

这个实验貌似只是深受经济学家喜爱的又一个矫揉造作的谜题。但事实上，它揭示了世界在努力应对气候变化时面临的一个更深层次的问题。

beloved a. & n.

1. 作形容词：钟爱的；深受喜爱的

【例】He’s always talking about his beloved computer!

他老是在谈论他的宝贝电脑！

2. 作名词：心爱的人

【例】It was a gift from her beloved.

那是她心爱的人送的礼物。

Not only are the probabilities of outcomes not known-the likelihood, say, of hurricanes in the Caribbean ten years from now-nor is the damage they might do.

不仅结果的可能性是未知的--比如，十年后加勒比海地区发生飓风的可能性--而且结果可能造成的损害也是未知的。

beloved a. & n.

1. 作形容词：钟爱的；深受喜爱的

【例】He’s always talking about his beloved computer!

他老是在谈论他的宝贝电脑！

2. 作名词：心爱的人

【例】It was a gift from her beloved.

那是她心爱的人送的礼物。

Ignorance of the future carries a cost today: ambiguity makes risks uninsurable, or at the very least prohibitively expensive. The less insurers know about risks, the more capital they need to protect their balance-sheets against possible losses.

对未来的无知在今天带来了代价：模糊性使风险无法投保，或者至少保险的价格高得令人望而却步。保险公司对风险的了解越少，他们就越需要更多的资本来保护自己的资产负债表，以防可能的损失。

prohibitively ad. 高昂得令人难以承受地；贵得买不起地

【例】Moving house would be prohibitively expensive.

搬家的费用可能会高得惊人。

【拓展】prohibitive a.

1. 高昂得令人难以承受的；贵得买不起的

【例】The price of property in the city is prohibitive.

城市的房地产价格令人望而却步。

2. （以法令）禁止的

【例】prohibitive regulations 禁律

In May State Farm, California's largest home-insurance provider, retreated from the market altogether, citing the cost of "rapidly growing catastrophe exposure".

今年5月，加州最大的家庭保险公司State Farm彻底退出了市场，理由是"迅速增长的灾难风险"带来巨大成本。

exposure n.

1. 面临，遭受（危险或不快）

【例】the company's exposure on the foreign exchange markets 公司面对外汇市场的风险

2. 揭露，暴露

【例】the exposure of illegal currency deals 对非法交易货币的揭露

3. （在电视、报纸等上的）亮相，被报道

【例】Her new movie has had a lot of exposure in the media.

她的新电影媒体有很多报道。

Gallagher Re, a broker, estimates that the price of reinsurance in America has increased 50% this year after disasters in California and Florida.

保险经纪公司Gallagher Re估计，在加州和佛罗里达州发生气候灾难后，美国再保险的价格今年上涨了50%。

exposure n.

1. 面临，遭受（危险或不快）

【例】the company's exposure on the foreign exchange markets 公司面对外汇市场的风险

2. 揭露，暴露

【例】the exposure of illegal currency deals 对非法交易货币的揭露

3. （在电视、报纸等上的）亮相，被报道

【例】Her new movie has had a lot of exposure in the media.

她的新电影媒体有很多报道。

Few firms mention climate change specifically-perhaps a legacy of Republican attacks on "woke capitalism"-but it lurks behind the rising cost of insuring homeowners against fires, floods and hurricanes.

很少有公司明确提到气候变化--这可能是共和党人攻击"觉醒资本主义"的遗留后果--但房主对火灾、洪水和飓风的保险成本不断上升，这一事实背后就潜伏着气候变化问题。

exposure n.

1. 面临，遭受（危险或不快）

【例】the company's exposure on the foreign exchange markets 公司面对外汇市场的风险

2. 揭露，暴露

【例】the exposure of illegal currency deals 对非法交易货币的揭露

3. （在电视、报纸等上的）亮相，被报道

【例】Her new movie has had a lot of exposure in the media.

她的新电影媒体有很多报道。

Insurance is a tool of climate adaptation. Indeed, actuaries have as big a role to play as activists in the fight against climate change. Without insurance, those whose homes burn in a wildfire or are destroyed by a flood will lose everything.

保险是适应气候变化的工具。事实上，在应对气候变化的斗争中，保险精算师有着和气候活动家一样的重要作用。如果没有保险，那些房屋被野火烧毁或被洪水摧毁的人将倾家荡产。

destitute a.

1. 贫困的；贫穷的

【例】When he died, his family was left completely destitute.

他死时家里一贫如洗。

2. 缺乏；没有

【例】They seem destitute of ordinary human feelings.

他们似乎一点人情味都没有。

premium n. & a.

1. 作名词

（1）保险费

【例】insurance premiums 保险费

（2）额外费用；附加费

【例】You have to pay a high premium for express delivery.

快递须付高额的附加费。

2. 作形容词：高昂的；优质的

【例】premium ice cream 优质冰激凌

The destitute may become refugees. Insurance can also be a spur for corrective action. Higher premiums, which accurately reflect risk, provide an incentive to adapt sooner, whether by discouraging building in risky areas or encouraging people to move away from fire-prone land.

穷人可能会成为难民。保险也可以成为纠正措施的动力。更高的保险费准确地反映了风险，会激励人们更快地适应新环境，包括阻止在高风险地区建造建筑，以及鼓励人们离开火灾多发的地区。

destitute a.

1. 贫困的；贫穷的

【例】When he died, his family was left completely destitute.

他死时家里一贫如洗。

2. 缺乏；没有

【例】They seem destitute of ordinary human feelings.

他们似乎一点人情味都没有。

premium n. & a.

1. 作名词

（1）保险费

【例】insurance premiums 保险费

（2）额外费用；附加费

【例】You have to pay a high premium for express delivery.

快递须付高额的附加费。

2. 作形容词：高昂的；优质的

【例】premium ice cream 优质冰激凌

If prices are wrong, society will be more hurt by a hotter world than otherwise would be the case. Politicians considering subsidies for home insurance on flood plains ought to take note.

如果保险价格不对，全球变暖对社会的伤害会更大。考虑为洪泛区的家庭提供保险补贴的政客们应该注意这一点。

take note 注意到；将…铭记在心

【例】Take note of what he says.

牢记他说的话。

【拓展】of note  重要的；引人注目的

【例】The museum contains nothing of great note.

这家博物馆没有什么很有价值的东西。

课后练习

• The experiment of the two urns shows that ____.

  A. people are willing to take risks to get a reward

  B. intuition sometimes works better than reasoning

  C. most people prefer predictability to uncertainty

  D. it is impossible to always make the right decision

• What does the experiment reveal about climate change?

  A. Speedy action is urgently needed.

  B. Prevention is better than remedy.

  C. Improving forecast can reduce ambiguity.

  D. Uncertainty pushes up the price of insurance.

• One of the functions of insurance is that ____.

  A. it raises people’s awareness of climate change

  B. it prevents people from taking risks

  C. it helps climate refugees to relocate

  D. it motivates people to adapt to risky environment.

• The author’s attitude towards subsidies for home insurance is ____.

  A. supportive

  B. opposing

  C. uncertain

  D. approving